2016 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: June

It’s that time of year again, American League starting pitcher tier update time! I still pay no attention to ERA, as it’s not a metric I use for evaluation and ranking pitchers for rest of season performance. Player movement between tiers will only occur when there’s a change in underlying skill, pitch mix, or velocity.

Tiers are named for the best characters on the brilliant FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

Tanaka (The P*nis Monster)

Chris Sale

Last rankings update, I voiced my concern that Sale was supposedly choosing to alter his approach to more of a pitch to contact one. Riiiight, like a consensus top five pitcher in baseball needed to change things up. In the starts since the tier update, Sale’s strikeout rate has been at a more Sale-like 27.1%, though his ERA during the time period was at 3.06. Why the jump? Luck neutralization of course! He remains top dog.

Chip (The Robot)

Corey Kluber
David Price

Kluber’s fastball velocity is no longer a concern as it has steadily trended upward through the season. Of course, now he’s struggling to strand baserunners, which is why his ERA sits above 4.00, despite a 3.36 SIERA. And look at what a little decent defense did for his supposed “hittability”! Last year his BABIP was a league average .297, and this year it’s been similar at .294. Either he learned overnight how to get batters to hit ’em where his fielders are, or he’s just gotten better defensive support and his fortunes turned for the better. I’m going to go with the latter. As usual, excellent acquisition target if you can pry him away at less than a top starter price.

Price’s ERA was at 6.14 during my last tier update, which is crazy, especially given a 2.68 SIERA. His SIERA has since risen due to a skills decline, but ERA has dropped below 4.00 in the last month. The window to buy him at a potential discount is going to quickly close.

Jesus Christ

Carlos Carrasco

The state of American League pitching just ain’t very good. This tier began the season with four pitchers. It’s down to one. I considered simply eliminating a tier and merging this with the next, but I think there’s a clear gap between Carrasco and anyone else. He is expected to come off the DL to make tonight’s start and should quickly validate his spot near the top of the AL rankings.

Adolf Hitler

Dallas Keuchel
Chris Archer
Felix Hernandez
Cole Hamels
Masahiro Tanaka
Danny Salazar
Michael Pineda
Justin Verlander
Rich Hill
Drew Smyly
Yu Darvish

Welcome Dallas Keuchel and Chris Archer! I stubbornly left you two in the same tier as my preseason rankings, but there has clearly been some skills degradation. Keuchel’s velocity has jumped since opening the year, but it remains down a mile per hour below last season. I’d bet he posted a sub-4.00 ERA the rest of the way, but that won’t make him any better than the rest of this group. Archer’s control hasn’t improved, but he still has the strong strikeout rate and I’m not going any lower on him just yet. Plus, a lot of this has just been bad luck — his HR/FB rate isn’t going to remain above 20%.

Yeah, Felix is injured, but I don’t want to keep moving pitchers up and down to handle potentially short DL-stints. He was already dropped a tier last update and his skills haven’t come all the way back to vintage Felix levels.

Masahiro Tanaka’s strikeout rate is down, but he’s generating significantly more ground balls. I’d prefer the strikeouts. But hey, at least he’s healthy!

I wish I could believe in this apparent performance surge for Danny Salazar, but alas, I cannot. It’s all about that big LOB% and tiny HR/FB rate, but check out that bloated walk rate. All in all, his SIERA is actually up from last year. Still good, but in no way worthy of a tier promotion.

I’m ready for the pitchforks. Michael Pineda remains in the same tier he opened the season in. 6.92 ERA and all. Unless he’s injured, I need to see some evidence that he’s going to continue to allow an inflated BABIP and HR/FB rate and post a suppressed LOB%. This is the Pineda challenge. While his LD% is a touch high and he’s induced just one pop-up all year, that doesn’t justify any BABIP level. If his BABIP was .700, surely you would expect better, right?! Besides, those rates should improve, because he’s been better in the past.

Justin Verlander since last update — 31% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 2.95 SIERA.

This is essentially as high as Rich Hill will find himself in these rankings, regardless of his performance. It’s going to be an innings/injury question all season long, so just enjoy the ride for those brave souls who bought him on draft day!

Step off the ledge, Drew Smyly owners, I feel your pain. The skills have definitely been down over the last month, but his velocity is fine and he’s still generating swings and misses. He’ll get that ERA back below 4.00 soon enough.

Welcome back Yu Darvish! I have cautiously assigned him to this tier, as his first start velocity surge is a big positive. However, TJ surgery returnees typically struggle with control, which is something Darvish has battled in the past. So there is definitely lots of risk here.

Patti (Josh’s Mom)

Marcus Stroman
Jake Odorizzi
Taijuan Walker
Jose Quintana
Ian Kennedy
Kevin Gausman
Matt Moore
Aaron Sanchez
Sonny Gray

Jose Quintana continues to dazzle, but this time, it was the 3.1% HR/FB rate he has posted in the last month. He has allowed just two homers all season for a microscopic 2.9% mark. That’s going up.

Ian Kennedy is a perfect example of how important defensive support is. After two straight seasons of a .300+ BABIP, that mark has fallen to just .260, thanks to the league’s best defense.

Kevin Gausman has continued to impress, as his splitter has been elite. I worry about his innings and injury history, but he should keep performing.

I still expect Matt Moore to rebound, as his velocity is good and he’s getting the whiffs. Career highs in both BABIP and HR/FB rate are killing him.

I’m an Aaron Sanchez fan, but still worry those control issues of the past could creep back up. More importantly, how many innings is he going to throw this year after about 100 last season?

I dropped Sonny Gray a tier, not sure what to do with him. When will he be back and was his injury the explanation for his struggles?

Mike

Jordan Zimmermann
Hisashi Iwakuma
Collin McHugh
Yordano Ventura
Carlos Rodon
Josh Tomlin
Jesse Hahn
Rick Porcello
Nathan Eovaldi
Nate Karns
Chris Tillman
Mike Fiers
Danny Duffy
Michael Fulmer

I urged you to sell Jordan Zimmermann in my last tier update, and since, he has posted an ugly 4.88 ERA, as his great fortune finally disappeared. He actually drops a tier thanks to his puny strikeout rate and 4.36 SIERA. His next good start, SELL, SELL, SELL!

Yordano Ventura continues to stink, BUT! There’s some good news — his velocity, which was down all season spiked in his May 17th start and his top three velocity games have now come in his last three starts. I was worried that a complete loss of control and velocity decline screamed injury, but now I’m slightly less concerned. He was dropped in my 12-team mixed league and I even picked him up. We’ll see how that turns out, as we know the upside is high.

Aaaaand look at that, Nathan Eovaldi is no longer “hittable”, as his BABIP has dropped below the league average to .290. He has sustained his ground ball rate surge from last year and the strikeouts are up. I thought about moving him up a tier for the second straight update, but he couldn’t sustain that April strikeout rate surge in May.

Guess what. Chris Tillman has reverted back to the weak pitcher he had been. Since the last update, his SIERA jumped to 4.57 after a strikeout rate and skills surge in April. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and keep him here since he still maintained a 20%+ strikeout rate in May, which is still well above his last two seasons.

Mike Fiers’ good game last night may allow him to keep his rotation spot for the time being and his ERA should continue to improve given respectable skills. I’d like to know where the strikeouts went though, which is why he did drop a tier.

Santa

Sean Manaea
R.A. Dickey
Marco Estrada
Wade Miley
Ervin Santana
Edinson Volquez
Kyle Gibson
Kendall Graveman
Trevor Bauer
Ricky Nolasco
Nicholas Tropeano
Eduardo Rodriguez
Steven Wright
Tyler Duffey
Matt Shoemaker

Despite big strikeout rates in the minors, Sean Manaea hasn’t really fooled Major League hitters yet. While he did whiff eight last night, his SwStk% heading into the game was a pedestrian 8.0%, primarily due to a weak fastball.

Marco Estrada is doing it again, but even better! His BABIP has dropped even further to .207, which is somewhat supported by a low line drive rate and high fly ball and pop-up rates. He’s basically the new Chris Young.

Nicholas Tropeano never had such control issues in the minors, so this is surprising. His fly ball rate is scary as well. But I love the SwStk%!