2016 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: April

Alas, it’s tier time. Your first chance to either praise my crystal ball or politely ask precisely what it is that I’m smoking. Full disclosure — I’m not a fan of tiers. To be honest, I’m not sure what the point of them is. In my mind, you’re only doing half the work. Calculate dollar values that indicate exactly who you project to perform better, rather than throw up your hands and lump a group of pitchers together arbitrarily.

Reminders:

• This is American League only rankings! No, I did not forget about Clayton Kershaw or your favorite sleeper who isn’t, Raisel Iglesias.
• My rankings are almost a straight sorting of my projected dollar values earned.
• Tiers are determined in the aforementioned arbitrary way. The gaps are easier to separate toward the top, completely random as we get further down the list.
• For the first time, I have made adjustments to the rankings, somewhat reducing the impact of my innings pitched projection. This is the R.A. Dickey Adjustment. You want better ratios and can worry about innings limits later in the season. For now, you just desire the best performance.

Because I’m too lazy to come up with new tiers, once again, they will be named after characters from the brilliant FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

Tanaka (The P*nis Monster)

Chris Sale

Sale gets the top tier all to himself. Although his dominance over the field is nowhere near that of Kershaw’s, he is still clearly a notch above everyone else. Though the White Sox defense figures to be terrible again, we have to assume Sale’s BABIP drops from the .323 mark he posted last year.

Chip (The Robot)

Corey Kluber
David Price

Depending on your league, Corey Kluber seems to be one of the most undervalued aces. Of course, when all you’re looking at are the surface stats, it’s easy to see why. His 3.49 ERA was inflated by a low LOB% (given his underlying skills) and his sub-3.00 SIERA suggests he actually pitched much better. The Indians defense is actually projected to be well above average this year, so that’s not longer a concern. He’s as much of a lock as anyone to pitch 220 innings, which boosts his strikeout and win potential.

David Price isn’t going to post another 2.45 ERA again, unless he once again benefits from a heaping of good fortune. But he has sustained his strikeout rate spike and even posted the highest SwStk% mark of his career. He pairs that strikeout ability with pinpoint control and pitches in front of what should be a pretty good defense.

Jesus Christ

Felix Hernandez
Dallas Keuchel
Carlos Carrasco
Chris Archer

All of these guys are fantastic and could pitch at [tier] levels. Felix Hernandez drops from the top tier last year as he ended the season with an elbow issue after posting his highest walk rate since 2011. It makes him a bit riskier than normal, but we know how good a healthy Felix can be.

Dallas Keuchel proved that his 2014 breakout was no fluke. He’s not going to repeat that .269 BABIP, but his sub-3.00 SIERA suggests that he doesn’t need to in order to remain a top tier pitcher. I’m more concerned about strikeout and walk rate regression, but a 60%+ ground ball rate gives him substantial margin for some deterioration of those skills that there’s little chance of him reverting to pre-2014 form.

It warms my heart that Carlos Carrasco has vaulted toward the top, just as I had high hopes would eventually occur all the way back in 2013 when I commanded you not to sleep on him. Turning his raw stuff into strong mound performance took longer than expected, but it did finally happen. He still needs to prove he is capable of throwing 200 innings before he could join the elite.

Chris Archer booster his slider usage, a pitch that last season generated the highest SwStk% of Archer’s short career. More sliders + whiffier sliders = strikeout rate spike. It would be foolish to expect such a performance again, but he’s not going to regress back to the 20% range of 2013 and 2014.

Adolf Hitler

Cole Hamels
Sonny Gray
Masahiro Tanaka
Danny Salazar
Garrett Richards
Michael Pineda
Marcus Stroman
Justin Verlander

Even with some expected luck regression for Sonny Gray, he’s still an easy call for this tier. Of course, if his ERA jumps higher to meet his SIERA marks, then that’s a different story. He has posted well below average BABIP marks, supported by low LD% rates, in nearly 500 innings now. There has to be at least a little skill involved, even if we’re not sure how he’s accomplishing it.

For as long as his arm remains attached, Masahiro Tanaka will be excellent. Last year’s suppressed BABIP offset his inflated HR/FB rate and makes for a strange combination. If you think the high HR/FB rate was a result of batters squaring up pitches easily and hitting the ball hard, then how do you explain the low BABIP?! It’s why we call them the luck metrics.

So apparently in spring Garrett Richards found even more velocity. He already averages in the mid-90s, so it’s not like he needs any extra juice. But perhaps some additional oomph could push his fastball’s SwStk% higher and help him get back to that 2014 strikeout rate.

I love Michael Pineda and there’s no need to look any further than that shiny 3.09 SIERA to learn how he truly pitched last season. He suffered from both horrible defensive support and an inflated HR/FB rate, two issues he hadn’t dealt with previously, so we can’t call this a trend. Like Tanaka, health and innings will remain a question mark, but while on the mound, he should be wonderful.

With an assortment of pitches, a major ground ball tilt, and excellent control, it seems like the individual parts may be better than the whole of Marcus Stroman. Last season over relatively small samples, none of his pitches were any good from a whiff-inducing perspective. I think there’s probably some significant strikeout rate upside here, but he may need to consolidate his repertoire and figure out his best pitch mix.

Patti (Josh’s Mom)

Hisashi Iwakuma
Collin McHugh
Rich Hill
Jake Odorizzi
Drew Smyly
Jordan Zimmermann
Taijuan Walker
Luis Severino
Jose Quintana
Ian Kennedy
Yordano Ventura
Mike Fiers
Clay Buchholz

Rich Hill is clearly the name that stands out here. I honestly could have placed him in just about any tier below this and not been asked about it. Because, really, we have no idea what kind of performance he’s going to give us and how many innings he’s going to last. My projection put him here, but my projection was a complete shot in the dark. It makes the assumption that you can’t fluke your way into what he did last year in four starts and there was seemingly an explanation for his newfound success. As you might imagine, he could easily disappear completely from these rankings a month or two from now or justify his spot.

Drew Smyly is the perfect type of pitcher to grab in shallower leagues. He’s only thrown more than 150 innings once as a professional (and just 153 at that) and he returned last season from a torn labrum in his shoulder, which he opted not to have surgery on. He’s a serious health risk, but the shoulder did not affect his performance last year and his skills were excellent. In shallow leagues where solid replacement pitchers are available, he’s a great asset, as it’s not as troublesome to replace him if he gets hurt again.

Taijuan Walker has scrapped his cutter and replaced it with a slider. The cutter never induced swings and misses, or ground balls, so can the slider be any worse?! It’s worth making the switch to see what happens and could easily be the jolt that fuels the breakout. Or, he could simply enjoy better luck, as the HR/FB rate drops and LOB% rises. He posted a 3.69 SIERA last year, so the surface results merely have to catch up with the underlying skills.

Ian Kennedy is almost definitely higher on here than most would expect. He was part of my bold predictions posted on Friday, where I explained that the world-leading Royals defense will benefit Kennedy greatly. Speaking of Royals, Yordano Ventura is in a similar spot as Walker, as the underlying skills are already there, he just needs better fortune for his ERA to match those skills.

Let’s see how many innings Clay Buchholz could throw this year. We haven’t heard any health issues yet! He’s another excellent shallow leaguer as the performance should be there for as long as he can remain on the field.

Mike

Lance McCullers
Kyle Gibson
Kevin Gausman
Yu Darvish
Carlos Rodon
Josh Tomlin
Anibal Sanchez
Jesse Hahn
Rick Porcello
Erasmo Ramirez
Kris Medlen
Chris Young
Matt Moore
Nathan Eovaldi
Nate Karns
Aaron Sanchez

Here’s your nice collection of mixed league potentials and streamers, and also breakout candidates.

Lance McCullers would have been higher if not for the shoulder issue. His innings was already going to be capped, but this reduces that innings total even further and now adds performance risk to the equation.

Kyle Gibson is an interesting breakout candidate as he made my list of spring strikeout rate surgers. He already has an excellent pair of secondary pitches in the slider and changeup, it’s just his fastball that has generated a pathetic rate of swings and misses. His two-seamer induces tons of grounders, so it doesn’t need to get whiffs, but his four-seamer doesn’t get those grounders. Perhaps he should scrap the four-seamer entirely, and stick with the two-seamer, slider, and changeup.

Kevin Gausman was an exciting breakout candidate after posting a 3.69 SIERA last year, but shoulder trouble has landed him on the DL. That’s always a concern, so we’ll see if it affects his velocity and performance.

There has been lots of excitement about Yu Darvish’s return, but coming back from TJ surgery is always a significant performance risk. Add to that it’s penchant for robbing pitchers of their control early on, and you have to be realistic about what Darvish is going to do, as he has struggled with control at times historically.

Speaking of control, Carlos Rodon needs to improve it. It’s something that could happen overnight, unlike praying for a strikeout rate spike, but it’s still just hoping, rather than expecting. Obviously, with that slider, and a changeup that generated a 16% SwStk%, the stuff foundation is there.

Kris Medlen’s velocity was up a bit during the spring, and being further removed from TJ surgery, I like him as even a mixed league asset. Innings though, is the big question mark.

Matt Moore’s fastball velocity rebounded and his performance spiked upon returning from the minors last year. His velocity remains well down from his 2012 season, but he should be a mixed league asset and provide much improved results from his overall 2015 season.

Aaron Sanchez is another intriguing breakout candidate given his spring peripherals. He has a high octane fastball that generates gobs of ground balls, but that has been it. He needs to improve his control and develop secondary pitches that can make batters swing and miss. With a 60% ground ball rate, the upside here is high, but there’s lots of work to be done.

Santa

R.A. Dickey
Marco Estrada
Phil Hughes
Wade Miley
Ubaldo Jimenez
Ervin Santana
Andrew Heaney
Mat Latos
Edinson Volquez
Doug Fister

R.A. Dickey finds himself all the way down here and I am sure you are ecstatic. His 200+ innings is great for strikeout and win potential, but those strikeouts were diminished last year. At age 41, who knows if they return.

There is a rather boring collection of veterans, for the most part. Andrew Heaney had lady luck on his side last year, posting an ERA nearly a run lower than his SIERA. So that’s why he’s not higher. Doug Fister might be interesting if his apparent velocity rebound helps him get back to his 2011-2014 performance levels.

Liz

J.A. Happ
Jered Weaver
Derek Holland
Matt Shoemaker
Joe Kelly
Yovani Gallardo
Hector Santiago
Eduardo Rodriguez
Chris Bassitt
C.J. Wilson
Martin Perez
Kendall Graveman
Tommy Milone
Cody Anderson
Shane Greene

Aaaaaand the rest. Eduardo Rodriguez would be higher if not for his knee injury that’s going to keep him out for the month. He brings a big fastball and solid changeup. Cody Anderson’s spring velocity spike was the talk of Cleveland and was enough to win him a rotation spot, which shockingly helped push Trevor Bauer to the bullpen. I get excited about velocity spikes, but he’s coming off such a low strikeout rate to begin with, he’ll need that velocity surge to reallllllllllly help his strikeout ability to become mixed league relevant. After I discussed Shane Greene at this year’s Baseball HQ First Pitch Forum with Ron Shandler, mentioning that Greene is a great speculation in AL-Only leagues, he posted an excellent strikeout rate in the spring, suggesting good health. Sadly, I missed out on rostering him in Tout Wars, because someone else decided to took the plunge. Who, you ask? Ron Shandler of course. Thanks Ron! The only reason Greene remains down there is that Daniel Norris looms and I’m not sure how long Greene stays in the rotation. Obviously, if he pitches real well, he’s probably not going anywhere. Guess we’ll find out in a couple of weeks.