The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More

Agenda

1. Annual State of the Grind Address
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Happ, Hill, Valencia, Span
5. Factor Grid

1. Annual State of the Grind Address

Welcome back to The Daily Grind. I’ve been hosting this column since 2012. I dug up this gem from April 24 featuring recommendations to try Chris Sale, Carlos Gomez, and Chris Davis. Also blasts from the past like Ryan Sweeney, Luke Scott, Chris Heisey, and KBO star Eric Thames.

The core of the post still has much in common with that earlier iteration. I make some picks for today. I make some picks for tomorrow. Analysis of today’s picks (Daily DFS) will focus on FanDuel and DraftKings picks. Tomorrow’s Targets are streaming picks for the traditional fantasy audience.

Last season, I regularly presented ground ball and fly ball splits. Those were supplied daily by Jeff Zimmerman. We’re going to be doing it a little differently this year. Sometime in the next couple weeks, I’ll create a list of the players who are best against ground ball and fly ball pitchers. I have some modest secondary analysis planned. Jeff’s mentioned his own plans for more vigorous testing of GB/FB splits.

SaberSim Observations will return. FanGraphs partnered with SaberSim mid-2015, and the tool proved useful in identifying the best picks of the day. I may shake up the analysis in that section from time to time – just to keep everyone (including me) on their toes.

The Factor Grid is also back with all the same wonderful data. The grid includes only the most important park factors – overall run production, home runs by handedness, and a weather rating for home runs. I also include notes about rain and other notable weather conditions. If you’d also like park factors for doubles, I recommend FanGraphs Guts! Do remember to double all the factors (i.e. a 115 factor is really 130).

Changes to FanDuel Scoring

FanDuel has changed their scoring…sort of. The points system is identical to last year, but they’ve multiplied everything by three. The pitcher win remains incredibly overvalued compared to other platforms. As such, it’s important to target guys who will last deep into their starts.

2. Daily DFS – Weather, Scherzer, Kershaw, Iglesias

We have interesting weather effects with which to contend today. The Astros-Yankees game is almost certain to be rained out. The Twins-Orioles game is also at risk, but it looks like the kind of forecast that will only delay the game. These can be opportunities although I wouldn’t use either pitcher involved (even if I liked them).

It’s a cold day in Cleveland which also offers an interesting lesson. If Corey Kluber and David Price are comfortable working in the chill, they should dominate opposing hitters. However, some pitchers just can’t deal with cold weather – it’s a warm weather sport after all. In this case, I’m betting on the pitchers over the hitters.

Before the rain ruined my plans, I had intended to use Dallas Keuchel today. He doesn’t have the strikeout upside of the top aces, but he’s relatively likely to go the distance while inducing heaps of soft contact. Alas, I think it’s a day to pony up for Max Scherzer in Atlanta or Clayton Kershaw in San Diego. You’ll need to pull some stunts with your lineup to differentiate yourself.

If you’re somebody who likes cheaper pitching, the only reasonable bets are Jeremy Hellickson and Raisel Iglesias. They both have a roughly even chance to earn a win while throwing six innings with six strikeouts. I’m convinced Hellickson is better than most believe. He made mechanical adjustments mid-2015 and became a decent pitcher. Nothing special – something like a 3.50 ERA with 8.00 K/9.

Stack Targets: Wily Peralta, Jorge de la Rosa, Chris Tillman, Ervin Santana, R.A. Dickey, Julio Teheran, Drew Smyly, Jeremy Hellickson

Usually, I won’t offer an further explanation for my stack target picks. Simply choose a pitcher to exploit and stack a lineup against him. It’s pretty simple. There doesn’t even need to be a lot of science involved. I do recommend going with positive park and weather conditions unless you’re intentionally playing a fade (aka an unpopular stack).

This being Opening Day, most of the pitchers are pretty good. Chris Tillman is the one guy I see turning in a near-automatic disaster. I worry Tillman will be out of the rotation by mid-season. By all means, take spring stats with a grain of stat. But don’t ignore them when they agree with recent trends. Tillman threw 13.2 spring innings with 19 hits, 11 runs, 4 home runs, 10 walks, and 13 strikeouts. On the bright side, I guess he induced a few whiffs.

As I noted in the Field of Streams podcast, I like the Phillies and Reds at Cincinnati.

3. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim disagrees with my assessment of the Reds-Phillies matchup. Iglesias is listed as the third most valuable pitcher (behind the two obvious guys) while Hellickson is near the bottom of the pile. A few things are happening here.

Iglesias is projected to throw 7.1 innings. I’m not buying it. While the Reds will need him to go deep into his starts if they hope to win, I don’t think they’ll cut him loose on Opening Day. I’m expecting about six frames.

The projection system loves the Giants relative to their prices. They’re a good buying opportunity versus Wily Peralta. Remember, projection systems are basically regression machines. Nobody is more heavily regressed than new players. Prepare to “overpay” for good rookies relative to SaberSim’s projections.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Happ, Hill, Valencia, Span

Pitchers to Start: Happ is taking his second tour in Toronto. Unfortunately, most fantasy players really wanted him to re-sign with Pittsburgh. He made improvements to how he used his repertoire in Pittsburgh which translated to more innings per start, a tiny walk rate, and better than a strikeout per inning. He’ll be up against a very aggressive Rays lineup at Tropicana Field. That will lower his opportunity for strikeouts while increasing his chance to pitch deep into the game. His offense could supply him with an easy win.

Also consider: Jon Niese, Chad Bettis

Pitchers to Exploit: After a lot of offseason analysis, I’m just not buying Rich Hill’s fantastic September as repeatable. His 90 mph fastball carried him with big whiff rates and a .130 BABIP. People talk about his big curve, but it performed like an average curve.

More importantly, I worry about pitchers who can’t hit the strike zone in games that don’t count – 15 walks in 12 spring innings. Besides, the other exploit options all have reasons to try them too.

Also consider: Andrew Heaney

Hitters (power): At one point early in the draft season, Danny Valencia was owned in just two percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s up to 22 percent owned. As a regular clean up hitter with third base and outfield eligibility, he should be a useful source of power production. He’s not a must own player against Jose Quintana, but it’s always nice to see him with the platoon advantage.

Also consider: Jedd Gyorko, Nick Castellanos, Steve Pearce, Franklin Gutierrez, Jake Lamb, Melky Cabrera, Mark Canha, Jed Lowrie, Chase Utley,

Hitters (speed): Let’s talk Denard Span since he’s already flirting with a 50 percent ownership rate. I may not have many opportunities to recommend him.

With excellent plate discipline and contact skills, Span has developed into one of the toughest outs in baseball. You aren’t likely to get power production from him – even at Miller Park. His gap power fits well with his home stadium. He’s the undisputed Giants leadoff man, meaning you’ll get four or five chances at a hit, walk, and/or stolen base.

Also consider: Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Guyer, Ryan Goins, Leonys Martin, Socrates Brito, Jimmy Rollins, Austin Jackson, Carl Crawford

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

As mentioned, watch out for rain and cold in New York, Baltimore, and Cleveland. Texas is the best place to bet on home runs – at least per the weather report.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.