Episode 276
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette enjoy a Sunday freestyle, touring the day’s slate and discussing what interests them.
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Today’s Roto Riteup loudly celebrates the true beginning of the NFL season.
On today’s agenda:
1. Uh Oh, Tulo
2. Various news and notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options
Today’s Roto Riteup quietly wishes the postseason was upon us.
On today’s agenda:
1. Various news and notes
2. Streaming Pitcher Options
Agenda
Guess who leads the league in holds? Tony Watson! He held his 36th tonight. Guess who leads the league in saves? Mark Melancon! He saved his 45th tonight. The back end of the Pirates bullpen has paid dividends for you if you held on to Melancon through his early season struggles, OR if you picked up Watson in hopes he’d get the closer gig. The Pirates pen has the third best ERA in the majors for 2015, trailing only the Royals and Cardinals. Yes, there are other measures, but the Pirates pen has definitely been stout. Joakim Soria has only brought a 13.4% K%-BB% to the table since he came aboard at the trade deadline, but he has seven holds after tonight.
Javier Baez has been getting quite a bit of acclaim since returning to the Cubs with his reduced strikeout rate. In 2014, Baez had a 42% strikeout rate (K%) in the majors and 2015 value of 22% K% looks to be a huge improvement. Don’t get too excited about this small sample of data as his swing strike rate (SwStr%) points to a strikeout rate which will likely increase quickly.
Historically, a hitter’s strikeout rate correlates almost identically to their swinging strike rate. The reason to use SwStr% instead of K% is because it stabilizes a bit faster. I took all hitters since 2002 who had at least 200 plate appearances in a season and found the linear correlation between their strikeout rate and swinging strike rate. The R-squared between the two values was .947 with the equation working out to:
K% = 2.25 * SwStr%
With this little bit of information, here is a look at Baez’s stats in the majors the past two seasons.
Season: SwStr%, Predicted K%, Actual K%
2014: 19.2%, 43.2%, 41.5%
2015: 18.5%, 41.6%, 22.2%
Episode 111 – Weird Is Still The Word
The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!
In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Paul Sporer discuss the differences of September baseball, Welington Castillo’s stellar nickname, Chris Davis being able to mash lefties, Joey Votto almost being a bargain despite his high price, more Rays righties and giving Steve Adams props for seeing the future, comparing Joe Panik to Joey Votto, comparing Joe Panik to Luis Valbuena, refusing to pick pitchers facing the Blue Jays, Paul not giving up on Justin Verlander, and Erik Johnson as a cheap pick.
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Of all the predictions, Goldilocks would pick these. Not too bold. Not too safe. Just right.
Why predictions? I’m a little prediction crazy. Plus, you’re not making trades at this point in most leagues, the RotoGraphs team is doing a great job of providing options to grab for a boost in the final weeks, and there will be plenty of time to analyze players for 2016 in the offseason. Here are 13 assorted thoughts and musings on the remaining 13 percent or so of the 2015 season.
Agenda
Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.
Previous Reviews:
Baltimore Orioles
Atlanta Braves
The Graduate: Blake Swihart, C: A swath of injuries to the big league club’s catching depth led to the earlier-than-expected arrival of Swihart in The Show. He looked overwhelmed in the early going but, after missing some time due to injury, the young catcher found his footing and showed why scouts were so high on him. He’s been a stabilizing force behind the plate as he’s become more confident and improved his game calling. He’s also been much better at the plate with improved patience and more contact. The next thing the switch-hitting catcher needs to do is to get stronger from the right side of the plate. Look for Swihart, 23, to be behind the dish for Boston for years to come.