Taylor Jungmann was the 12th overall pick of the 2011 draft out of the University of Texas. I had pretty high expectations for him, but that’s heavily influenced by my watching him dominate at UT (1.85 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 356 Ks in 356 IP) with a few sprinkles of favorable bias* due to my being an alum, too.

*said bias wore off as he started his pro career and I tabbed him as a fifth-starter in this year’s SP guide “barring significant advancement of either the slider or changeup”. 

Pinning relatively high hopes on the 12th overall pick isn’t that crazy, but being drafted there was actually seen as something of a fall as Kiley McDaniel noted in his prospect write-up this year:

He slipped that far despite a 6’6/220 frame, track record and mid-rotation stuff because scouts were scared off by his short, abrupt, awkward arm action, which the Brewers corrected after signing him.

The minor league numbers were unimpressive as were the reports tied to them. McDaniel mentioned how his velocity dipped after the “corrected” arm action as he lingered in the high-80s/low-90s back in 2012, but a few more tweaks had him at 90-93 last year. Jungmann has been a great example of why minor league numbers aren’t always useful as a scouting tool, especially if it’s your only one. And let’s be honest, for a large majority of you, it was your only avenue outside of reading reports like McDaniel’s from March.

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Episode 85 – It’s Something To Consider

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson discuss a weird schedule with plenty of day games, Hank Conger’s remarkable achievements against righties, Billy Burns having already touched his ceiling, believing in Jimmy Rollins, Joe Ross’ success and potential, Jason Hammel slowing down, and Kyle Gibson improving.

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Agenda

1. Adonis Platoon Guy
2. Daily DFS – Ross, Gibson, Hammel
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Norris, Iglesias, Werth, Gose
5. Factor Grid

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It’s rankings update time! But sadly, this will be the last one of the season. In the past updates, I have listed a bunch of guys on the DL at the end. This time around, they have been completely omitted unless they are expected to return in the coming week.

My usual caveat on how I rank pitchers follows:

It’s essential to remember that ERA is not a skill. It’s just a result. So I don’t really care what a pitcher’s ERA is at the moment. What I’m really interested in is their peripherals and any changes in pitch mix and/or velocity. And even if their peripherals have changed, you then have to ask yourself if it’s sustainable. Again, more likely is that what we initially forecasted is what is going to be posted the rest of the way, though obviously this is not always the case.

As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

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Yesterday the new United States soccer crest leaked online. Given that the current crest has been in service since I was six years old, it was time for an update. Both the USMNT and USWNT are expected to wear the new design beginning next year.

On today’s agenda:
1. Paul Goldschmidt sets a personal best
2. Michael Cuddyer could be activated tomorrow
3. The pending return of Jered Weaver
4. Streaming Pitching Options
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Kevin Cash went with arguably his best reliever in the eighth inning of a tie game in Chicago, with the heart of the White Sox order coming up. He set them down and with the game still tied, he went with Brandon Gomes to face the bottom of the order, saving Brad Boxberger for the tenth inning to try to keep the Rays alive. After Adam Eaton singled to lead off the inning, he ended up at third after a fielding error on his steal attempt of second. After retiring one, Boxberger was ordered to load the bases by intentionally walking both Jose Abreu and Melky Cabrera. He then walked in the winning run. He’s still in the closer seat for now and his line isn’t as bad as it looked as two IBBs and an error played a huge part. For the White Sox, David Robertson was dominant, striking out four in his extended two-inning outing.

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Your favorite AL specific outfield rankings here at FanGraphs is back! As usual, rather than boring Tier One or Tier Two, etc., today I’ll be presenting my favorite Kanye West albums. To be clear, I don’t actively dislike anything he’s recorded, but I certainly have my favorites. As a bonus, I’ll be adding my three favorite tracks from each album. I can’t defend what Kanye has said and done outside of the recording booth, but I’ll be damned if he can’t create magic with music and lyrics (warning, language, etc. on these videos).

As always, apologies if I accidentally missed a player.

The College Dropout — All Falls Down (runner up: Never Let Me Down, third place: Jesus Walks)

Mike Trout Read the rest of this entry »

Preston Tucker was a 7^th round pick for the Astro’s in 2012 out of fabled Plant High School in Tampa Florida which produced a number of Major Leaguers including Hall of Famer Wade Boggs. Normally a High School prospect with plus power from the left side, a reportedly high Baseball IQ,  and good plate discipline would be drafted fairly high but not in this case.

It’s not that Tucker wasn’t noticed by scouts who liked his powerful yet unorthodox swing and developed arms, but what was mentioned more often than not was that he had a “bad body”—scout parlance that encompasses a number of physical shortcomings and in this case it was his lack of height at just under 6 feet tall. Considered the 14^th best prospect in the talent rich Houston Farm system in 2014, Tucker isn’t even considered the best prospect in his family, as his brother Kyle Tucker who is 6’-4” was recently drafted by the Astro’s as their # 2 pick.

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Maybe it’s just me, but it seems Michael Wacha’s solid season has largely gone unnoticed among a sea of excellent pitching performances this year. His value is largely buoyed by the win column (12) because of a relatively modest 7.61 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), but his 3.09 ERA and 1.09 WHIP are nothing to sneeze at — they rank 21st and 18th, respectively, among all qualified starters.

Wacha has largely taken teammate Adam Wainwright’s path to success this year: walk very few batters, induce a lot of ground balls and limit hard contact. Wainright has historically been more effective in limiting baserunners — only recently did his strikeout rate fall below 8.0 K/9 — but Waino has also been around a while. He really didn’t hit his stride until his age-27 season.

Technicalities aside, Wacha and Wainwright don’t have a lot in common. Waino throws sinkers, cutters and curves; Wacha lives primarily off a four-seamer while peppering in the occasional cutter, curve and change-up. However, Wacha improved one of his secondary pitches this year, and it helped him join an elite, albeit somewhat contrived, group of pitchers.

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I have a friend who is quite successful at fantasy baseball despite not really being much of a baseball fan. He know the stars, loved Griffey Jr. as a kid, and will watch a playoff game here and there, but he doesn’t know the next-in-line closer or on-the-cusp prospects for every team. He doesn’t have associations with every player’s name and utilizes the numbers for his success. He posed an interesting question to me the other day: “have you ever thought of trying to draft your fantasy baseball team name-blind?”

I haven’t thought about it and I’m not sure I could pull it off even if I were interested, but it got me thinking about one of my favorite exercises to do with baseball: the blind resume. Presenting the numbers without the names can alter your perspective of a player oonce you learn the name. It’s not that names aren’t important, though. Knowing a player can offer context for the numbers and help improve your judgments of those numbers. But they can also muddy the water substantially.

Today, we are going to look at several pairs of players without the names associated. The point isn’t that one player is definitely better than the other, but rather that removing the names might actually improve your perception of the players in question. Sometimes the names make us lazy. A star-level player who isn’t quite performing up to his normal level will be given a longer leash while an unproven newcomer often needs to prove himself more to get credit for his performance.

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