Archive for February, 2015

Top 5 Prospects for 2015: Cleveland Indians

This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The bad news is that the Indians don’t have many intriguing prospect arms. The good news is that the organization boasts some solid offensive prospects and could receive respectable emergency coverage at any position on the field.

The Top 5 Freshman for 2015

1. Francisco Lindor, SS: Jose Ramirez, now a sophomore, laid claim to the shortstop gig in 2014 and enters the year as the favorite to play every day at the position in ’15. However, he has yet to prove himself at the big league level at the plate and in the field so Lindor, the organization’s top prospect, could easily slide into the gig with a strong start to the year. The 21-year-old Puerto Rican infielder split the 2014 season between Double-A and Triple-A and should develop into a plus defender in the Majors. He doesn’t have much power but he hits for a decent average, occasionally hits the ball out of the park and can steal 20+ bases.

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Carlos Gonzalez and Risk in the Outfield

Hello readers! This is my first post on RotoGraphs. I’ll be writing a weekly column here focusing on hitters and chipping in wherever else I’m needed. I’m thankful for the opportunity from Eno and the gang, and excited to get cracking.

Everyone forgot about Carlos Gonzalez. Maybe that’s not right. How’s this: We got tired of dealing with Carlos Gonzalez. Looking at his rankings this year, that must be what happened.

It’s somewhat understandable. Gonzalez is seemingly always hurt. Things were especially bad last season with terrible production in only 70 games. His Contact% and SwStr% have both been in steady decline since his massive 2010. And he’s already 29, making a season of good health seem less and less likely each passing year. I can definitely understand the Gonzalez fatigue. But when does his risk become worth taking?

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 2/19/2015

Episode 196

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss Jurickson Profar, Kenley Jansen, Chris Owings, and Everth Cabrera and then dive into the NL West team previews with ARI and COL.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think!

Thanks to Ian Miller, aka Teen Archer, for the intro music. Approximately 78 minutes of joyous analysis.


Taking Hitter Analysis to Another Level

Truthfully, I have had it. Here at RotoGraphs we are almost too good at identifying emerging pitchers. We can decently find up-and-coming pitchers with Arsenal Score being the last great accomplishment. Additionally, I am also to blame by looking at how pitchers change and determining if they may be injury prone (example with Scott Kazmir). Most of the advancements in examining pitchers is because of the addition of Pitchf/x data. We know immediately if a pitcher is throwing slower or if he has a new pitch. I feel hitters have taken a back seat for a few years and I would like to try to increase our knowledge of them. I plan on expanding into new areas for batters. Also, I am completely open to new ideas from our readers.

One of the biggest issues with hitters is it tough to know if/when they have changed. The difference may involve power, foot speed, swing adjustments or how pitchers are adjusting to the hitter. I want to take hitter analysis to the next level. I will attempt to live on the “tip of the spear”. The problem with living on the tip is I will probably get cut a few times. I am going to look at some never published data and see if it is useful/predictive. I could see several of my ideas not working out.

Finally before I get into some of my ideas, I will gladly welcome any of your ideas. It can be tweak to something I bring up or a completely new idea. I am ready to give hitters their fair shake.

Idea 1 – Use Pitchf/x Data To See How Pitchers Are Attacking Hitters Read the rest of this entry »


The Rockies’ Bullpen: Decent Options for Holds Leaguers

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The Colorado Rockies’ bullpen is coming off a 2014 season in which they finished last in the league in saves (24), fielding independent pitching (4.24) and surrendered the most home runs (62), but somehow managed to scrape together 1.5 WAR. To be fair though, the Rockies also finished with the fewest blown saves in baseball (26), so finishing last in the league in save totals isn’t entirely due to their inability to convert, it probably has more to do with the lack of opportunities. For those fake baseballers in holds or solds (holds + saves) leagues, you may want to put the two setup men listed below on your short list of relievers to target.

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Texas Two-Step: Rangers OF Led by Choo & Martin

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

Injuries ravaged the 2014 Rangers top to bottom. They had to use 27 different hitters throughout the season, nine of which played in the outfield at some point. Coming into the season, they were slated to have one of the most fruitful fantasy outfields in the league, but it failed in spectacular fashion. Two of their mainstays remain while Alex Rios has moved on to Kansas City. Let’s take a look at the group that will try and improve upon the horrid 2014 output:

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Yasmany Tomas’ Plate Discipline Makes Me Nervous

The baseball community — owners, scouts, fantasy analysts et al. — is slowly learning how Cuban hitters plucked from the Cuban National Series (CNS) perform in Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, the sample size is not increasing very quickly. The common fantasy owner is helplessly resigned to rely on a) scouting reports, and/or b) his or her own eyes, probably via a batting practice video uploaded online. Ideally, a Cuban hitter’s salary would serve as a proxy for what one could expect offensively and defensively from his imported bat and glove, but the market, and the information that defines it, is far from perfect.

The market for Cuban hitters is a pendulum, but rather than coming to rest, it is in full swing: hitters such as Yoenis Cespedes, Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu, who are all but locks to fulfill the value of their modest contracts and then some, have plumped up the market for international signees. The Diamondbacks’ Yasmany Tomas, therefore, should not be compared to Abreu simply because the average annual values (AAV) of their contracts are almost identical. The dynamics of this particular market are nebulous, changing with every transaction.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t compare Tomas and Abreu statistically. Comparing the CNS and MLB performances of hitters more recently signed out of Cuba can still give us at least a faint idea of how we can expect Tomas to perform. This is my hope, at least. I’ll be the first to admit the analysis that follows is not as rigorous as I wish it could be, as the sample of contemporary, fantasy-relevant Cuban hitters who recently played in the CNS simply lacks breadth.

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Top 5 Prospects for 2015: Chicago White Sox

This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshmen contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The White Sox loaded up on talent from the 2014-15 free agent market and will field a veteran-heavy club in 2015. However, the organization also boasts some intriguing upper-level prospect talent that could help bolster the 25-man roster in the coming year.

The Top 5 Freshman for 2015

1. Carlos Sanchez, 2B: This freshman second baseman has a chance to enter 2015 as the only rookie on a club looking to make it deep into the playoffs after investing heavily on the free agent market. He’ll have to contend with a couple of off-season signings in Emilio Bonifacio and (retread) Gord Beckham but neither of the veteran players is overly well suited to regular action. Sanchez, 22, doesn’t have loud tools but he’s a smart player and he drove the ball better in 2014 at the Triple-A level. He’s historically shown an ability to hit for average and could steal 15-20 bags in a full season.

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Red Bullpen: The Best And The Rest

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

As Aroldis Chapman inches closer to free agency, decision makers in Cincinnati must be getting uncomfortable. Chapman is signed through 2016. Should he remain healthy over the next two seasons, he will sign a record breaking contract for a reliever. Since they’re unlikely to re-sign him, there will be increasing pressure to trade him while his value is highest.

The scariest part is the state of the Reds bullpen – they have no obvious alternative to Chapman. Cincinnati is lucky. We live in an era where at least 75 pitchers meet the basic requirements of a closer (and that excludes non-major league talent). Replacing Chapman is next to impossible, but finding a viable closer is easy.

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The Pirates Rotation – Absent Russell Martin

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

The biggest change for the Pirates rotation in 2015 is not a pitcher but the loss of catcher Russell Martin. Even Martin’s sterling reputation might undersell his importance to a staff. In particular, he is an exceptional pitch framer. By Baseball Info Solutions’ Strike Zone Runs Saved metric, Martin has saved his pitchers 48 runs with his framing since 2010, which is the second highest total in baseball over the period, trailing only Jonathan Lucroy (85).
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