2015 Pod’s Picks: Starting Pitcher

Opening day is finally upon us! I conclude this year’s (condensed) Pod’s Picks series with starting pitchers. If you missed them, here are the infielders and outfielders. The bullish group will only include those I ranked within my top 75 and the bearish only players the consensus ranked within their top 75.

Bullish

R.A. Dickey

Consensus Rank: 65 | My Rank: 20

It’s an innings thing, as mentioned in my March tiers. It’s simply the extra value 200+ innings brings, due to additional opportunities to win games and more strikeouts. I project him for near identical performance to last season, which is more optimistic than the three projections on his player page.

Justin Verlander

Consensus Rank: 72 | My Rank: 36

My ranking did reflect that he’s expected to miss one start, and just that one. Assuming the triceps issue doesn’t affect his performance and fastball velocity, I’m optimistic about a big rebound. His velocity was up in the last start he had made before leaving with that arm issue and he should have an improved defense behind him.

Matt Cain

Consensus Rank: 60 | My Rank: 25

Coming off two straight seasons (one abbreviated due to injury) in which he posted a 4.00+ ERA and enduring a pair of offseason surgeries, it’s no surprise that most fantasy owners are skeptical of drafting Cain. But his 2013 and 2014 seasons were marred by inflated HR/FB rates, even though he was able to maintain his signature low BABIP marks. You also have to assume his elbow injury hurt his strikeout and walk rates last year, so now healthy, why wouldn’t we expect him to bounce back?

Wade Miley

Consensus Rank: 83 | My Rank: 53

Did you realize that Miley’s SIERA was significantly below his ERA last year? He bumped his strikeout rate up to above average territory, thanks to increased usage of his quality slider, and maintained his strong ground ball rate. The move to the American League hurts, but he’ll be supported by an excellent defense and should receive fantastic run support.

Ian Kennedy

Consensus Rank: 57 | My Rank: 32

I’m not sure what the disconnect is here as I’m projecting a fairly identical performance this year compared to last, which is right in line with all the projections. His outfield defense is going to be poor, but he posted a .315 BABIP last year to begin with, so it’s not going to get any worse. I guess this ranking also involves your feelings on his strikeout rate jump. Since it was backed by a career high in fastball velocity, I’m projecting him to hold onto most of his gains.

Brandon McCarthy

Consensus Rank: 54 | My Rank: 30

Like Kennedy, McCarthy was also the beneficiary of increased fastball velocity, which did wonders for his skill set. Now in an excellent situation backed by a strong offense and defense and in the National League all season, it simply comes down to remaining healthy.

Scott Kazmir

Consensus Rank: 53 | My Rank: 31

I have to imagine that his poor second half has played a large role in his perceived value. But if we focus on his full-season stats, he has put together two strong performances since making the mother of all comebacks. It’s hard to believe that he’s still just 31!

Bearish

Masahiro Tanaka

Consensus Rank: 24 | My Rank: 58

To be fair to the other rankings, their ranking was before this came out:

Masahiro Tanaka just said we should not expect much in the way of velocity this year. Said he is changing his style. Hmmm.

— David Waldstein (@DavidWaldstein) April 4, 2015

After reading the news, I didn’t adjust my projection at all as I was already quite pessmistic and forecasting just 140 innings. The tweet essentially just validated my thoughts and confirmed that I want no shares of his this season.

Doug Fister

Consensus Rank: 38 | My Rank: 62

I’m assuming his super fortunate 2.41 ERA last year has a lot to do with his bullish consensus ranking. He was one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball though according to SIERA, which was about a run and a half higher. His projections are all over the place, while mine is closest to Steamer, the most pessimistic of all. With a weak strikeout rate, he relies on his defense to keep his ratios down and that’s just not worth a whole lot in fantasy without lots of batted ball luck that can’t be counted on again.

Jacob deGrom

Consensus Rank: 20 | My Rank: 44

Strictly innings based. What I’ve come to realize is that the majority of fantasy owners are ranking pitchers based solely on ERA/WHIP/strikeout rate potential, but mostly don’t factor in the value additional innings will provide. I’m projecting just 175 innings, which is higher than Steamer and right in line with ZiPS, but below the Fans. Our rankings would be much closer if I had projected the 193 the latter is forecasting. I detailed my full projection a month ago.

Henderson Alvarez

Consensus Rank: 62 | My Rank: 85

Another beneficiary of great fortune, Alvarez posted very similar skills to Fister last year. Unless you think he’s going to strand 79% of runners again, it’s hard to believe he’s going to earn any mixed league value this year. His SIERA was a full run higher than his ERA and you have to assume his walk rate is going to jump back up.

Garrett Richards

Consensus Rank: 30 | My Rank: 51

Innings pitched again! Richards gets docked due to his late start as he continues his recovery from knee surgery. Not only are we unsure how repeatable last year’s breakout is, but now we have to wonder if his performance will be affected as he returns from that serious injury.

Mat Latos

Consensus Rank: 39 | My Rank: 59

A .269 BABIP and 7.3% HR/FB rate hid a precipitous decline in Latos’ skills last year. His strikeout rate tumbled and his fastball velocity fell by two miles per hour. The park switch should help, but unless his velocity returns, he seems like an easy bet to post a new career high in ERA. Steamer thinks he might even approach 4.00. I’m not quite as pessimistic and yet still have him ranked 20 spots worse than the consensus.

Andrew Cashner

Consensus Rank: 36 | My Rank: 56

It amazes me that I was the biggest Cashner supporter heading into 2013, he actually does break out, and ever since, I’ve been arguing that he’s been way overvalued. Without a strong strikeout rate, Cashner has gotten by thanks to a low BABIP and suppressed HR/FB rate. As a ground ball pitcher who induces a low rate of pop-ups, I have no idea how he has kept that BABIP so low. But with the new look Padres defense that is sure to be awful, I can’t imagine he’ll keep preventing hits on balls in play at such a pace any longer. With SIERA marks around 3.70 for two straight years, something has gotta give, as it’s rare for a pitcher to outperform his peripherals to that startling a degree for that long.