The Daily Grind: Welcome, Betts, Hahn, Pagan

Agenda

1. What Is This?
2. Daily DFS – Bargain Betts?
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hahn, Peavy, Davis, Pagan
4. Some Notable Pitchers on the Wire
5. The Factor Grid

1. What Is This?

Many of you are probably familiar with The Daily Grind. It has appeared on FanGraphs and The Hardball Times for the last three seasons. Some might (correctly) state that this is the fourth season of the Grind.

Two weeks ago, I announced some goals for TDG. This column is meant to be a home and a community of baseball fans. A blog within a blog. On the surface, it’s a transactional column about daily fantasy bargains and traditional fantasy waiver wire pickups. Underneath the facade is a home for the whimsy of NotGraphs misfits. It’s a sounding board for strategy and tactics. Finally, it’s a place to celebrate the great sport of fantasy baseball.

Usually, I’ll use bullet number one to discuss an introductory topic. That could include interesting research, guest analysis, DFS strategy, traditional fantasy tactics, or something that’s just plain silly. For example, tomorrow will include some swing analysis of Mike Zunino by Dan Farnsworth.

2. Daily DFS – Bargain Betts?

Mookie Betts. He’s available as an inexpensive outfielder on FanDuel ($3,300) and DraftKings ($4,000). He’s matched up against Cole Hamels today, which usually isn’t a game to target. However, since everybody is throwing their “ace” and the Red Sox have such a dynamic lineup, it’s not a bad idea to target their leadoff hitter. Get used to using Betts, he’ll be a slightly more valuable version of Anthony Rendon at a lesser position.

And now, the case against using Betts. After a high profile spring, everybody is looking at him. A pick of Betts will be matched by a huge quantity of owners. If you happen to be playing a large Opening Day GPP (the $2 Squeeze on FanDuel will include over 100,000 contestants), then it might be wise to zig with another pick. So for GPPs, either stack Red Sox or don’t use Betts. Small contest owners can still use Betts without reservation.

Stack Targets: Want to stack? I recommend Kyle Kendrick and Kyle Lohse in Milwaukee, Hamels in Philadelphia, Bartolo Colon in Washington, and Josh Collmenter in Phoenix.

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hahn, Peavy, Davis, Pagan 

There are only eight games tomorrow, so it’s a perfect time to start streaming. Recall, this section is all about guys you can find on the waiver wire. Yes, I love Carlos Carrasco’s matchup (on Wednesday) against the strikeout happy Astros. No, you cannot find him on waivers.

Pitchers to Start: Somebody you can find is Jesse Hahn. He’ll face a Rangers offense that grows increasingly pathetic after the heart of the lineup. Hahn has a solid four pitch repertoire and has looked sharp all spring. He’s capable of decent production across the three rate stats (K/9, ERA, WHIP), and he should have a good shot at a win. He’s a rare starter whose sinker was more effective than his four seamer (by PITCHf/x peripherals).

Also consider: Wei-Yin Chen, Rubby de la Rosa (be careful with these)

Pitchers to Exploit: Spring stats technically don’t matter, but they can inform us about a player’s readiness. Peavy was awful this spring, with a 9.64 ERA and 31 hits allowed in 18.2 innings. The Giants have considered moving Ryan Vogelsong up to tomorrow, which tells us the club is concerned too. While the Diamondbacks offense is not a powerhouse, they do have certain Goldschmidts and Trumbos.

Also consider: Colby Lewis

Hitters (power): We Like Ike is a popular thing to say whilst recommending Ike Davis. We should especially like Ike against Lewis. The platoon-prone northpaw has a allowed a career .283/.357/.472 line to opposite-handed opponents. Sir Davis is a .254/.357/.456 hitter against all righties.

Also consider: Adam Lind, C.J. Cron

Hitters (speed): Sometimes it pays to roster a good situation. Such is the case with Angel Pagan. At least until Hunter Pence returns, Pagan will bat third in the Giants lineup. He’s a soft power threat, although he can provide some pop. However, a chance to drive in runs and swipe bases ahead of Buster Posey makes Pagan ownable in just about any format. He’s only on 12 percent of Yahoo rosters.

Oh right, he’ll face de la Rosa. The matchup is merely decent after de la Rosa showed signs of improvement this spring.

Also consider: Nori Aoki, David Peralta

4. Some Possibly Notable Pitchers on the Wire

The following pitchers are of moderate interest and can be found on the waiver wire of my home league: Trevor Bauer, Dan Haren, Aaron Sanchez, Jonathon Niese, and Dillon Gee.

Thus concludes today’s walkthrough of some possibly notable pitchers on the wire. Had this been an analysis of notable pitchers on The Wire, it would have been very different.

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

You may be familiar with DFS cheat sheets. The Factor Grid is a simplified version. It contains actionable information that requires little effort to interpret. Whereas a traditional cheat sheet is heavily laden with data, the Factor Grid provides most of what you need to know in a 30 second snapshot.

The weather gods are smiling today. There are no games with over a 25 percent chance for rain. Aside from Oakland, the chilliest locations have retractable roofs.

The Link. This looks like a standard, run of the mill table to me. Remember, green is good for hitters, red is good for pitchers, and yellow is something in between.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.