2015 Pod Projections: Jacob deGrom

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Interestingly, I have seen many commenters ask for advice when choosing between this Monday’s Pod Projectionee, Carlos Carrasco, and today’s choice, Jacob deGrom. You’ll see when I unveil my full deGrom projection below, but it’s a rather close call, as they have very similar forecasts.

With that said, deGrom essentially came out of nowhere last year to post a sub-3.00 ERA in 22 starts and earn NL Rookie of the Year honors. He generally posted ho-hum minor league peripherals, but perhaps fueled by a faster slider, his coming out party occurred in the Majors. Before beginning my projection, I shared four reasons why deGrom was for real. Since I gave it away above by comparing the projection to Carrasco’s, I’ll tell you that I still feel the same way.

Pod Projections Index:
Carlos Carrasco
George Springer
Yasmany Tomas
Anthony Rendon

IP: 175

He pitched nearly 180 combined innings last season, so there’s no concern about any sort of innings cap. But he’s technically slated to be the team’s fifth starter, so I am projecting 29 starts, averaging six innings per. As I type this, I feel like that could prove a tad conservative, but I tend to err on the side of caution with starting pitchers, especially those who have yet to even reach the innings total I am projecting at the Major League level.

K%: 22.7%

deGrom’s strikeout rate typically ranged in the high teen to low 20% mark in the minors, but with the Mets, his marked surged to 25.5%. It’s not common for a rookie pitcher to post a higher strikeout rate in the Majors than minors, so it’s normal to be skeptical. But both his curve and changeup generated swinging strikes at rates well above the league average, while his slider was decent enough and his fastball fantastic. Basically, he flashed a vast repertoire and each pitch was either solid or excellent. It gives him some margin for error as if one pitch proves less effective, he could choose to throw it less and simply switch to another pitch that has been pretty good.

Of course, you have to figure some regression is in order. He finished third in Whiff/Swing with his four-seamer among all starters who threw the pitch at least 200 times, so that’s going to be difficult to repeat. But even with some regression baked in, it’s hard to imagine his strikeout rate falling so drastically. I think we can ignore those minor league rates and treat him as a new pitcher.

BB%: 7.4%

deGrom has displayed pretty good control and threw an above average rate of strikes last year. He finished last season with a 7.6% walk rate, but walk rate does improve with age, so a marginal decline is a reasonable expectation.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 47% / 21% / 32%

deGrom posted an inflated 23.2% line drive rate during his rookie campaign, but I figure that drops toward the league average to 21%. I’m projecting that most of those liners become ground balls, as his ground ball rate shot up to 55% during his time at Triple-A in 2014. If he’s more that version than the pre-2014 version of himself, than we could expect more ground balls.

HR/FB%: 10.0%

I will rarely project a starting pitcher with limited Major League experience to post anything but a 10% mark, which is around league average for starters over the last couple of years. deGrom greatly benefited from a minuscule 6.1% mark last year, but that’s going to be near impossible to repeat. Citi Field sported a home run park factor of 102 last year, and now the fences are moving in. That’s going to make it even more favorable for home runs, which makes it all the more likely that deGrom’s home run rate jumps, perhaps significantly.

BABIP: .300

With a slight ground ball tilt, a lower than average IFFB% last year and a relatively weak defensive unit behind him, deGrom gets saddled with a .300 BABIP, which is above the league average of around .295. I rarely put stock into minor league BABIPs for pitchers, but it’s worth noting that he nearly always posted inflated marks during his time down on the farm.

Below is my final projected pitching line, along with the other systems for comparison:

System	IP	W	ERA	WHIP	K	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	BABIP	LOB%
Pod	175	11	3.45	1.24	165	8.5	2.8	0.83	22.7%	7.4%	0.300	73.9%
Steamer	163	9	3.83	1.24	147	8.1	2.7	0.91	21.4%	7.1%	0.292	70.8%
ZiPS	174.1	10	3.30	1.22	159	8.2	2.7	0.61			0.307	73.8%
Fans (27)	191	13	3.27	1.16	184	8.7	2.6	0.62			0.300	73.3%

Surprise, surprise, the Fans are the most optimistic! They project the most innings, wins and strikeouts and the lowest ERA and WHIP. I’m actually quite surprised by ZiPS’ bullishness, but it’s largely driven by its HR/9 projection. Seems like it’s treating deGrom as having a real HR/FB rate suppression skill which seems pretty ridiculous to me based on just 140.1 Major League innings. Their (and the Fans as well) HR/9 projection infers about an 8.3% HR/FB rate mark, which is just too low for someone with no proven track record of such ability.

On the other hand, Steamer’s ERA projection looks out of place, and it’s driven by a HR/9 mark on the opposite extreme and the lowest LOB% forecast of the bunch. What’s the deal with that?! That HR/9 projection is double his mark last year, so assuming the same batted ball distribution, that’s a forecast of about a 12% HR/FB rate! Huh?

This is precisely why I project players on my own, as I have control over every single component, and don’t need to mentally adjust a projection if I agree with one metric in a forecast, but not another.

Anyhow, as much as the majority of these projections, including mine, suggest that deGrom is basically for real, remember the risk is elevated here given than he has never shown this level of performance in the minors. With such a limited track record of this kind of success, it’s not a forecast that engenders a high degree of confidence.