We have almost reached the finish line of our position by position player recaps! Today we move on to the outfield, which means it’s time to check in on how I did with my preseason Pod’s Picks. Because there are so many of them, the list was a much better representation of the players I was particularly bullish and bearish on based on my projections.
The 2014 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. Since it’s such a large class, we’ll be focusing on outfielders for a fortnight.
The players were ranked based on their 2014 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and standard 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started. Players are listed only at their primary positions from 2014.
One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth. These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. A player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.
This year, I’ve added in RotoGraphs’ preseason consensus rankings so you can see what we thought of each player coming into the year. This ranking can be found in the “Pre” column. “EOS” of course stands for End Of Season, and the rest should be self explanatory.
With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »
Why I watched: Rookie in Colorado
Game(s) Watched: 9/10/14 vs Mets
Game Thoughts
• The left-hander’s straight fastball was between 88 and 94 mph. It gets an outstanding 50% GB%, but doesn’t have a ton of noticeable downward break.
• He also threw an 83 mph slider which broke in the 10-4 direction. It was a plus pitch when he commanded it. A few times it barely broke, if at all. Hanging breaking balls usually go for home runs. The pitch is a killer on lefties. Overall, he is posted a 2.22 FIP against lefties and 4.35 against righties.
I’ve written briefly about Jordy Mercer twice before; once a couple months ago, and once in June 2013. I first saw Mercer play back in 2006, when he arrived at Oklahoma State, and I’ve followed his career closely over the eight-plus years since. That piece from last June pretty well encapsulated my feelings about Mercer’s pre-MLB career:
I always wondered whether his hit tool would play at the higher levels.
In college, Mercer was right around a .300 hitter with 25 homers in three seasons. Keep in mind that this was before the NCAA switched to the offense-suppressing new bats; a .300 collegiate hitter wasn’t exactly impressive in that offensive environment. As he climbed through the minors, my concerns seemed valid, as he posted a batting average around .260 at most of his minor-league stops.
Then, last year, something seemed to change. Mercer developed an ability to get on base that he hadn’t shown before. He posted a much-improved .287/.357/.421 slash line in Triple-A, good enough to get him a call to the majors.
In yesterday’s comments about Wilmer Flores, a reader referenced K/HR leagues. I must admit, I have never heard of K/HR as a fantasy stat. I don’t feel bad, a couple pointed google searches turned up precisely nothing on the topic. With K/HR in mind, let’s turn our attention to some quirky leagues. As always, we have the comments for further discussion.
Read the rest of this entry »
Episode 177
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss end-of-season shortstop rankings, which went up this past Monday, as well as the 2015 outlooks for many of them, including: Starlin Castro, Xander Bogaerts, Jean Segura, Andrelton Simmons, Wilmer Flores, and Brad Miller, with plenty of comments about the bigger names thrown in there.
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.
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I made a decision while trying to win a championship last season which I didn’t regret at the time, but now must deal with. I traded for Brad Miller. I didn’t want him. He was a throw in for a trade with bigger pieces, but he has a long guaranteed contract the other owner gave him. Coming into 2014, he looked to be a good middle infield option with both second base and shortstop eligibility. Now, he just gives his 2014 owners nightmarish flashbacks. It is not even clear if he will play much in 2015. I am going to see if there is any possible chance for non-dead cat bounce or if he belongs on the floor.
Generally, he was the same player in several categories:
Stat: 2013, 2014
ISO: .154, .144
HR/FB: 10%, 10%
BB%: 7%, 8%
SB: 5, 4
Power, speed and walks seemed fine.
This probably wasn’t the type of year most fantasy baseball players who drafted or bought Andrelton Simmons expected from him. The Atlanta Braves’ shortstop finished with a .244 average, a mere seven home runs, and a measly four stolen bases. Even in a year of depressed offense and especially at a position starving for some of it, the third-year player failed to be replacement-level in the average mixed league, according to Sr. Zach Sanders’ shortstop standings.
Simmons seemed to have the makings of an underrated fantasy asset coming into this year. He hit .248 in the previous season yet struck out in only 8.4% of his plate appearances and hit .247 on balls in play, so he appeared to be destined to be a plus – or at least not a minus – in batting average. He swatted 17 long balls, demonstrating that he could be a power player. And he’d stolen as many as 26 bases in a season on the farm, so the possibility of more speed tantalized. None of those things materialized, unfortunately.
Depending on your perspective, a feature/bug of Zach Sander’s valuation system is how it weights playing time. If you put Wilmer Flores into your shortstop position on April first and never moved him, he would have been worth -$7. On a rate basis, he’s comparable to Xander Bogaerts, Jordy Mercer, and Brandon Crawford, all of whom ranged from $2 to $5 of value. In other words, it was a solid fantasy debut for Flores.
Jean Segura caused many a fantasy owner to shed a tear or two or three this season. One of those many owners was me. After a breakout (at least in a fantasy sense) 2013 season, Segura shot up the preseason rankings, actually moving up to third by our crew. Instead, he finished just 16th in value, barely playable as a middle infielder in 12-team mixed leagues.