Agenda

1. DFS Bullpens
2. Daily DFS
3. Friday Picks
4. Table

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Sunday in this space, we outlined some of the hitters who gain the most and the least in the switch from DraftStreet scoring to DraftKings scoring, where strikeouts no longer hurt a hitter. On Monday, we did the same for pitchers.

If you haven’t yet, by the way, you can transfer your account here.

Today, as a final wrap on the “transition” period, we’re going to look at how scarce total points are in each format, so you can begin to re-calibrate your “dollar per point” perception (though we don’t have comparative data on the relative payout differences between the two). There’s not really a “clean” way to do this, so I’ll all do is compare the total budget and the points earned by hitter/pitcher (I excluded relievers because, while it may be instructive in some ways, they are entirely out of the decision set now).
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In a move that we’ve been waiting on for quite a while, the Padres finally traded away their starting third baseman since 2009. Chase Headley now finds himself in New York, calling Yankee Stadium home. That alone should be cause for celebration, as his home park hasn’t been too kind to him over his career. But Headley has been a disappointment once again this year and has been bothered by a herniated disk in his back. Could this move be the jolt he needs to reward those fantasy owners who remained patient?

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Thursday’s Roto Riteup celebrates the little things in life, like peanuts, a good piece of buttered toast, and Jose Altuve’s pinky toe.

On today’s agenda:
1. Taijuan Walker looks better, sort of
2. Jeremy Hellickson returning Saturday
3. Brandon Belt’s concussion is serious
4. Fun with arbitrary endpoints
5. The Flippant Five

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• *Fangraphs “breaking news” chime* Reports are out that Rangers closer Joakim Soria has been traded to the Detroit Tigers for a package of prospects. Soria has posted fantastic numbers in 2014, thanks in large part to the return of his elite changeup. His 1.84 SIERA is 11th best among all qualified relievers, 7th among closers. While Joe Nathan has constantly been propped up by Brad Ausmus, the Detroit skipper is going to have an interesting decision on his hands. Nathan has the big contract and has not operated in a setup capacity recently. Soria’s contract is more reasonable and he has experience working out of the 7th and 8th innings. Nathan’s 3.40 SIERA isn’t great, but implies that he has been BABIPed (.333) and LOB%ed (64%) a bit more than you’d expect. But Soria is still the better pitcher. Who is the ninth inning guy? My gut tells me Nathan keeps the job for now, but his leash got dramatically shorter.

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It’s not my day to do the daily fantasy post, but I want to touch on a daily fantasy strategy thought today. It occurred to me that when looking at the best matchups for hitters each day I only look at the starting pitchers the hitters will be facing, but relievers have thrown just over a third of all innings pitched this year. The starters are obviously the more important factor, but it could be informative to know who the best and worst bullpens are. The quality of the bullpen will never be a determinative factor, but it can be a plus or minus just like weather or ballpark can be. Read the rest of this entry »

There have been some decent pickups at the middle-infield positions lately for those who play fantasy baseball games. This is nice. The latest recommendation of one of those types doesn’t figure to have much of a shelf life, so the depth of the rotisserie or head-to-head league should figure into a fantasy owner’s decision of whether and how to pursue him. The other rec may be nothing about which to be excited, any time soon, but somewhere, somehow, it probably plays.

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Over the past two seasons (2013 – 2014), only nineteen qualified starters have posted a FIP lower than Lance Lynn’s 3.29. He’s been better than Gio Gonzalez, Kris Medlen, Doug Fister, and Homer Bailey, using FIP. I feel like most, if not, all of those men were/are viewed as better fantasy options coming into 2014. Maybe they were; in Medlen’s case, we’ll never know. I definitely had all of them ranked in front of Lynn, and I’ve been proven wrong.

My main reason for dropping Lynn in my rankings was his struggles versus left handed batters. Those concerns haven’t been abated, although, he has been better versus lefties this year: .345 career wOBA allowed versus .326 wOBA this season. His lack of a change-up still hurts, but .19 points of wOBA is nothing to scoff at. Granted, his career number still holds more weight, considering the larger sample. Still, though, progress is progress; this is the second year in a row that number has dropped, after all (was .366 in 2012).

Lynn’s season has been odd in the sense that he’s striking out fewer batters, while walking more. Yet, thanks to little BABiP and HR/FB help – more sinkers help, I’m sure; as has the Cardinals defense – he’s finally beating his peripherals for once. This game’s weird.

Lynn draws the Rays today, who, despite their struggles, have been better than average versus right handed pitching. Read the rest of this entry »

Agenda

1. Some Trade Talk
2. Daily DFS
3. Thin Thursday
4. Table

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Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper is not a bust. But that’s not going to stop fantasy owners from complaining. The 21-year-old entered the season with giant expectations. Many fantasy owners spent high picks on Harper, hoping to get superstar numbers. Instead, they’ve received an injury-riddled, three home run campaign. Harper’s well aware of his issues at the plate this season. Early in the year, he made reference to not having his timing down. That same issue seemed to carry over immediately after Harper was activated from the disabled list. Things changed over the All-Star Break, though. Harper emerged after the break sporting a new stance, and while it’s only been a few games, a second-half surge seems possible.

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