The Daily Grind: 7-23-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Some Trade Talk
2. Daily DFS
3. Thin Thursday
4. Table

1. Some Trade Talk

Let’s talk about two trades – one real and one fantastical.

Chase Headley is yesterday’s most improved player. For the next two months, he’ll call one of the best hitter stadiums home. Of course, I predicted big things for Brian McCann and Kelly Johnson this season, and we all know how that’s turned out. I’m not necessarily bullish about Headley, especially because he’s been banged up the entire season. Conversely, Yangervis Solarte went from occasionally interesting to fuggedabout’im.

I also consummated a much delayed trade in my home league (a keeper league). For most of the season, I dominated first place, but in mid-June I was passed by two owners who subsequently sold keepers for studs to put me in the dust. My team is still in the thick of it so long as I whittle down my ERA and WHIP and gain ground in wins and strikeouts. To that end, I made the following trade (keeper prices in parenthesis).

I Trade
Joc Pederson ($2 if minor leagues, $7 if major leagues)
Sonny Gray ($15)
Yordano Ventura ($10)

I Get
Felix Hernandez ($36)
Cliff Lee ($36)
Jonathan Lucroy ($24)

The deal should help my rate stats and provide a slight upgrade over Dioner Navarro over the rest of the season. Navarro is still on my roster, so I might be able to make up some ground in catcher games played. None of the players I received are bonafide keepers, though I could see justifying the expenses for Lucroy and Hernandez. Meanwhile, the three players I sent away are decent but unspectacular keepers. I immediately replaced Pederson with Corey Seager, so I didn’t take much of a hit there.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Six games are early.

Right-hander Anthony Swarzak is probably the worst pitcher from the early crew, but he’s probably not the top target. Swarzak has worked unimpressively out of the pen all season, so he isn’t stretched out for a start. Even as a reliever, he didn’t strike out enough hitters to be a useful player.

Trevor Cahill is nipping at Swarzak’s heals for worst pitcher of the time slot. Cahill can strike out batters, he just walks way too many of them, and consistently allows about 12 percent of fly balls to leave the yard. That equates to roughly one out of every 16 balls in play. The strikeouts are new this season and likely a result of his time in the bullpen. Expect regression to steal some of those away.

Rapid Fire #1: Jorge de la Rosa is a better pitcher than these others, but he has to work at Coors Field against an effective Nationals unit. Taijuan Walker has talent, but his five walks against the White Sox highlight the downside to use him.

Late: And nine games are late.

If I were to run a major league team, I would be happy to have David Phelps hanging around the back end of my rotation. Unfortunately, Yankee Stadium is one of the worst locales for the righty. He barely doesn’t qualify as a fly ball pitcher, and he channels his inner Vance Worley to strike out more batters than his whiff rate would suggest is possible. The Rangers offense is timid, but not altogether tame.

Brad Peacock is most of a really good major league pitcher. The part that isn’t there is his command and control, which lets him walk between four and five batters per nine innings (career 4.32 BB/9). The Athletics have a patient lineup that can wait for mistake pitches.

Rapid Fire #2: Who knows what to expect out of Francisco Liriano. I sure don’t. Chris Tillman has gotten a lot worse this season, but he’s not bad enough to go stack the expensive Angels.

Why I didn’t list…Clay Buchholz: He has the ERA of an exploitable pitcher, but Buchholz has shown better stuff since returning from the disabled list. His last outing left something to be desired while the outing before that was fantastic. I wouldn’t go as far as to start him in Toronto.

3. Thin Thursday

With 11 games to be played, it’s not that thin.

Pitchers to Start: Rubby de la Rosa, aka the other de la Rosa, will face the Blue Jays tomorrow. It’s a difficult assignment, but he has the raw stuff to survive. Strong whiff and walk rates have been his friend through seven major league starts, although our projection systems think his walk rate will double.

I would use Marcus Stroman over de la Rosa. Stroman features a more consistent track record and better velocity. I’d also rather be pitching to the Red Sox than the (admittedly depleted) Blue Jays.

The same risks as last week still hold true for Brandon McCarthy. It’s scary to use a potentially homer prone pitcher at Yankee Stadium. The rest of his game is so good that it might be worth rolling the dice. It’s a shame he wasn’t acquired by a team like the Pirates.

The Padres lineup is so bad that I might consider a start for the consistently disappointing Edwin Jackson. I said “might.” His strikeout rate is nice, but he’s gotten into a home run habit in recent outings.

Wei-Yin Chen is opposed by a very left-handed Mariners unit. You’ll be betting on a zero or one run performance, since the rest of his numbers aren’t beneficial.

Pitchers to Exploit: Colby Lewis was grumpy about a Colby Rasmus bunt against the shift last time around. Other than his unwarranted griping, he had a nice bounce back outing from his previous disasterpiece. He’s one of those guys whose ERA is much worse than his peripherals. On another team, he wouldn’t have a chance to correct that, but who are the Rangers going to turn to?

Scott Feldman is the latest mid-tier pitcher asked to navigate the Athletics buzz saw lineup. He’s a balls in play type of pitcher, so it’s up to the gods.

What more is there to say about Hector Noesi. He’s appeared every five days. I think he has the talent to pitch in the majors, but his epiphany might have to come in the bullpen.

Hitters (power): Seth Smith has lost his “bash buddy.” Not that Headley did much bashing.

Corey Hart will have the platoon advantage against Chen.

John Jaso is best mentioned in song. ~John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt~

Kelly Johnson is a nice flexible option with Lewis on the bump. You could probably find Headley too.

Hitters (speed): Jed Lowrie is also available against Feldman.

Leonys Martin could wrap one around the foul pole against McCarthy.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

We have scattered storms in New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta. Take a closer look around game time.

The Link. A 10 rating at Coors is always a lovely thing to witness.

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