Archive for June, 2014

Fantasy Baseball Existentialism: Jon’s Addiction

Our own Dave Cameron wrote up the Jon Singleton signing and promotion on Monday. In the article, Cameron referenced Singleton’s battle with drug addiction. Singleton told The Associated Press (via ESPN.com) back in March, “At this point, it’s pretty evident to me that I’m a drug addict.”

So that’s pretty interesting, but plenty of people successfully combat addictions. The Astros aren’t necessarily wrong to give a long-term deal to an admitted drug addict, particularly when the deal has the potential to be extremely team-friendly if Singleton performs up to his reputation as a top prospect. You aren’t wrong for owning Singleton in fantasy or picking him up on the waiver wire now that he’s in the big leagues. If you are an Astros fan, you have reasons for optimism now with Singleton and George Springer joining Jose Altuve, Jason Castro, Dexter Fowler, and Matt Dominguez to form what is starting to look like a competent team after several long years in the abyss.

Where I became startled in reading about Singleton was when the ESPN.com article said:

He isn’t receiving treatment for his addiction, isn’t in a program and doesn’t have someone traveling with him to keep him on track.

Singleton is confident he can avoid further relapses by focusing on his opportunity, keeping better company and avoiding bad situations. He calls his life a work in progress and is focused on not being so hard on himself this season.

I don’t know what the statistics are on relapse avoidance for people in programs as opposed to out, but I can’t imagine the odds are in Singleton’s favor right now. I don’t know how many people reading this have addictions of their own or at least know someone who, like Singleton, is a self-admitted addict of some kind. I do know that human habits are extremely difficult to change, particularly a habit as serious as substance abuse.

I know this because last Sunday I thought to myself, “You know what? You’ve gotten pretty out of shape here. You should stop drinking once again and start exercising. Also, like Singleton, you shouldn’t be hard on yourself anymore!” Good thoughts, no? Then, on Tuesday night, one of my bosses offered to pick up our bar tab at a local watering hole and I thought to myself, “What kind of idiot turns down free drinks?” Sunday’s resolution to hope for change had failed miserably, as Tuesday night ended with a phone call to my attorney to get her to file a lawsuit against the fast food establishment which had me sick in my view of things.

Actually, since the readers here probably aren’t aspiring to be Gonzo journalists with a substance abuse solution to reality like the great Hunter “Pence” Thompson and this aspiring writer, let’s use a different example. Also on Sunday, I thought, “You should eat healthier, too.” And then Monday morning someone upset me at work and next think you know there’s a Chinese restaurant down the street and I’m there for some deep-fried sugary products of some kind that sure taste great but aren’t exactly “good” for you. The point here is that reality is always out there, cold and indifferent, ready to strike down our best intentions and return us to our worst habits.

Singleton might have better will power than I do, and let’s certainly hope so. We’d all hate for his story to end with him out of the game and feeling ill at a fast food restaurant. But perhaps willpower can only get you so far, and as habitual creatures, we need to be re-programmed to change those habits which need changing if we’re to have long-term success.

I seem to bring up Infinite Jest in each of these columns and that’s because I read all of the like 1,110 pages in that book and didn’t even get a trophy or an IQ bump, so I have to keep mentioning the fact that I read the book to feel better about myself and how I spend my time. Also, does any novel capture modern American society better than Infinite Jest? I can’t think of any. The themes of over-consumption, waste, addiction, compulsion, obsession, loneliness, and depression combine to paint a rather eery depiction of our arguably hollow society. On addiction, Wallace writes:

That most Substance-addicted people are also addicted to thinking, meaning they have a compulsive and unhealthy relationship with their own thinking…That 99% of compulsive thinkers’ thinking is about themselves; that 99% of this self-directed thinking consists of imagining and then getting ready for things that are going to happen to them; and then, weirdly, that if they stop to think about it, that 100% of the things they spend 99% of their time and energy imagining and trying to prepare for all the contingencies and consequences of are never good…In short that 99% of the head’s thinking activity consists of trying to scare the everliving [beep] out of itself.

In baseball, “Ninety percent of the game is half-mental.” In life, 100 percent of the game is half-mental or 100-percent mental.

Singleton has clearly been blessed with the physical tools to succeed as a ballplayer. He’s listed at 6’2″ and 255 pounds. He hit .279/.388/.466 during his minor league career after being selected in the 8th round of the 2009 draft. He’s been ranked as a top-100 prospect for four straight seasons, getting to as high as No. 25 on Baseball Prospectus’ list last year. He was a key piece in the trade that brought Hunter Pence over to the Phillies. He blasted a home run in his first game with Houston.

Yet those attributes and accomplishments aren’t all that unique at this level. What stands out about Singleton in comparison to other top prospects who’ve graduated to the show is his admission of drug addiction. Can he control his demons and reach the height of his ceiling, or will his mental activity drag him back down and limit what has the chance to be a great career?

The Astros have already made a bet on Singleton staying clean, and they should know more about him than anyone. Yet when it comes to the human psyche, there’s so much we don’t know, or perhaps it’s just that there’s so much we aren’t willing to admit.

Singleton is still a decent bet for fantasy owners and the executives in Houston. It’s just that in his case, he’s admitted his demons in a public manner, and since the information we have makes it sound as though he’s white-knuckling it, there is more risk associated with him than the typical prospect.


Trevor May: Fastball Command Key To Early-Season Success, Long-Term Potential

Author’s note: I was busy last night and this morning, so this piece was written yesterday afternoon, before May’s start at Charlotte. (Update: May extended his scoreless streak to 30 innings last night, before surrendering three runs in the fifth inning. His final line was 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 9 K)

As of this writing, four weeks have passed since Trevor May last allowed an earned run. The 24-year-old was terrific in May (pun not intended, but entirely unavoidable), posting a 1.47 earned run average in 36.2 innings, including a 26-inning stretch to close the month in which he surrendered just one unearned run.

Through ten starts, May’s ERA sits at a tidy 2.62, with a 3.04 FIP. He’s striking out just under a batter an inning, and his walk rate has dropped for the second consecutive year, which is a very good sign considering that he’s done so while also getting his first taste of Triple-A:

  • 2012 (Double-A) – 4.69 BB/9
  • 2013 (Double-A) – 3.98 BB/9
  • 2014 (Triple-A) – 3.60 BB/9

Read the rest of this entry »


The Daily Grind: 6-6-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Double Down on Effort
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Saturday Picks
  4. Table

FanDuel has unleashed the World Fantasy Baseball Championship; a week-long, $5,000,000 celebration of Fantasy Baseball in Las Vegas! The WFBC has something for everyone, from the $250,000 single-entry championship, to the live $3,000,000 DFBC Final in Las Vegas.

Remember to use promocode FANGRAPHS to get your huge 100% deposit bonus up to $200. Click here to win your seat ticket.

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Fantasy Strategy — June 6 — For Draftstreet

Let’s talk a little about league settings today. I’m assuming a few of you still play in standard leagues. Different settings have begun to take hold, though. For the first time in my life, I’m not in one league that uses batting average or wins.

I’m in five leagues this year; one keeper and one dynasty. Three of the leagues have the following settings: R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP x QS, ERA, WHIP, K, SV+HLD. One other league has the same settings, except SLG replaces HR and SV replaces SV+HLD. And my final league, here on Fangraphs (shameless company plug), is points based; Fangraphs points, specifically.

I like portions of each league. I love OBP – sure would be nice if ESPN offered wOBA, though – and I like giving credit for saves and holds, because as we all know, sometimes the “closer” isn’t anywhere near the best reliever on the team.

So far, my favorite setup is the Ottoneu league. Admittedly, it took a little while to come around to it. Some plays that have positive value in other leagues (RBI, etc.) don’t do anything for you in Ottoneu. I’ve come around quickly, though. It’s isolation at it’s finest. Player hits a double? Gets credit for it. Teammates don’t drive him in, though? No harm done. The league’s settings don’t punish players for having weaker teammates. Nor do they help out mediocre hitters who happen to be in the right place at the right time – cough, 2013 Brandon Phillips, cough.

So, what are your favorite settings?

Turn $11 into a share of $50,000 Playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.

$50,000 MLB PickEm Survivor Big Score

Pick 8 MLB Players from 8 tiers

This Weekend Enter for $11.

DraftStreet Pick’Em is the Easiest and Fastest Way to Win money playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.

Make your first deposit today and get up to $200 Free.

Draft Your 8 Man PickeEm Baseball Team Today for $11.

Read the rest of this entry »


RotoGraphs June Consensus Ranks: Third Base

Third base has had some nicks and cuts but has survived fairly intact. Sure, Evan Longoria has takent some time to get going, and David Wright looks like he won’t be that counting stat monster going forward. And Nolan Arenado’s injury has been a disappointment. I’m sure some of you are even upset about the terrible start Mike Moustakas has had.

But, generally, the position looks pretty good still.

Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup — Presented By DraftKings: June 6, 2014

Today’s Roto Riteup was written while I watch “Star Trek Into Darkness” on Netflix. I never watched any of the older films or the TV shows, but the reboot that came out in 2009 was something I enjoyed.

On today’s agenda:
1. Thoughts on Kendrys Morales
2. Another three-hit game for Chris Owings
3. Andrew Cashner to start tomorrow
4. Welcome to the big leagues, Eddie Butler
5. The daily five

Want to win $10,000 playing Opening Day fantasy baseball?  All first time depositors get a free entry into this contest by clicking the link!

Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: June 5, 2014

Vic Black figured to be a fixture in the late innings for the Mets this year and although he gave up a solo shot tonight he’s starting to work his way there. On the season Black has thrown 7.2 innings with 12 strikeouts against five walks with a 1.17/3.58/2.23 ERA/FIP/xFIP. Obviously it’s a small sample size but if he can keep his walks in check while getting whiffs he could start seeing higher leverage innings in Queens. Meanwhile Jenrry Mejia had a forgettable evening, allowing three base runners and two earned runs, entering the eighth inning down a run to the Cubs. Mejia has been pretty effective during his brief Mets tenure and this one outing shouldn’t have him looking over his shoulder but I’m not yet ready to make him green on the chart below.

Read the rest of this entry »


RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 06/05/2014

Episode 125

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss Eddie Butler, the Rockies’ outfield, Jedd Gyorko, Jedd Gyorko, Trevor Rosenthal, Zach Britton and Tommy Hunter, Jonathan Villar, Justin Smoak, SwStr% by pitch along with pitch values, players coming back, a Yankees call-up and Kole Calhoun.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have so that we may answer them on our next episode.

Read the rest of this entry »


Will Ditch of Switch Fix Aaron Hicks?

It could. Aaron Hicks has failed to impress in the major leagues, with a .192/.282/.311 slash line in 462 plate appearances, so it might be worth a shot. Hey, the results have been even worse in the 326 times he’s stood in the batter’s box against a right-handed pitcher as a left-handed hitter: .178/.259/.286. The split has been more pronounced in 2014: .149/.284/.209 in 82 plate appearances. His lifetime MLB ISO as a right-handed hitter is 64 points better than its counterpart.

Hicks made the decision on his own and then informed his agent and the organization of it. Standard practice is to discuss such a substantial change with one’s club before one makes it. The Minnesota Twins don’t seem to mind and have been supportive of his choice, both reactions that are more than understandable, at least to me, given my limited knowledge of the dynamic, however.

Read the rest of this entry »


Team Performance by Pitcher Handedness – Two Months In

We’re now over two months into the season, so we’re starting to get an idea of the strengths and weaknesses of certain teams. One of the stats we can start to leverage in fantasy leagues is offensive performance by pitcher handedness. By evaluating which teams excel or struggle against a pitcher orientation, we can sometimes find value plays or dangerous matchups to avoid.

Read the rest of this entry »