While y’all suckers are slaving away at your desk tomorrow, the current Roto Riteup author would like you to think of me sitting pantless in front of the TV, slowly drinking myself to death.

On today’s agenda:
1. Carl Crawford to DL, but don’t expect Joc Pederson
2. Matt Cain to start Saturday
3. A.J. Pollock sits on top
4. Fun with Arbitrary Endpoints
5. The Fast and Furious Fast

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• Ronald Belisario took the BS tonight. It wasn’t a complete meltdown, as the two hits in the inning were not tremendously well-struck and the walk that shows up in the box score was intentional. But results are results and he did not convert the save. Over the last few weeks, Belisario still has the best peripherals in this pen (2.70 xFIP) but  now owns the worst ERA (5.40). Manager Robin Ventura has previously said he’ll stick with Belisario, but this string of outings where he’s being BABIPed may cost him a shot at locking down the ninth inning gig.

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Just one MASH report this week as the holiday and other commitments took up my time. Next week, I will be back on a regular schedule of a Monday and Thursday post.

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The Braves finally pulled the plug on Dan Uggla for good, it seems. Tommy La Stella was promoted to help a bottom-three situation, and now fantasy owners want to know how much he can help their teams. Only fair.

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Since we’re past the point in the season where most pitchers have faced enough batters of each handedness for us to give some weight to their strikeout and walk rates, my plan was to take a look at pitchers who struggled against hitters of the opposite handedness last year to see if any had made any improvements so far this year. But in that pursuit I got completely sidetracked when I found a couple of guys who surprisingly had a reverse split in K-BB%. Read the rest of this entry »

Agenda

1. Guitar Riffs
2. Daily DFS
3. Thin Thursday
4. Table

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Usually I riff a little on pitching. There are two reasons behind that: I love pitching and I find it easier to analyze because the pitcher, for the most part, controls most of their fate. Sure defense plays a role, but I usually look at stats that take that into account in the first place.

If there was ever a pitcher that embodies “peripherals are more important at this stage of the season,” it’s Shelby Miller. If you focus on traditional stats, Miller hasn’t been that bad. He’s racked up six wins (!) and has a 3.18 ERA. As we know, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Miller’s been very, very lucky; not just with babip, either. Miller’s wiggled out of trouble a ton, evidenced by his 87.7% LOB%. His strikeout rate has plummeted ~5% while his walk rate has increased ~5%. All in all, Miller’s k-bb% (perhaps my favorite metric) has decreased nearly 10 percentage points. Not good.

Surely you, the astute Fangraphs reader, have known for a little while that Miller’s pitching on borrowed time. If you haven’t shopped him yet, do it quickly.

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Injuries and demotions are a deep league owner’s best friends, as long as they don’t occur to your players. But really, it’s one of the few ways to improve your roster since trading seems like an impossibility in such leagues. Both players in this week’s waiver wire are the beneficiaries of these two events.

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Today’s Roto Riteup author would like to point out that the holiday weekend is well over, so you better get back to work after you finish reading this, sucka.

On today’s agenda:
1. Negative MRIs for young guns…
2. But some injuries remain
3. Fun with Minor League stats
4. The Farmer’s Five

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Just a few quick notes from tonight…

-After picking up a save in his first appearance back from the disabled list, Jason Grilli got the call in the bottom of the eighth-inning tonight with the Bucs down two runs to the Mets. Grilli surrendered a leadoff single to start the inning, then fanned the next three consecutive batters to keep the Pirates within striking distance heading into the final frame. Despite the fact that the Pirates were unable to stage the late-inning comeback, reports indicate that Grilli’s outing could be one of the final hurdles the right-hander needed to clear before reclaiming the closer tag. Stadium guns clocked the veteran’s fastball in the 92-94 range, which seems to be right in line with career norms. For his career, Grilli is 43-for-54 in save situations, 33 of which came in 2013.
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