Archive for May, 2014

Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 10 — For Draftstreet

If you haven’t noticed by now, I usually like to spotlight a player who is struggling or excelling and shine a little light on why either is happening. Ian Kennedy will be our focus today. After being traded to San Diego by Arizona last season, Kennedy was pretty good (3.97 xFIP). And because of how he pitched down the stretch and the park he now calls home is so friendly, he was a target many people had going into draft season. Man, oh man, has he rewarded the owners (myself included) who either drafted him or picked up off of waivers.

Year K% BB% ERA FIP xFIP
2011 22.0% 6.1% 2.88 3.22 3.50
2012 20.8% 6.1% 4.02 4.04 4.13
2013 20.5% 9.2% 4.91 4.59 4.19
2014 28.3% 5.6% 3.12 2.33 2.66

Kennedy’s strikeout rate has spiked an incredible amount, and San Diego’s catchers may have a little to do with that. Both Yasmani Grandal and Rene Rivera grade out fantastic framers, according to the numbers. 25% of Kennedy’s strikeouts have occurred when a batter was caught looking. His highest percentage since his fantastic 2011 season. He’s caught opposing batters looking 14 times already, compared to 33 last season in  181 innings. Kennedy’s been able to leverage an increase in velocity, phenomenal catchers, and more ground balls into fantastic numbers so far. And I see no reason why he can’t continue it going forward.

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The Daily Grind: 5-10-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Evaluating a winning roster
  2. Today’s DFS
  3. Sunday Selects
  4. Table

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Roto Riteup — Presented By DraftKings: May 10, 2014

Today is the 20th anniversary of Weezer’s “Blue Album.” For me, Buddy Holly still ranks among my favorite music videos.

On today’s agenda:
1. Doug Fister’s rough return
2. A better return for Scott Feldman
3. Drew Pomeranz up, Dan Straily down
4. The Daily Five

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Fantasy Baseball Existentialism: Troy Tulowitzki Saves All

Let’s jump into some fantasy baseball and existential questions from the readers this week. Why should you ask me questions and take my advice? You absolutely shouldn’t; however, I did draft Troy Tulowitzki this year. Just go admire Tulo’s player card right now. We are not worthy. Hopefully the gods of baseball health acquiesce and keep this guy on the field so he can set the all-time WAR record or something insane.

Harry from San Francisco asks, “What happened to Will Venable?  Last year he was a 20/20 guy with a near .800 OPS.  This year, he’s failed to contribute even a single SB or HR to my team.  Do I give up?”

It’s early, obviously, but yes, I’d probably give up on Venable. He’s 31, he’s not getting the bat to the ball enough, the power is missing in action, and it’s not like he’s some horrendous victim of the BABIP gods right now. Also, unless you are in an NL only league, you should be able to upgrade on Venable even if he does get back to where he was last year (.268/.312/.484, 22 dingers, 22 SB). That near-30 percent strikeout rate and .060 ISO would send me running for the hills right now.

Michael from Gloucester, MA asks, “Is Chris Colabello a witch?”

To the best of my knowledge, Colabello is a living, breathing human being with no relation to witches. If nothing else, he’s a mediocre baseball player who I assume you are partial to because he went to college in Worcester which has some of the same letters as Gloucester. Also, if this is the same Michael from Gloucester who I once worked with for a number of very painful years, it’s time for you to get back to our shared cubicle. I miss you. We can fight the post-traumatic stress together by never leaving.

Also, Colabello is probably thinking that if he’s a mediocre baseball player according to this writer, well, this writer is a 20-grade talent. To which I say…I have no comeback there.

Turkelton from Boston, MA and the hit television show Scrubs asks the existentialist, “I’m in a 16-team, points based, head-to-head league. David Wright is currently my starting third baseman. I’m worried that he is going to eventually hit the shelf, so I’d like to ensure that I have a solid backup on the roster. The problem is that third base seems particularly shallow this season. Right now, I’m rostering Mike Olt who has third base eligibility (and a serious prospect pedigree). Olt offers some power upside, but he’s currently hitting a crisp .162/.237/.353. Here are some other options on the waiver wire: your namesake Mark Reynolds, Cody Asche, Lonnie Chisenhall, David Freese (currently on the DL), Donnie Murphy, etc. Should I hold on to Olt and trust his one-time prospect pedigree?”

My shoulder is still messed up from a recent car accident and I have no bat-to-ball skills. Wait, I’m getting my Mark Reynoldses confused here. Just stay away from anyone named Mark Reynolds. Freese gets hurt all the time, Olt and Chisenhall probably don’t play enough, and I honestly don’t even know what in the world Donnie Murphy is. Is he related to Donnie Baseball?

If the Cubs believed in Olt, wouldn’t they have just turned the position over to him for all 162 this year? What do the Cubs have to lose besides another century’s worth of baseball games? Chisenhall would be more deserving of a gamble than Olt, and Asche is probably your best bet because who else are the Phillies going to put there? The Phillies aren’t actually that bad for me. I’d take Chase Utley, Cliff Lee, A.J. Burnett, and a healthy Cole Hamels any day of the week. Okay, the Phillis probably are that bad despite those guys.

Richard from Alameda, CA asks, “Does good pitching beat good hitting?”

Good pitching beats good hitting and good hitting beats good pitching. As John Kenneth Galbraith said, “Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it’s just the opposite.” That written, even a great hitter doesn’t get on base 60 percent of the time. Thus, pitching generally beats hitting whether it’s good, bad, ugly, or indifferent. If I were a GM of something other than a fantasy baseball team, I’d draft position players over pitchers with high picks in most cases because of the high attrition rate of pitching prospects. For instance, I think the Astros blew it drafting Mark Appel last year. I watched Appel pitch in person several times at Stanford, and I never walked away thinking of him as some kind of future ace the way people probably did when they saw Stephen Strasburg dominate in college.

John from Petaluma, CA asks, “Should I regret not playing fantasy baseball this year for the first time ever, really?”

If you have to ask, you probably aren’t missing out too much. Like, if there was anything for you to regret, you’d be feeling it in the deepest recesses of your soul. There are a lot of things in my life that I regret having done or not done. That reminds me of the Taoist proverb, “When nothing is done, nothing is left undone.” I kind of understand that, but I couldn’t explain it for the life of me. I guess it means if you do nothing, there’s nothing…yeah, I don’t know. It’s all about the do-do. Intellectually understanding things isn’t that important, anyway, unless you can somehow apply it towards like right living.

Anyway, I quit baseball during my senior year of high school. I regret that decision. I’d probably be in the big leagues right now if I had kept playing. Okay, I definitely wouldn’t be in the big leagues, but the point here is that regret is something you know you are experiencing, not something you have to question. Fantasy baseball might not be for you anymore and that’s okay. It doesn’t matter either way.

Okay, we’ll leave it there for this week. If you have any fantasy questions you’d like answered in a future mailbag—if there is one—you can leave a comment or tweet at me. In the meantime, I’d strongly advise the acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki. He’ll improve your fantasy team and, if you’re like me, your extremely superficial, shallow, and sometimes low self-esteem.


Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 5.12-5.18

First a look at the running totals through half of week four:

8-5 record
3.73 ERA
8.6 K/9
3.1 K/BB
1.18 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

LHP Tyler Lyons – 0.3% ESPN/2% Yahoo!/17% own, 10% start CBS – v. CHC (.285), v. ATL (.299) Read the rest of this entry »


Marcus Stroman Is Not Long For The Bullpen

Last weekend, the Blue Jays called up consensus top-100 prospect Marcus Stroman, adding him to their bullpen in a middle relief role. It would be silly to expect him to stay in the bullpen for long, as Toronto’s rotation is just too thin and shallow for Stroman to pitch in relief long-term.

Brandon Morrow is already hurt (again), and also hadn’t yet been able to improve on last year’s 5.63 earned run average. Dustin McGowan, having thrown 30 innings so far this season, has already tossed more frames in the majors than he did in any given year from 2009-2013, and hasn’t been particularly good himself (4.80 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 5.41 xFIP).

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The Daily Grind: 5-9-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Feelings and Process
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Tomorrow’s Selections
  4. Table

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Players Shifted, Compared to Last Year

If fans thought they saw a bunch of shifts in last season, the numbers are really up even higher this year. Some players’ productions are really suffering because of the ideal defensive alignment. Today I am going to give a quick look at how often a batter hit into a shift compared to the same time frame in 2013.

Just a couple of reminders on the data. The data is for major infield shifts (3 or more players on one side of the infield). The data is only available on batted balls, so if a player was shifted and struck out, the data wasn’t available. Also, I did not include home runs. Finally, the data is a few days behind, so all data was taken from May 4th and earlier for both 2013 and 2014.

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Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 9 — For Draftstreet

The end of the week is nigh. By the time the games start tonight, you’ll be home free. After a short schedule today, we’re back to full capacity. Fifteen games are on the slate today, and forecasts around the league are good, temperature wise. We’re aware that higher temperatures are associated with higher run scoring, unfortunately weather reports don’t stop there. There’s a good chance of a couple of games at least being delayed, or played in less than ideal conditions. Those games are (listed in order from greatest chance of precipitation): Minnesota at Detroit, Colorado at Cincinnati, Chicago (NL) at Atlanta, and St. Louis at Pittsburgh.

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Jekyll & Hyde Marlins

tin-foil-hat

My best friend is an Atlanta Braves fan. He was born and raised in Puerto Rico and since TBS broadcasted games, that became his team. He’s stuck with them now as we are both into our 40’s, but after the Marlins shellacked Alex Wood 9-0, he sent me a text overnight – “Marlins are stealing signs at home, I’m convinced of it.”

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