Archive for April, 2014

The Daily Grind: 4-14-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. DFS is not for everyone
  2. Today’s stacks
  3. Tomorrow’s traditional plays
  4. An entirely unexpected table

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Daily Fantasy Strategy — April 14 — For Draftstreet

The platoon advantage is a huge part of picking hitters for daily lineups. But just because a hitter doesn’t have the platoon advantage does not always mean you shouldn’t pick that hitter on that day. Some guys are good enough against same-handed pitching. Some guys have reverse splits. And then how do you handle switch hitters who always have the platoon advantage? Which side are they better from?

Below are a couple of charts. The first shows the guys who either have reverse splits or don’t have much of a platoon split. From what I can tell, Draftstreet does factor in whether a player has the platoon advantage when calculating his price for the day. As a result, the guys in the first chart could be values on days they face same-handed pitching. And the second chart shows how switch hitters fare from both sides of the plate. It might be handy to bookmark this post if you need to look up a switch hitter’s splits as opposed to looking up their player page each time you’re thinking about using them.

I should note that I only included players who have at least 450 PA from both sides of the plate since the beginning of 2011.

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NL Starting Pitcher Velocity Changes

On Thursday, I discussed the American League starting pitchers who have experienced the largest changes in their fastball velocity since last season. Although still extremely early, and at a time where velocities are at their lowest points of the season, the data stabilizes rather quickly and still provides a ton of insight. Today we’ll check in on the National Leaguers.

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Roto Riteup — Presented by DraftKings: April 14, 2014

It’s the beginning of the third matchup in Head-to-Head leagues, where dreams are broken. Hopefully today’s Roto Riteup

Today’s Agenda
1. Alex Cobb hits the DL
2. The Rays’ rotation spots
3. Aaron Harang still going strong
4. The Daily Five

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Alex Cobb hits the DL
The Rays’ starter is going to miss at least a month with an oblique strain, and he could end up missing up to six or eight weeks with the injury. If you watch the highlights of Cobb’s start, he seemed to show some sort of discomfort starting out with the first batter he faced, yet he pitched through the rest of the start in typical dominant fashion. Thankfully this isn’t a shoulder or elbow problem, but it’s still nasty and will be hell on fantasy owners who were banking on his production.

The Rays’ rotation spots
Before Cobb hurt himself, the Rays were already trying out Cesar Ramos as a rotation member, but he got hit around a little bit by the Reds yesterday and doesn’t have much of a track record of success as a starter. Erik Bedard is coming to the rotation to replace Cobb, but we all know how brittle he is, and he wasn’t exactly great last year in Houston. Pitching in Tampa with a good defense behind him will help Bedard out quite a bit, but he’s still not going to be relevant for most of you, outside of maybe daily fantasy games.

Aaron Harang still going strong
Harang may be my new favorite pitcher to follow, because this is just getting ridiculous. Harang hurled six strong innings against the Nationals yesterday, striking out five while only walking one. While the Nationals were without Ryan Zimmerman and Denard Span, Washington still has a solid offense, so it’s not like Harang just plowed through a cupcake. Harang now has an ERA and WHIP under one in three starts, averaging almost a strikeout per inning. Where was this in Seattle last year?


The Daily Five

SP – Jesse Chavez, $6,900
The third cheapest starter available today, I was impressed with Chavez when I watched him pitch against Seattle. Going to Los Angeles to face the Angels won’t be easy, but he should pull through nicely.

SP – Jordan Zimmermann, $9,800
Zimm may have struggled during his last outing, but he’s in Miami against the Marlins today.

C – Derek Norris, $3,800
Norris should be good for at least a walk against Hector Santiago, if not an extra base hit.

3B – David Wright, $4,400
Wright is pretty cheap and he gets to square off against Josh Collmenter in Arizona.

OF – Alex Rios, $4,000
Rios gets Roenis Ellias in Texas.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of DraftKings. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.


Bullpen Report: April 13, 2014

Warning: Long (but juicy!) Bullpen Report ahead.

• If you are trying to read the tea leaves and decipher who will get the next chance in the Athletics bullpen, the situation is now clear. … as mud. Yesterday night saw Sean Doolittle pitch the eighth and open the ninth inning (which was slated to have lefty-lefty-lefty due up). The Mariners pinch hit with one out, which resulted in Bob Melvin countering and playing handedness, bringing in righty Luke Gregerson, who looked good (ignore the two hits, both were good pieces of hitting on pitches either at the bottom or out of the zone) in wrapping up the save.

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The Daily Grind: 4-13-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Snake Bit
  2. DFS Picks
  3. Monday at Yahoo (and other standard sites)
  4. Guess

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Daily Fantasy Strategy — April 13 — For Draftstreet

Sundays are the best. Not only is the afternoon filled with baseball, today MLB has graced us with a well-staggered schedule, meaning there will be a handful of games on at any given time.

Unfortunately, staggered start times can make daily fantasy plays riskier, because it means less certainty when setting your lineup. Sure, weekdays bring that concern too, but there are normally enough 7 p.m. starts that, if you’re risk-averse in that regard, you can structure your team such that you don’t have roster spots subject to the whims of managers.

Today, that’s less apparent, and zeroes are the worst. But there are ways to work around it.

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Roto Riteup — Presented By DraftKings: April 13, 2014

On April 13, 1970 the Apollo 13 mission suffered the catastrophic failure that endangered the lives of the three astronauts aboard. For just a taste of the dramatic events unfolding, the film “Apollo 13” does an excellent job, however the documentary “Apollo 13: To the Edge and Back” is absolutely incredible.

On today’s agenda:
1. Bad news for Mat Latos?
2. Charlie Blackmon is on fire
3. Michael Bourn to return Tuesday
4. The Daily Five

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Bullpen Report: April 12, 2014

-The Boston Red Sox have shut down their 39-year-old closer, Koji Uehara, for the time being after experiencing tightness in his shoulder after completing a session of long-toss. The right-hander will attempt to throw again tomorrow (Sunday) before Boston’s brass determines if a trip to the disabled list will be necessary for their ninth-inning man. For the Red Sox and fantasy owners, the concern here lies in the comparison Uehara made between the stiffness he felt in the shoulder this Friday and the injury he suffered as a member of the Rangers two years ago. Then, the should stiffness continued to resurface, resulting in a two-and-a-half month stint on the shelf.
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Daily Fantasy Strategy — April 12 — For Draftstreet

Well, last night was a dud. Chris Sale and Jose Fernandez got knocked around a bit. Andrew Cashner was phenomenal, and pretty much everyone I recommended performed rather poorly despite their match-up advantages. Here’s to hoping today is a little more fruitful.

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