Bullpen Report: April 13, 2014
Warning: Long (but juicy!) Bullpen Report ahead.
• If you are trying to read the tea leaves and decipher who will get the next chance in the Athletics bullpen, the situation is now clear. … as mud. Yesterday night saw Sean Doolittle pitch the eighth and open the ninth inning (which was slated to have lefty-lefty-lefty due up). The Mariners pinch hit with one out, which resulted in Bob Melvin countering and playing handedness, bringing in righty Luke Gregerson, who looked good (ignore the two hits, both were good pieces of hitting on pitches either at the bottom or out of the zone) in wrapping up the save.
Today everything was reversed. Gregerson locked down the eighth inning; setting down three righties (Kyle Seager, Mike Zunino, Willie Bloomquist) in order. Sean Doolittle was called on in the ninth inning with two lefties due up (Brad Miller and Robinson Cano) and, outside of a Cano single, polished off the 3-0 victory.
Given usage the last two nights, this has all the makings (at least temporarily) of a true committee. Doolittle versus lefties, Gregerson versus righties. It’s somewhat interesting Melvin chooses to think of it this way — Doolittle has actually historically been tougher on righties (.250 wOBA against versus .266 wOBA against lefties). Either way, if you own both guys, you will need to lock up two RP slots if you want to try and peg the ninth inning. Perhaps you can “gamble” based on opposing team handedness — with the Angels big boppers being righty-heavy, I might lean Gregerson next series — but it’s certainly no sure thing. Further complicating matters is that Jim Johnson looked good Friday night (striking out 4 of the 6 batters he faced). The Athletics would prefer to have their $10 million man manning the back end of the bullpen, so just try and ride the Doolittle/Gregerson express while you can (and scoop up Johnson if he’s been dropped for some reason).
• We’ve got dueling blown saves in Cleveland! First Matt Lindstrom “melted down” with a one-run lead in the top of the inning. Imagine me doing air quotes around “melted down” because a Jose Abreu error to open the inning really opened the floodgates (neither run was technically earned). That said, Lindstrom did himself no favors, allowing a couple hits and actually wild-pitching in the go-ahead run. John Axford then turned around and coughed the lead right back, eventually allowing a two-run tater of the walk-off flavor to Alexei Ramirez.
Lindstrom hasn’t been terrible as the White Sox closer (he’s been bitten a bit by BABIP and bad LOB% luck) but he’s certainly not missing any bats. Only two whiffs in 25 batters faced. Yuck. History tells us that’s unlikely to change, either. Luckily for Chicago fans, the White Sox have two natural options with nice strikeout potential behind him should Robin Ventura let go of his Proven Closer(TM!) binky. While Nate Jones remains on the disabled list, Daniel Webb has continued his impressive pitching beyond spring training. I’m officially grabbing Webb where I can and hoping Ventura comes to his senses and moves to the big righty with the mid-upper 90’s fastball and 13.2% career SwStr%. Jones isn’t a terrible add if you have the DL-slot room, but he’s still not throwing.
Axford was a trendy pre-season pick to lose his job (to Cody Allen) early, although the mustache seems to have avoided the first week closer drama. That said, he’s up to 6 walks in 26 batters faced after today’s meltdown. Walks have always been his Achilles’ heel; he has the stuff to be elite, he just doesn’t know where half of his pitches are going. He was four-for-four in save opportunities coming into this game, so the ugly outing won’t cost him his job, but we’ll move him to yellow temporarily because I don’t like the way those peripherals are trending.
• Will Smith notched the SV today, coming in to retire the last batter when Kyle Lohse couldn’t quite finish off a complete game. If I said “Smith is killer on lefties, guess who he faced?” you’d probably answer “Pedro Alvarez.” And you’d be right. And he (Pedro) also didn’t stand a chance against the lefty killing Smith, who is apparently is trying to reproduce his ridiculous 50% K% versus lefties from last season. Unfortunately for save mongers, “The Fresh Prince” profiles more as a LOOGY than a closer, so I wouldn’t be investing too highly in him leapfrogging both Francisco Rodriguez and Jim Henderson anytime soon. Although he does make an appearance on the closer grid thanks to Brandon Kintzler hitting the DL.
• We’ll touch on this briefly since it happened after publish last night. Jose Valverde melted down in a big way, going single-walk before giving up an absolute bomb to 78-year-old Raul Ibanez to turn a 6-3 lead into a 6-6 game. This wasn’t a case of good hitting, the pitch Ibanez roped was a meatball I’d like to think even I (now six years removed from my last competitive non-slow-pitch-with-Coors-Light game) could have taken to the track. What is there to say? That’s Papa Grande. If his splitter isn’t working and he can’t spot the fastball, he’s going to get crushed. You knew this when you added him. You’ll get some saves and you’ll get some ERA/WHIP killing nights. Like drunken romps at Foxwoods Casino, play at your own risk.
• Jon Heyman reports Joel Hanrahan will throw for a multitude of teams (Mets, Yankees, Royals, Athletics, Red Sox and Dodgers (among others, apparently)) Thursday in Tampa. It’s tough to know how much of Hanrahan’s massive regression the last two seasons was due to potential elbow injury, so watch for word about his velocity. If he’s heaving it up there in the low-mid 90’s, he could be a nice get for a team struggling in the late innings (I’m assuming he picks up another 1-2 mph or so as he works back). Some interesting landing spots would be the Mets and Cubs, who could use new ninth inning men. However, I wouldn’t be rushing to the wire to grab him if he signs with most anyone else — he’d almost certainly function exclusively as a setup man in the immediate future.
• Quick notes: Koji Uehara threw on the side today. John Farrell sounded upbeat, but he sounded the same way before Clay Buchholz disappeared for months last season, so I’d steer clear of Boston’s closer in weekly leagues if I had options. As Alan touched on last night, Jose Veras has been removed from the ninth inning. I got to see a little of Hector Rondon the last few nights and really like his arsenal (9/3 K/BB in 27 batters faced). If Pedro Strop is gone and you want to burn a spot, you could definitely do worse.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
Hey Colin, when you mention Doolittle’s wOBA against lefties you also need to consider the lefties he’s facing. Cano lifetime has an OPS of .894 against RHP and .790 against LHP. Miller last year was .767 against RHP and .674 versus LHP
True, but you have to remember that the league average LHP is better against lefties and the league average LHB is worse against lefties.
Therefore, Doolittle’s splits are likely more important than Batter X’s splits in aggregate.
Ventura said Webb and Cleto would get more high-leverage situations going forward. Cleto set up Lindstrom today. Could be 50/50 if Ventura pulls Lindstrom, right?
Oakland in green. LMFAO.
Yeah, there apparently was some issues getting the master BR template copied over from the last couple BRs. Now fixed.
You actually find it that amusing?
You saw the acronym right?
Easily amused are we?
In a 10-team 5×5 where moves are very limited (30 all season), how would you rank Mujica, Doolittle, Lindstrom, Nate Jones and Daniel Webb? I currently have Lindstrom and Mujica.
Went into the season with Uehara, Parnell, Jones and Henderson as my four closers. Ugh.
Depends on Uehara, but I guess I’d rank them Webb, Doolittle, Jones, Mujica, Lindstrom, but Mujica jumps to top of list if Sox get bad news on Koji.
Up to you how desperate you are for a closer. If you feel you can spare the moves, moving with a Webb/Jones combo gives you leverage on the ChiSox and good rates if they don’t pan out as ninth inning guys.
Thanks for the advice and super quick reply. I’m pretty desperate, given I have just two saves on the year. I generally don’t like drafting more than two closers, but given the format I thought it best not to play the closer carousel game so I took four. Now I potentially have zero. Best laid plans and all that …
Bass has 2 saves for HOU…yet not in grid. Any clarification other than HOU is a team that sucks right now? When Crain gets healthy does he step in?
It sounds like you’d own Daniel Webb over Ryan Cook, huh? Think there’s a chance Cook gets save chances in Oaktown at some point, or no?
Honestly, I think Oakland wants Johnson just to right the ship and ease back into the closer role. Melvin has been vague and tonights situation bringing Doolitte in further cements (in my opinion) that they fully intend Johnson to get back to being “the guy in the 9th.” Last year in Baltimore, he melted down for 3 stretches. Despite that, he still maintained an ERA under 3. The A’s just want him to be Jim Johnson again, the guy who closed over 100 games for the O’s over a 2 year stretch. When Johnson is on, he is a ground ball inducing machine and with Oakland’s defense, he can be one of the best closers in the MLB. He can be inconsistent, but when he is on, JJ is absolutely dominant.
Possibly, but Ryan is right about the JJ thing.
Alternatively, Matt Murphy (see the link in my Weds BR) has done some interesting research that shows Oakland might be better served keeping Cook away from getting too many saves (which would inflate his arb value).
The other issue with Cook is he’s still working his way back from injury. Unless all three of the guys in front of him implode, it’s likely someone grasps the ninth inning job before he’d have a chance to.
If Webb becomes closer for CWS and runs well with it, do you think when Nate Jones returns that he’ll take over?
I think if Webb gets the job (an if, not a certainty by any means) and does well, Jones would fall into a setup role.
I think it’s pretty clear that Ventura didn’t see a whole lot of daylight between the two of them immediately after spring training — I don’t think Jones’ pedigree is strong enough that he can take the job away from anyone if they perform well in the role.
Do you think Santos will keep the closer job when Janssen returns? Asking because I’m not familiar with the salaries of both players like in Oakland where Jim Johnson is paid well to close.
Million dollar question.
I think Santos has a good shot to hold the job since the team originally traded for him to be their closer and he profiles more as a late inning “blow-em-away” type guy than Janssen (not a knock on Janssen who has been fantastic). But Santos really has to avoid speedbumps to do so.
Janssen is a FA after this year but Santos has options (technically, he is arb eligible if they decline an option, but the Jays wouldn’t bring him back if that was the case) so there isn’t any real contract pressure for either.
Strop, Gregerson, or Doolittle?
Thanks Colin!
I like Gregerson, Doolittle, Strop in that order.
I think if anyone emerges from the Chicago mess (who is already on the roster) it is Hector Rondon.
How far away from seeing save opportunities do you think Germen is in New York? This Papa Grande fling can’t last that much longer, right? Farnsworth isn’t exactly a much better option either.
We’re a few more implosions away from that. The Mets strike me as the most likely team to look for outside help in their bullpen situation. My gut tells me they will be big players in the Hanrahan sweepstakes, but that may just be the Indian food from tonight.
Why would the Mets shell out money for a free agent reliever? Isn’t that something a contending team is more likely to do (yeah, I know, it’s early, but the Mets are terrible)? Though, OTOH, maybe the Mets also would rather keep a pre-arb player from collecting saves, since this is apparently the trend.
p.s. I’m of Indian descent, so I hope my people didn’t cause you too much gastrointestinal distress.
Any comments on a Vic Black sighting? Picked up a 1 out save and has 4K’s in 2.1 innings. ‘Small sample’ my ass, he’s the best bet to close by the all-star break!
I’m with Colin in that I think Hector Rondon and Daniel Webb need to be stashed wherever available. Jed Hoyer was quoted as saying that they want their closer to throw strikes, and Rondon seems to be a far better bet than Strop in that regard. Regarding Webb, I think Ventura and Co. will have the off-day to assess the situation and will give Webb a shot at the ninth effective immediately. Ventura has a track record of wacky bullpen usage, but it should be pretty clear by now that Lindstrom isn’t the answer.
Kyle Seager is left handed
He throws right handed actually. If you’re implying that he bats from the left side of the plate then, yes, you are correct.
When Robertson comes back, who is the best add after dropping Kelley? All of the OAK guys are gone, but JJ is out there. Daniel Webb and Jones are currently available. None of the Cubs guys are around.
Im thinking Webb or JJ?
Would you rather roster a Daniel Webb/Nate Jones combo or Strop/Rondon combo in search of saves (or some other mixture of those guys for 2 spots)?
Since Veras has officially been demoted and Lindstrom hasn’t, I’d suspect Strop/Rendon would more immediately give you saves.
Colin, maikel cletos been mentioned as a potential for the white sox. Good numbers so far but what’s his profile compared to Webb? Josh mentioned he set up lindstrom last night.