Jacoby Ellsbury takes his shiny new ring and shiny new contract to don what are ostensibly shiny new pinstripes, leaving the Boston Red Sox with a differently named center fielder on opening day for the first time since Coco Crisp played there in 2007. But the old out/new in truism certainly applies here as Ellsbury leaving creates new opportunities for fantasy baseball enthusiasts at a position I’m not finding particularly deep in 2014. Read the rest of this entry »

As the Philadelphia Phillies look to improve a bullpen that finished 26th in baseball last year in WAR, they’ll hope that their two setup men are able to stay on the field and a collection of young pitchers matures as the team enters a rebuilding era. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, there isn’t is a lot to choose from among Philly’s reliever corps as spring training gets underway.

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Now would be a good time to talk about the Mets outfield, both because spring training convened in full this week, and because manager Terry Collins made comments last Friday that may throw a wrench into otherwise well-laid plans.

A week ago, before the team made any concrete decisions regarding 2014, the most sensible solution looked to be defensive whiz Juan Lagares in center field, big ticket free agent signing Curtis Granderson in one of the corner spots, Chris Young in the other, and some combination of Eric Young, Jr. and Lucas Duda serving as reserves or injury replacements. That was before Collins met with the media Friday afternoon and offered this:

Collins on leadoff: I’m going to talk to Chris Young about leading off Sitting here today Eric Young is the guy you’d like to see at the top

— New York Mets (@Mets) February 14, 2014

So where does that leave things as we head into spring training, and what does that mean for fantasy owners?

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I didn’t spend the time to click through each team in the Steamer projections, but I’m guessing the Red Sox are one of few teams, if not the only team, to have the five guys projected to pitch the most innings each be projected for 2+ WAR. They may not have an elite starter, but their rotation has nice depth.

Although not elite, Jon Lester isn’t a bad first option. He’s going on six straight years of 190+ IP, and he topped 200 IP in five of those six years. From 2008 to 2011 he coupled the workhorse inning totals with a sub-3.50 ERA. But the wheels came off in 2012. He lost velocity, and his ERA ballooned up to 4.82 while his strikeout rate fell to league average. Luck also played a part in the down year as his HR/FB rate was about four points higher than his career average, which contributed to a career low strand rate that was about seven points below his career average.

Not that we should have seen such a blow up coming, but the signs were there in 2011 that Lester was in decline. His strikeout rate had hovered just above 26% in the two years prior to 2011, but it fell to 22.8% that year. That contributed to the highest ERA (3.47) of that four year stretch and the first time in three years that his SIERA was above 3.50. At that point it was probably safe to assume that a slow decline had begun. Given that Lester’s ERA finished at 3.75 last year, maybe we should have expected to land in the 3.60 range in 2012 if all else had been equal. Read the rest of this entry »

The Marlins, as bad as they are, have an entertainingly wanton disregard of service time considerations for their top prospects. Marcell Ozuna is one example of this philosophy (or lack thereof). In late April of last year, despite having no chance of either contending or selling tickets, Miami called up Ozuna, who had logged a grand total of 47 career plate appearances above A-ball. For those of you wondering, Ozuna will now very likely get the Super Two tag on him, making him arbitration-eligible in 2016.

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Before we get to the desolate corner spots in the Baltimore outfield, let’s at least focus on Adam Jones and the value he brings to fantasy baseball. He hits in the .280s, he puts up between 25-33 homers, he steals 12-16 bases, and he scores 100 runs. Last year, he even drove in 108. That’s an extremely valuable player who can help you in every category, especially since he’s done it for a few years in a row now. No one’s suggesting he’s the fantasy equivalent of Mike Trout or even a first-round pick, because he’s not, but that kind of production puts him squarely in the discussion for a top-10 or -15 outfielder. Still on the right side of 30, Jones remains a valuable fantasy asset for 2014.

But of course, any discussion about how well Jones has performed has to come hand-in-hand with the absolutely terrifying prospect of how long he can continue with a walk rate that is only slightly higher than yours or mine. Back in November, Eno Sarris looked at Jones’ comparables as far as similar walk, strikeout, and power rates: Read the rest of this entry »

Maybe we all use rankings differently. Most of the time, I look at rankings and try to find where I value players differently. That’s gold! A ranking that’s too high for my liking means I can throw that player to get money on the table, or wait a round because I’m sure someone will take him. A player I like better than others is someone I can wait for.

I guess there might be a ranking out there that would be perfect for me, that I would take and use for myself without editing. Not even sure my rankings are those rankings. Because we’re getting information daily and that can nudge a guy up or down. But sure, I’ll be using my rankings in my drafts, in some form.

What you could also do is use the spreadsheet that will come at the end of these rankings, bump guys up or down a bit as you see fit, and really personalize your ranks for your needs, wants, desires and outlook on life. That might work, too.

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Episode 95

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Cincinnati Reds and the Boston Red Sox.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music Approximately 72 min of joyous analysis.

ADP results from NFBC

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The Yankees have cobbled together a strange team, and the infield most strongly personifies this strangeness. New York is seemingly counting on three players who scarcely played last season due to injury and another who is new to his position (aside from 118 innings last season). Stephen Drew remains on the market and would seemingly solve a lot of problems, but it sounds like the Yankees are uninterested.

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• Albert Pujols is not able to play first base right now and may not for the season’s start.

Albert Pujols had a normal offseason and has pronounced himself completely healthy, but Angels manager Mike Scioscia will not be playing him at first base on an everyday basis once Cactus League games start.

“He’s not at that point,” Scioscia said.
….

Scioscia said the goal was for Pujols to play first base “on a regular basis” when the season starts but that they would take it slow and have backup plans if the 34-year-old is not ready by Opening Day on March 31.

If Pujols isn’t physically able to play in the field, his offense is for sure going to suffer. He sounds like a station to runner (less Runs) and will be a double play machine. Given other possible options, he will have to fall quite a bit from his current draft position for me to consider rostering him.

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