Addison Reed is fascinating, I think. He’s seen as a star closer because he came up as a rookie in 2012 and saved 29 games, then 40 more in 2013, despite playing for a Chicago team that seemed like it had a lead to hang onto about once a week. Those 69 saves are good for the ninth-most in history through a player’s age-24 season, which is both impressive and terrifying — while Craig Kimbrel is on that list, so are flameouts like Gregg Olson and Chad Cordero.

Since fantasy baseball isn’t real baseball, it’s often a simple equation of {if (saves=yes) then (pitcher=draft-him)}. Reed gets saves, so you draft him, and that’s why he’s #12 on our closer rankings. But there’s a reason he’s not in the top 10, and it’s certainly not because he has a problem missing bats, not when he’s whiffed 138 in 133.2 major league innings. It’s because for all the things Reed does very well, he hasn’t always done a particularly great job of simply preventing runs from scoring. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 87

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris preview the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 100 min of joyous analysis, & excuse the barking dog about 90 minutes in.

FSTA draft results mentioned several times in the show

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As you might have noticed, we are a few days into our offseason analysis of relievers. We’ve mostly discussed the best of the best thus far, and we’ve been sure to warn everybody that waiver wire hawks may want to allocate the $20 it takes to win a Craig Kimbrel to another position. If you’re the kind of guy who finds a Koji Uehara or Mark Melancon for free year after year, why should you pay $20 for a closer? You’ll eventually get your saves – even if you’re at the bottom of the pile in April – and the extra $20 could go into hiring 20 more home runs and RBI in the outfield or a catcher that contributes in more than one category.

Like every other position, closers also get hurt. Unlike most other positions, the guy who steps in as the next closer is sometimes as good or better than the first guy. Again, see Uehara and Melancon. So that’s the common line of thinking on elite relievers, that an active owner can find underpriced saves without taking on the injury risk of a $20 relief asset. However, there are definitely circumstances where it makes all the sense in the world to pay for 40 saves, massive strikeout totals, and drool worthy ratios.

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When the news broke that the Tigers signed veteran closer Joe Nathan, Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski also announced that the team and the man who finished the 2013 season as their closer, Joaquin Benoit, would be parting ways, citing that the 35-year old righthander was no longer “a fit for the Tigers.” With that, Benoit jumped into the free agent pool and came away with a two-year, $15.5 million contract from the San Diego Padres where he is expected to fill the exact same role he filled for Detroit when he first signed with them back in 2011; a bridge between starter and closer with the potential to close out games, if needed. The deal works well for both parties as Benoit gets a contract comparable to what free agent closers have been getting and the Padres get a replacement for, and upgrade to, Luke Gregerson. Read the rest of this entry »

After taking over the closer role for an ineffective Trevor Hoffman in late May of 2010, John Axford was lights out through the 2011 season. Unfortunately for the Brew Crew, the magic couldn’t last and a severe care of gopheritis reared its ugly head the following year. Despite posting similar skills, Axford’s ERA ballooned to 4.67 as a result. But, he limped through the season and still managed to save 35 games.

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It’s probably safe to say that Kenley Jansen has finally freed himself from the shackles of setup relief duty. Since entering the league in 2010, Jansen has been comparable to the historically excellent Craig Kimbrel with one exception, the Dodgers keep blocking him at closer. In 2013, it was the recently re-signed Brandon League who stood between Jansen and fantasy reliever gold. Of course, League asploded and hemorrhaged runs all over the field, so Jansen was called back into action. He was worth over $14 according to Zach Sanders, a value that was held down by just 28 saves.

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Even if you haven’t been playing in leagues that value holds, it is hard to forgive for missing Ryan Cook’s past two seasons. Since the start of 2012 season, Cook has accumulated a 2.30/2.82/3.59 ERA/FIP/xFIP. His 3.14 SIERA for the past two seasons is just as impressive. Saves or not, those peripherals plus his 25.3% strikeout rate equates to a strong fantasy bullpen member.

Despite the fact that Cook ranked outside the top 50 of Zach Sanders’ 2013 End of Season Relief Pitcher Rankings, Cook has several positives going for him when looking ahead to this season. Last year his average fastball of 95 mph rated as the 24th fastest among qualified relievers. He is primarily a fastball/slider guy, though he will mix in the occasional change-up and sinker. As per BrooksBaseball.net, a table showing Cook’s pitch selection for all of last season can be found below.
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As you may have surmised, this week we here at RotoGraphs are looking at relief pitchers this week. Much of the focus tends to be spent on closers, but seeing as how volatile the ‘position’ is, the set-up men deserve their proper due. And one of the more reliable set-up men over the last few years who certainly deserves the recognition is none other than Luke Gregerson. The former Padres reliever has been a staple in the San Diego bullpen and given the frailty of Huston Street, the Padres longtime closer, he’s been as close to a must-own reliever as you can get without regularly accruing saves. However, now that Gregerson has landed in Oakland, his value heads south for a variety of reasons. Read the rest of this entry »

Tigers closer Joe Nathan once again finds himself in a desirable fantasy situation. By moving from Texas to Detroit, Nathan gets to close for another contending club. Nathan is also coming off one of the finest seasons of his career. Over 64.2 innings, Nathan posted a 1.39 ERA with 43 saves. In most cases, fantasy owners would be comfortable relying on that closer the following year. In Nathan’s case, his age is starting to get worrisome. Nathan will be 39 when the season begins, and he’ll need to defy Father Time if he wants to continue posting excellent numbers.

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The Rays are no stranger to handing over the closing reigns to a pitcher without that elusive “established closer” tag. Most recently, they essentially turned the ninth inning over to guys they acquired off the scrap heap or solid, but unspectacular, middle relievers. The team is somewhat doing it again as they acquired former established closer Heath Bell, who you figure will get a shot to be the stopper.

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