I’m really good at burying the lead, but this time it would be silly to. Because any analysis of the Angels infield absolutely must begin with Albert Pujols. The future hall of famer (let’s hope, I feel like nothing is obvious anymore given the state of the BBWAA) used to be as consistently great as one could possibly ask for. He was arguably the best hitter in baseball at points and wOBAd between .404 to .461 for 10 straight seasons. Damn.

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Episode 90

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the San Francisco Giants and the Cleveland Indians.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 77 min of joyous analysis.

FSTA draft results mentioned several times in the show

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Let’s not dance around the subject, Jarrod Parker has an outstanding change-up. Since his first full season in 2012, Parker has teased fantasy analysts with a below average strikeout rate and above average swinging strike rate. Generally speaking, we consider swinging strike rate to be a leading indicator on overall strikeout rate. So Parker will get more strikeouts in 2014, right? Right???

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We probably can’t be worse.

That’s the likely slogan for the Houston Astros rotation entering 2014, because the 2013 rotation was a flaming tire-fire. Then finished 27th as a group in innings pitched, averaging fewer than 17 outs a turn, 26th in strikeouts per nine innings, 28th in ERA and tops for free passes issued.

The Twins, Orioles and Blue Jays were the only teams worse in terms of fielding-independent pitching metrics (4.42 FIP). It would be difficult for the rotation to get worse, is what we’re saying. But it’ll be a largely new crew, and they’ll try their best!
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If you run a report on our trusty Leaderboard section for the Seattle Mariners outfield, you’d think something has gone wrong with our database. Indeed, ranking the qualified outfielders for the 2013 Mariners outfield yields zero results. This is largely due to the front office investing in horrible outfielders or because the majority of their outfielders rotated on the trainers table like they got free Skittles for doing so. Or I suppose lastly, because they needed to convert a former first round second baseman to the outfield. Sigh.

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Last year the Oakland Athletics bullpen ranked in the top 10 in terms of ERA and FIP. More advanced metrics didn’t find as much favor with their body of work, as the A’s pen ranked middle of the road in terms of SIERA and xFIP. Given the park they call home, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the A’s relievers posted the second best HR/FB rate, coming in second to the Mariners. Being satisfied with the status quo usually isn’t Billy Beane’s style, and this offseason he moved around plenty of parts. There are some new faces to don the white cleats as well as some returning contributors, but the key is this team has fantasy relevant talent in this pen outside of the closer.

The closer
Jim Johnson

Johnson may be one of the new guys, but his job is secure as the club’s closer. His strong ground ball rate helps make up for his lack of swing-and-miss stuff and it is impossible to argue his recent work. Over the past two years Johnson leads baseball with 86 shutdowns against 15 meltdowns. For context, Aroldis Chapman has 80 SD and 14 MD and Craig Kimbrel has posted a 76:9 ratio. Johnson is a solid bet to gain saves and good ratios even if he lacks in the strikeout department.
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When looking for offensive prowess, drafting Texas Rangers hitters tends to be a high priority. It’s a rule of thumb in the fantasy baseball world, practically the yin to the “never draft Rockies pitchers” yang. The dimensions of the Ballpark at Arlington are downright juicy with a 332 ft. left field line, a 325 ft. right field line and the deepest part of the park sitting just 407 ft. away from home plate. It’s a hitter’s paradise. That may tend to inflate the value on draft day of some of their players, but in looking at the Rangers’ outfield, the high picks should be worth it. Read the rest of this entry »

If there’s one thing you want to say about Seattle’s bullpen it’s… well, it’s pretty cheap. Like getting paid “what fell out of Robinson Cano’s coin purse” cheap. But while it’s cheap, it’s filled with guys who throw hard. Guys who throw hard tend to get whiffs. Guys who get whiffs have a chance to be valuable. And if you’re concerned with middle relievers in your fantasy leagues, guys who get whiffs are exactly who you should be targeting as upside plays.

The closer
Danny Farquhar

Farquhar burst onto the scene in 2013, notching 16 saves in the stead of a certain former bartender-turned-closer who shall remain nameless (but appears below). Read the rest of this entry »

The situation in the Los Angeles Angels outfield looks far more hellish than it did a season ago. Mike Trout reprises his role as all-around best player in the game, but he’ll be flanked by the aging Josh Hamilton and an unproven Kole Calhoun. While everyone will be rushing to grab Trout early, both Hamilton and Calhoun can make or break teams. A rebound by Hamilton, or breakout from Calhoun, could shoot fantasy teams up the leaderboard. Is either player worth the risk?

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So we know that the back of the Angels bullpen should probably perform better this year, but how will the games begin? The organization had a busy offseason, acquiring two young starting pitchers via trade to round out what will amount to a very interesting staff.

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