2014 Shortstop Tier Rankings: June
Disclaimer: After watching Randy Wolf throw six good innings on Monday night, I’m no longer sure I know anything about baseball, so what follows may just be gibberish.
And, of course, there’s no turning back from my early-May proclamation that Troy Tulowitzki is now in a tier of his own at the shortstop position. Four weeks later, the Rockies slugger has cooled some – he “only” had a wRC+ of 172 in May, compared to 211 in April, and he’s off to a horrid 1-for-4 in June – but he’s still producing far beyond what any player at the position could even dream of.
Having said that, the resurgence of Hanley Ramirez, the continued success of Alexei Ramirez and the staying power of some early-season surprises, the position remains an interesting one.
Tier One
Tulowitzki
Even if you love Hanley Ramirez, Tulowitzki projects to beat him handily in every category except stolen bases for the rest of the season. The only reason anyone would take Ramirez is a belief that Tulowitzki is “due” to get injured, which is not only impossible to know but also ignores Ramirez’ own spotty track record for healthy.
Tier Two
H. Ramirez
Ian Desmond
Alexei Ramirez
Jose Reyes
Ramirez obviously tops the second tier, then, and he’s followed by three names that you’ll probably vary on in terms of how much you like them. Desmond remains the most likely bet for 20-20 per-600 numbers and the underlying statistics suggest a batting average rise could be coming, while Reyes is always a top play when healthy, which he is for the time being. Alexei Ramirez is the most interesting name, as he’s been the number two player at the position so far and projects to keep on producing, just at a lesser level. Given the risks associated with the next tier, he slots in here for now.
Tier Three
Elvis Andrus
Ben Zobrist
Starlin Castro
Jimmy Rollins
Dee Gordon
Jean Segura
This tier is a nice reminder of how mixed a bag the spot can be. Gordon’s projections aren’t great beyond the steals but they don’t fully account for the change in his discipline profile so far, and I’d personally bet he steals another 30. Andrus and Segura, too, are good bets for another 20 steals. Castro and Rollins present a lower stolen base upside but a better balance with power, and Zobrist does a little bit of everything, making him the easiest to plug in (he’s multi-position eligible, too) but tough to rely on for anything beyond what has now been established as his standard.
Tier Four
Jed Lowrie
Jhonny Peralta
J.J. Hardy
Andrelton Simmons
Asdrubal Cabrera
Jonathan Villar
Everth Cabrera
Xander Bogaerts
This becomes kind of a specialist category, offering similar profiles to the players in tier three but with lower upsides and greater risk. Lowrie, Peralta, Hardy and Asdrubal Cabrera bring pop, Everth Cabrera and Villar bring steals, and Simmons offers a bit of each, with projections remaining bullish despite a slow start at the dish. Oh, and a prediction: Hardy, who owns an 11 percent career HR/FB rate but has zero home runs on 58 fly balls, will eventually homer.
Tier Five
Erick Aybar
Brad Miller
Alcides Escobar
Stephen Drew
Chris Owings
Can we trust Escobar at this point? Will Drew have anything left? Is Owings going to continue to get the requisite playing time for a prorated 12-15? Will Brad Miller get it together in time to avoid demotion? Some of you will have no choice but to hope on questions like these, and that’s completely fine, but you’re just splitting hairs based on how you evaluate each profile. Bogaerts and Aybar, however, are close to the fourth tier, with the former still looking like a 20-home run bat and the latter being the safest (and most boring) fantasy player of the last three seasons and the last six if you ignore his unlikely 2011 breakout.
Tier Six
Derek Jeter
Yunel Escobar
Brandon Crawford
Yangervis Solarte
Jordy Mercer
Rafael Furcal
Adeiny Hechavarria
Slim pickings here, enough so that I’ve kept Furcal on the DL for chunks of the season in a really deep league hoping that he’s eventually used. Jeter probably also has one hot streak left in him, if you can time it right, because it wouldn’t be a Jeter final season without him tricking Yankees fans into thinking he could go another year.
The table below shows the players listed here with their rank to date and their Steamer Rest of Season projections:
| Player | Preseason Rank | Tier | Rank To Date | AVG | R | RBI | HR | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.305 | 57 | 63 | 19 | 2 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.274 | 45 | 48 | 13 | 9 |
| Ian Desmond | 6 | 2 | 9 | 0.264 | 45 | 46 | 12 | 10 |
| Jose Reyes | 5 | 2 | 10 | 0.282 | 49 | 34 | 6 | 15 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0.273 | 43 | 40 | 7 | 12 |
| Ben Zobrist | 10 | 3 | 22 | 0.263 | 39 | 34 | 7 | 5 |
| Elvis Andrus | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0.273 | 51 | 36 | 4 | 21 |
| Jean Segura | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0.276 | 44 | 36 | 6 | 20 |
| Starlin Castro | 8 | 3 | 13 | 0.276 | 46 | 39 | 8 | 7 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 18 | 3 | 8 | 0.239 | 50 | 37 | 9 | 13 |
| Dee Gordon | 34 | 3 | 3 | 0.254 | 27 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
| Jed Lowrie | 17 | 4 | 17 | 0.260 | 41 | 38 | 8 | 1 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 22 | 4 | 14 | 0.252 | 33 | 37 | 8 | 2 |
| J.J. Hardy | 14 | 4 | 25 | 0.258 | 45 | 45 | 12 | 1 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 13 | 4 | 27 | 0.265 | 43 | 39 | 8 | 6 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 15 | 4 | 18 | 0.256 | 42 | 40 | 9 | 6 |
| Everth Cabrera | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0.252 | 46 | 31 | 4 | 27 |
| Jonathan Villar | 20 | 4 | 21 | 0.230 | 43 | 33 | 7 | 24 |
| Erick Aybar | 16 | 5 | 5 | 0.274 | 43 | 37 | 5 | 10 |
| Alcides Escobar | 19 | 5 | 6 | 0.259 | 41 | 34 | 3 | 16 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 12 | 5 | 16 | 0.267 | 45 | 43 | 9 | 4 |
| Chris Owings | 36 | 5 | 23 | 0.264 | 32 | 35 | 6 | 8 |
| Mike Aviles | 35 | 5 | 15 | 0.253 | 22 | 22 | 4 | 5 |
| Stephen Drew | 23 | 5 | n/r | 0.240 | 22 | 20 | 4 | 2 |
| Brad Miller | 9 | 5 | 34 | 0.255 | 48 | 37 | 9 | 8 |
| Derek Jeter | 21 | 6 | 29 | 0.276 | 40 | 28 | 4 | 4 |
| Zack Cozart | 24 | 6 | 33 | 0.246 | 39 | 36 | 8 | 2 |
| Yunel Escobar | 27 | 6 | 31 | 0.253 | 38 | 33 | 5 | 3 |
| Rafael Furcal | n/r | 6 | n/r | 0.264 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 |
| Brandon Crawford | 29 | 6 | 19 | 0.242 | 33 | 33 | 6 | 3 |
| Yangervis Solarte | n/r | 6 | 11 | 0.264 | 40 | 39 | 7 | 2 |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 31 | 6 | 26 | 0.247 | 33 | 32 | 3 | 7 |
Blake Murphy is a freelance sportswriter based out of Toronto. Formerly of the Score, he's the managing editor at Raptors Republic and frequently pops up at Sportsnet, Vice, and around here. Follow him on Twitter @BlakeMurphyODC.
Has Desmond just been unlucky thus far this season? The homers have been there, but he’s batting a pretty brutal .226
.237 BABIP over the last month.
16.7% IFFB rate this year. Not all bad BABIPs are bad luck.
I don’t follow why Bogaerts is so low. Jed Lowrie, for example, has a worse preseason ranking, worse season-to-date performance, and worse Steamer projections, yet is listed nine spots ahead of Bogaerts.
Xander was meant to be a tier higher, I messed up.
I would actually take Bogaerts over everyone in his current tier (4) and the one above him (3). Even with a rough first 2 weeks of his age 21 season he’s at 300/391/443 with a 371 wOBA/134 wRC+, both good for second among SS (and would have been second last year as well). I know it’s a small sample, but he looks like a future superstar.
He doesn’t have elite power and also doesn’t steal bases. He’s basically Zobrist, minus 7-10 SB. In the vast majority of fantasy leagues, Bogaerts has much more value to the Red Sox than to a fantasy team.
He’s better than present day Zobrist though, in my opinion. If you think he’s putting up numbers like 2009, 2011, and 2012 again, I think you’re going to be disappointed.
I also think he’ll probably outperform Zobrist ROS by wOBA. But Zobrist does more in fantasy categories, namely SB.
Bogaerts’ fantasy value will likely never match his value for the Red Sox, unless his power develops into the Tulo level.
Seriously… Xander is the third best shortstop in the game right now.
What a joke of a ranking.
I don’t know about you all, but I’d take Xander RoS over everyone on Tier 3 and Tier 4 – if people in your league are this low on him, go steal him from them for nothing and then watch him outperform guys like Castro, Segura and Zobrist (unless you only need steals, in which case Segura, Gordon and Andrus will do better).
He’s hitting in the #2 spot with a .390 OBP, avg and the power is starting to show up, he went oppo-poppo last night to right center.
Ya, Xander was meant to be a tier higher, I messed up.
Yeah I think a lot of people agree with you and Mr. Dingbat. Even in AVG leagues, he’s batting .300 now. ZiPs has him at .284 with 14 homers on the season.
It does depend on your team construction. In my H2H league with OBP, I punt steals and so guys like Andrus are basically worthless to me. If you’re in a Rotisserie league with AVG, then Andrus is on par with Bogaerts.
I was lucky enough to grab him off of waivers in my 10-team, OPS league after Brad Miller turned into crap. I like that he supported my post by homering for the second game in a row tonight.
I’d easily bet the over on a ROS projection of 24 steals for Gordon.
> Even if you love Hanley Ramirez, Tulowitzki projects to beat him handedly in every category except stolen bases for the rest of the season
Handedly? Like beat him using his hands? Tulo would definitely get injured by doing that.
“Handedly” = with ease. Non-standard, I guess.
The word you’re looking for is “handily.”
Well, kinda. Handedly is now a generally accepted synonym for handily, and since handily has a flexible definition, I go with the other.
Definitely non-standard, at best.
Since it means so much to everyone, I will change it.
welp, I was late.
“projects to beat him right-handedly”, since that’s how they both bat.
I think you could even say…he is projected to beat him Hanley.
I’ll just go sit down now.
Think you’re underrating Aybar a bit here. He’s cut his K% to a career low and is working of a 286 BABIP so there’s actually room for BA improvement. Angels are a better team than in the past too so his counting stats should be decent. Not sexy but not quite Tier 5…
I’m trying to figure out JJ Hardy’s lack of power this year. He carries a .305 BA to go along with a .355 BABIP, so he’s due for regression there. There’s also reason for concern with his decrease in BB% and increase in K%, plus he’s swinging at more pitches out of the zone. Also his line drive is way over his career mark.
I don’t know how much this affects anything, but seeing him on TV his batting stance looks completely different. He has his hands way lower than one would in a normal batting stance.
Tulo projects to beat Hanley handedly? Like with his hands?
Brutal joke. Take a lap
Looking at Zobrist’s YTD numbers, ROS numbers, he just seems so very…meh. Definitely a better real-life play than fantasy play. I would take nearly all of the next 10-12 guys listed behind him.
I agree, a good portion of Zobrist’s value comes from base running and defense, and although he is listed at both MI and OF in Yahoo, he is a weak fantasy play at OF and not much better this year at MI. I’m a Rays fan, but I don’t own any of their batters in fantasy.
What would you need to see from Solarte before moving him up a tier?
He seems to be a wildcard, no?
I like that his K% is low enough to keep the AVG respectable, and he should be good for a handful of HR (though I’m less optimistic than Steamer). It’s the playing time (say they acquire infield help) that’s a bit of a concern.
Solarte has the second highest WAR on the Yankees, 5th highest offense among qualified 3B, 14th highest defense (middle of the pack), and 21st highest base running (near bottom).
You think NY might make a mid-season trade to upgrade base running? I know anything is possible (Sandoval?), but do you think it is probable if Solarte continues hitting like he has?
This is just a technicality, but Solarte is 100% in fielding at SS – he doesn’t really play that position too much though.
No no, I don’t think the Yankees would upgrade FOR base running, one was a comment on his overall value (which they may or may not see as sustainable), the other about his fantasy value.
This might be a bit of a stretch, but is there any chance Josh Harrison might gain shortstop eligibility after Polanco is called up? Shortstop has been a black hole for the Pirates all year and Harrison has shown decent improvement offensively this year.
If it happens, he’d slide in near the bottom of tier five, correct?
As you can probably surmise, I’m desperate. I banked on Miller and now have Owings. With a short bench, I could really use a guy with multiple eligible positions, including SS.
Yeah, he’d be a Tier 5 guy but not a bad play if you’re desperate, average is fairly safe, the HR/SB is there just unspectacular.
14 team league and I’m thinking of dropping Yunel for Brad Miller. Franklin was demoted today, but do u see Miller platooning with Bloomquist?
Man, this position is almost like catcher. I’m chilling with Asdrubal in my home league and what does he give up ROS to Ian Desmond’ s projections – .008 – 3 R – 6 RBI – 3 HR – 4 SB over the next 4 months.
It’s Tulo … and everyone else.
Surprised to see you rank Evereth Cabrera so low, he seems to be turning it on at the plate more lately and I would put him ahead of Lowrie for sure.
Where would Wilmer Flores fall on this list? He’s gained SS eligibility in most leagues finally (despite Collins being terrified of benching Tejeda)
Xander Bogaerts is making the case to move into the second tier by homering tonight.
Just moved Khris Davis and Sean Doolittle for Desmond and Cingrani in my dynasty league(league replaces HR with (R+RBI-HR)and S with FIP stats. Thoughts?
Bogaerts seems to be too low. Especially considering you seperated the fourth tier from he third because of a lesser upside. I think Xander has the highest upside of them all..