2014 Second Base Tier Rankings: May
We’re a month through the season, and fantasy owners are already jumping to huge conclusions regarding the 2014 season. These tiered rankings attempt to capture the production from the first month of the season, moving some players up and down where I felt it was necessary, but largely, I attempted to refrain from getting too caught up in the ebbs and flows of single-month performance. There are five months remaining in the 2014 season. Lots will change, and I didn’t want to make the tiered rankings a simple “who is performing well right now,” as that’s not overly useful.
Anyway, here we go.
TIER ONE
At first glance, Jason Kipnis doesn’t fit atop the second base tiered rankings. He’s currently rehabbing an abdomen injury and should be out the next few weeks. He’s also hitting .234/.354/.394 and barely a top-20 player at the position thus far in 2014. However, I expect Kipnis to bounce back strongly whenever he returns to the everyday lineup. His BABIP is a career-low .250 (a career low for any level, majors or minors) and his plate discipline doesn’t present any warning signs. In fact, the 27-year-old is has more walks than strikeouts to this point in the season. If I’m worried about anything, I’m worried he may not run much when he returns due to the abdomen injury. That would impact his overall fantasy value, as he’s never going to be an elite source of home runs. Consider this ranking a huge buy on the fact that his batting average will return and he’s still practicing good habits at the plate. The numbers should, hopefully, follow.
As far as Robinson Cano is concerned, I need to see more than a single month of a sub-.100 ISO before I subscribe to the fact that he’ll experience a complete power outage in Seattle. It is beginning to look as if many fantasy owners’ concerns about Cano’s move to Seattle may have been justified, though.
TIER TWO
I wanted to demote Dustin Pedroia to the third tier quite badly — and if I’m a fantasy owner, I’m not even considering “buying low” on him at the moment — but there’s too much track record to bump too significantly because of a lesser-than-expected month of April. Last year and even prior to the season, I mentioned Pedroia needed to reverse his ground-ball trends from a season ago. He put the baseball on the ground 50.4% of the time in 2013, but the concerns were somewhat ameliorated because he played through injury. Unfortunately, the ground-ball numbers have gotten worse, which has led to an even more-dramatic power decrease. His ground-ball rate is up to 52.1% and his ISO has plummeted to .107, which is a career low since FanGraphs began collecting such data in 2006.
Pedroia needs to be elite in almost every category to make up for a severe lack of power. Right now, that’s not happening. The stolen base and RBI numbers aren’t there, and his batting average isn’t anything special at .275. He’s currently the 15th-ranked second baseman, and I can envision an uncomfortable scenario in which Pedroia fails to break the top-10 by the end of the season. Again, there’s track record here, so I don’t want to sound the alarms too loudly. I’m just not going anywhere near the 30-year-old veteran.
TIER THREE
Matt Carpenter
Anthony Rendon
Brian Dozier
Jose Altuve
Ben Zobrist
Chase Utley
This is perhaps the most-interesting tier because it includes two second basemen who could be burgeoning fantasy studs this season: Anthony Rendon and Brian Dozier.
I’ve been all over Anthony Rendon throughout the winter and into the first month of the season. He should hit for a high average and threaten for 20 homers, all while benefiting from a pretty good Nationals offense. Rendon currently ranks fifth in runs scored among second basemen, fourth in homers, first in runs batted in, and seventh in batting average. The lack of stolen bases should keep him from being a legitimate contributor across the board in traditional rotisserie categories, but he should be an easy top-10 second baseman throughout the remainder of the year, with a chance to crack the top-five if the old-time studs don’t bounce back in a big way in the coming months.
I wrote about Brian Dozier a couple weeks ago: I noted the increased fly-ball rate, which has helped the unexpected power boost, and explained how batting leadoff for the Twins has allowed him to accumulate impressive stolen base and run totals. At the same time, I don’t think anyone saw Dozier running to this extent. The dude already has 11 stolen bases in 29 games, which puts him on pace for roughly 46 stolen bases over 600 plate appearances! In April, we were talking about Dozier as a potential 20/20 guy with ample runs scored. That may have been selling him lightly. Although I’m not buying the power numbers to continue, his plate discipline has drastically improved (a trend for Twins hitters this year) and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down on the basepaths. I really like Brian Dozier right now, and in OBP leagues, he’s even that much better.
For those worrying about Ben Zobrist and his lack of RBI thus far: he’s hitting .172/.219/.310 with runners in scoring position, including a .174 BABIP. Those numbers will improve, and the RBI numbers should respond accordingly.
TIER FOUR
Dee Gordon
Brandon Phillips
Jedd Gyorko
Martin Prado
Daniel Murphy
Howie Kendrick
Neil Walker
Last month, I noted Dee Gordon would begin to shoot up the tiered rankings if he proved he would get the vast majority of playing time for the Dodgers, and he’s already accumulated 124 plate appearances. His value is completely tied into his stolen bases and batting average. Still, he’s rocking a .417 BABIP, and when that comes back down to earth in the coming months, a little voice in the back of my mind wonders if he’ll be able to hold back Alex Guerrero, who is hitting .290/.371/.548 with three homers in very limited time in Triple-A.
Howie Kendrick is currently the 3rd-ranked fantasy second baseman. He’s been impressive across the board, swiping bases, hitting .303 with an improved walk rate, and posting respectable numbers in the counting categories. However, I’ve seen this dance before from Howie Kendrick, and I’m not buying. He did the same thing last season before moving back down the batting order and ultimately finishing as the 15th-ranked second baseman, despite a .297 batting average and double-digit homers. In previous tiers, I talked about being wary of moving guys too dramatically because of track record — unless something significant changed in their game or their position in the batting order — and the same applies to Kendrick. Too much track record of fantasy mediocrity exists for me to get too excited.
TIER FIVE
Jurickson Profar
Jed Lowrie
Aaron Hill
Omar Infante
Marcus Semien
Emilio Bonifacio
Kelly Johnson
Scooter Gennett
Derek Dietrich
Danny Espinosa
Alberto Callaspo
The early-season fantasy darling was Emilio Bonifacio. He’s the 6th-ranked second baseman, has positional flexibility, and is owned in 99% of ESPN leagues. However, few people are discussing the fact that his entire value is being bolstered by an incredible first couple weeks. If we exclude his first eight games, he’s hitting .230/.296/.284 with five stolen bases. In other words, he’s exactly who we thought he was. Pass.
Sometimes the injury excuse only masks a statistical decline brought on by aging, and I’m becoming convinced that’s the case with Aaron Hill. His power numbers have dropped for the second-consecutive season, his batting average continues to drop, and there’s almost no chance that he threatens for double-digit stolen bases. Even worse, his contact rate has dropped to a career-low 81.8%, which is a four-percent dropoff from his 2012 season. One can wistfully look back on the 2012 season and convince oneself that the skill still remains somewhere, and perhaps that’s true. As a fantasy owner, though, that’s not something on which I’m going to bet.
TIER SIX
Kolten Wong
Brian Roberts
Jonathan Schoop
DJ LeMahieu
Brandon Hicks
Leury Garcia
Dan Uggla
Dustin Ackley
Rickie Weeks
Alex Guerrero
Marco Scutaro
Darwin Barney
Eric Sogard
Fly-ball distance leaders this year include guys like Jose Abreu, Joey Votto, Mike Morse, Giancarlo Stanton, Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton … and Brandon Hicks?
The Giants’ middle infielder currently ranks seventh in fly-ball distance through the first month of the season. He’s shown some pop in the past down in the minors, hitting double-digit homers in each of the last three seasons. No one foresaw this, though. Still, he’s striking out 31.4% of the time and won’t have a high average, not to mention he’s a part-time player. If you’re really hurting in the middle infield and need some power numbers, though, there are worse things you can do than grab Hicks off the waiver wire and cross your fingers that he can hit another five-to-ten homers this year.
I mean, to be clear, there aren’t many worse things you can do than pickup Hicks to be a starting fantasy player, but there are a few.
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
Interesting how far you think Hill has fallen. Haven’t seen him play this year, so I can’t comment, but hoping your evaluation is a bit harsh!
His batted ball numbers are encouraging, with what would be a career high LD%, career low GB%, and a FB% in line with his best power years. Unfortunately, this is his batted ball distance by year with corresponding HR totals:
09 – 286.47 – 36
10 – 278.69 – 26
11 – 262.10 – 8
12 – 285.61 – 26
13 – 278.71 – 11
14 – 269.18 – 2 (so far)
So he’s getting the ball in the air, just without much authority, along with swinging and missing at a career high clip (6%> than career). Looks like a guy who might not be done quite yet, but is getting perilously close.
I think he is selling AHill too short. At the very least his projection floor is going to be somewhere near where Prado and Phillips are, he really should be in Tier 4.
Agreed. Even more so considering he’s ranked behind Profar.
If you were going to move Aaron Hill (and you should if you have 2B/3B covered by Arenado/Rendon/Dozier/Zimm, yes?) what type of pitcher and/or OF would you say is a fair return (12 team mixed H2H league with a 3 SP, no CI/MI lineup)?
Dozier has 1 2B and 8 HR after having 33 2B and 18 HR last year, and Trevor Plouffe has 14 2B and 1 HR after having 22 2B and 14 HR last year. Weird stuff going on to start the season in Minnesota.
Yeah amazing Minn. I love the concept of just declaring “we’re going to walk more” and apparently that makes Dozier double his walk rate without any improvement in his batted ball numbers. Just swing at less pitches in the zone and profit! Seems like anyone should try it if it’s that easy.
As an Orioles fan, I’d sure like to see more of our guys try the Minnesota approach.
It works! Make the pitchers throw more pitches, get the good starters out of the game earlier and wait for the pitch you really like. If the pitcher refuses to give in, take the walk.
Keep the conga line moving! It worked for the Red Sox last year.
Molitor is part of this.
I’m also bummed out by this Aaron Hill ranking and wish I had jumped on the Rendon bandwagon…
For us yahoo players, where would Brad Miller fit in here. I suspect it is much lower than where it was at the start of the season.
Why no love for Daniel Murphy?
4 category stud? Everything except homers, and those might still be on the way. Contract year, just had his first baby. 15 HRs I’m guessing.
I’d rather have Murphy than Pedrioa right now.
WHAT DOES DEE HAVE TO DO!
Any chance Hicks out earns Semien?
I’m buying Neil Walker to have a career year. BABIP of .250 (career .309) and yet still has been quite productive and looks GOOD at the plate. He along with Pedro Alvarez has cut down on his career K% by a significant amount. He hasn’t traded walks or power to do so either.
The Pirates in general but specfically Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez have been smited (smote?) by the BABIP gods so far in 2014. Buy em up!
Emilio Bonifacio 2014
vs Pirates (6 games): 30 AB 16 hits, 3 doubles, 7 steals .533/.563/.633 1.196 OPS
vs rest of MLB (21 games): 82 AB 20 hits, 4 doubles, 3 steals .244/.308/.293 .601 OPS
Why so bearish on Lowrie? Was healthy all last year, and having a great start to the season this year.
I’ve been banging the Lowrie drum for a while — guy’s get the second-highest wOBA for both 2Bs and SSs (he has eligibility for both in Yahoo) with seemingly neutral luck so far. He’s better in an OBP league and won’t give you much in the way of steals, but hard to knock his production from either slot.
Can’t complain, though — got the guy for a pittance in our auction.
I strapped myself to the Ackley bandwagon after spring training (I was the only rider I believe) and now I’m pondering dropping him for E. Escobar. Thoughts?
What tier would La Stella go if he were to get the call? Thanks.
Below Gennett in tier 5 IMO
Where is Profar if he’s playing average ball right now?
Why is it so hard to trade for a 2B…. UGH I drafted Kelton Wong and that flopped.
And now I am running with Semien. I’ve tried flipping Teheran for Kinsler, Pedroia, and Rendon with no traction. Man when did 2B become such a precious commodity….
Don’t panic; hang on to Teharan, he’s a good one.
Same reason they went so high in drafts this year – a decent one is hard to find.
Same in my league. I was lucky to draft Utley late. Just traded Santana/Beltran for Prado/Choo.
What if Derek Dietrich is actually kinda good? Much improved approach over last year with a nice BB%, a significantly reduced K%, and an o-swing% half of last year (though his overall contact numbers still leave something to be desired). His LD% and HR/FB% are even improved over strong numbers from last year. If he had enough ABs to qualify, his wOBA and wRC+ would both be 4th among 2B. I know they are using him mostly as the LHB part of a platoon, but he didn’t have a terrible platoon split in the minors.
He is good, he just doesnt get the guaranteed ABs
It’d be interesting to see what Pedroia’s groundball and ISO peripheral stats are since returning from his wrist injury on April 16th. An injury which he played through for a week which caused his average to plummet.
Since returning April 16, he’s had 8 doubles and 1 grand slam and hitting close to .300 with an OBP around .395.
I don’t see any reason to panic with him.
Agreed. Pedroia has consistently been a slow starter, his power usually doesn’t come until June and then he mashes for July-August. The narrative says the California kid dislikes the raw April Boston weather.
In my statistics league (NL only-13 teams) where the only hitting stat we use is Runs Created, Brandon Hicks has a 5.5 RC a game. This gives him value as it is above my team average of 4.4 RC right now. He hits the snot out of fastballs up and pretty much swings and misses everything down with movement-curves, sliders, etc.
Cano’s FB distance this year is 274, in 2013 291. It ain’t just Seattle’s park. Kinsler’s BB& and ISO continues to fall (as he gets older, as is Cano). Not sure how the analysis of them justifies so much on rep when underlying statistics and aging curves suggest genuine decline… would be interested to know your process, as I just don’t see weighting past performance so much in light of those underlying factors, but know I may be missing something.
I am a huge Brian Dozier seller. Dude is not stealing 45 bags, not hitting 20 HR. SELL
Have him in an OPS league and holding Dozier like grim death. No he won’t steal 45, but he could make a run at 30. I will take the over on 20hr though. He hit 18 last year and has 8 so far this year. Even with a HR/FB% regression, he has 5 months to hit 12 bombs…
If he continues walking like a madman, his runs scored total will continue to be ludicrous as well.
I’m taking the over on 20 HR’s as well….since changing his swing at the end of May last year, Dozier has 26 HR’s in just 135 games….a 31 homer pace over 162.
His current pace is obviously unsustainable (as is his 20% HR/FB rate)…..but everything since last June points to him being a very legit 20-25 HR guy now.
…and with the improved walk rate (he also had a 9.4% walk rate post May last year)….and increased speed on the basepaths…..we could be looking at a guy that will be a second, or maybe even first, tier 2B by seasons end.
Howie Kendrick did NOT do the same thing last year. He’s never stolen this many bases in a month before, and I don’t think he’s ever posted a 9.2% BB% in a month before. Also, he didn’t just peter out last year – he had a bad July and then got injured and missed most of the last 2 months.
I wish I knew before the season: Dozier is working with Paul Molitor, a brilliant baserunner in his day. I’ll pay for the steals here. And the OBP massages the mediocre average, and keeps Dozier batting first. Yeah, he could hit .230 and the pop could really tank at any time. But I am very comfortable putting a strong value on Dozier, even if we started from scratch right this second. Steals are down leaguewide, too. He’s legit.
The other thing with Dozier – his breakout is a year old now. This isn’t 4-6 weeks of goodness. How much proof do some people need?
No love for LeMahieu. I haz a sad. Hitter-friendly park, he has legit 20 SB potential with decent average, and thanks to his speed he’s always had a higher-than-average BABIP. Absolutely no power whatsoever, but if you’re looking for a cheap source of SBs from your middle infield spot, I still think you could do worse than LeMahieu.
I understand the unspoken purpose of tiered position rankings is to link a post to as many player profiles as possible, improving SEO and maybe scoring a few curiosity hits. And that it is not surprising nor necessarily bad that the analysis, such that it is analysis, is so thin and off the cuff. This is maybe a dreaded post, done because it must be done, and you all have to cast lots to determine which unlucky FanGraphs writer is stuck writing it. Maybe.
That said, this is regularly the least useful and most frustratingly reductionist article posted on RotoGraphs.
First, can we lose the tiers? In what way in which fantasy league is this ultra-subjective form or organization useful?
As for, well, Howie Kendrick, allow me to offer a much more useful analysis of my fantasy value.
I ranked 15th in 2013 because among that 15, I had the third fewest plate appearances–just two more than Chase Utley. But unlike Utley, I have no history of severe recurring injuries. Were my fantasy total prorated to 600 at bats, the resulting 69 runs, 16 HRs, 68 runs, and 8 SBs with a .297 average, would compare favorably to Ben Zobrist. Zobrist ranked about 11 in mixed leagues in 2013.
This is important to note, because when a fantasy player is injured, the owner is not forced to play a non-active player but instead may find a replacement on the waiver wire (in most leagues.) So my real value is my at-bats plus the value of whoever you can replace me with when I am injured.
So it’s not honest to say I was the 15th ranked fantasy second baseman. It’s much more honest to say my raw stats were ranked 15th among all players that qualify as second basemen (including those most likely played as shortstops because of the relative lack of talent at that position), but given the small difference between my production + the production of my replacement, that I, Howie Kendrick, am perhaps the perfect fantasy baseball second baseman. Not great. Rarely Bad. And cheap cheap cheap.
The dozen or so good not great fantasy second basemen are collectively an awful strong argument against any kind of position scarcity, and therefore an argument against any spending beyond the minimum to fill the second base position. There are meaningfully two tiers if you must divide us that way, and spending capital to determine which among that second tier you want is bad fantasy baseball.
So call me mediocre if you will, J.P., but my owners share a different descriptor of my contributions: Championship Caliber. I, Howie Kendrick, am the type of player savvy owners buy for one dollar or select in the final few rounds, long after inferior owners have reached for Pedroia or Lawrie or Phillips.