The Daily Grind: 5-5-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

1. Factor Grid Under Renovation
2. DFS for today
3. Tuesday Plays
4. Table

1. Renovations to Factor Grid

As I mentioned yesterday, the park factors in the Factor Grid were halved by FanGraphs and I did not double them. For now, make the mental adjustment. I will have an updated grid within the next two days – as soon as time allows.

2. DFS Stacks

It’s all late today.

With limited offensive options today, the Cardinals lefty stack isn’t a terrible gamble against Aaron Harang. A.A. Ron has shown suspect control in his last couple outings after a dominating start to the season.

J.A. Happ versus Kyle Kendrick reunites two mediocre starters developed by the Phillies system. And it’s one of the three “green” games according to me.

Jeff Locke was the most unlikely All-Star last season. The Giants aren’t an offensive juggernaut, nor is Pittsburgh a good place for hitting, yet San Francisco might be worth a look.

The Tigaryens will face Jarred Cosart. Dracarys. In case it’s unclear, I’m talking about the Detroit Tigers smashing Cosart.

I’m a fan of the Rangers stack versus Jordan Lyles. The Rangers are guests of Colorado and they have a few lefties who can mash a contact oriented pitcher like Lyles. Don’t mind the 2.70 ERA, ZiPS and Steamer project anything from a 4.58 to 5.17 ERA going forward.

I don’t like young pitchers visiting Colorado, hence I worry about Martin Perez tonight. It could be a slugfest in Denver.

Michael Bolsinger is somebody who isn’t terribly good. He’s only imploded in one of four outings.

3. Tomorrow’s Tango

Pitchers to Start: Unless Jesse Chavez is still floating around your waiver wire, tomorrow is short on safe streaming options.

Josh Tomlin might be viable if you like guys without any upside and plenty of downside. Not a good beginning to the “to start” batch.

Drew Hutchison is decidedly better than Tomlin, but I worry about non-elite righties in Philadelphia. This is more of a high risk-high reward play. He could allow three bombs in four innings or strike out 12 batters over seven frames. Or both.

Charlie Morton won’t provide strikeouts, but he can keep the ball on the ground and his team in the game. The Pirates are opposed by Tim Hudson, who is a veteranier version of Morton.

Gavin Floyd returns to action tomorrow. I’m not saying to start him – I’m just pointing out a possible stash option.

Bartolo Colon’s latest disaster was in Colorado. Look for a much more effective Colon in Miami.

Pitchers to Exploit: Robbie Ray was the main return for Doug Fister this offseason. I don’t think he’s very good based on his statistics. If I get a chance, I’ll pay close attention to his start. On the other side of the bump is Brett Oberholtzer. He’s turned pumpkin after making several of my stacks look bad.

Felix Doubront is broken. So is the Bruce-less Cincinnati offense. Who is more broken?

Robbie Ross is exactly the sort of pitcher I expect to struggle in Colorado. Go ahead and chase Juan Nicasio too.

Even Cubs can be stacked against Hector Noesi.

I’ve liked Samuel Deduno as a possible reliever for awhile, but now he’s back in the rotation. It should be a short start even if it’s effective.

Hitters (power): Seth Smith draws a hittable pitcher in Jeremy Guthrie.

The Royals may let Danny Valencia and Justin Maxwell out of the barn against lefty Robbie Erlin. Tomorrow is very heavy in Robbie’s, weird.

Generally speaking, all Cubs hitter not named Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, or Emilio Bonifacio is widely available. Go ahead and use them against Noesi.

Alejandro De Aza is a decent power-speed play tomorrow. He’ll face Edwin Jackson.

The bafflingly extended Chris Johnson should start against lefty Tyler Lyons.

Power righties George Springer, Chris Carter, and Jesus Guzman are worthy of consideration against Ray.

Lonnie Chisenhall and David Murphy will go to work against Samuel Deduno.

Hitters (speed): Rajai Davis is a go with the platoon advantage. Davis is go.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Washington D.C. and Pittsburgh could see some sprinkles. They’ll play, but it might affect the offense. The early guess is 20 mph gusts to right field in Oakland. Wind reports are so tricky because many stadiums create a swirling affect.

The Link. Most of today’s games aren’t very favorable for hitters. Cool weather has pushed most of the neutral stadiums closer to bad plays too.

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