Archive for December, 2013

Justin Masterson with a Little Help from His Friends

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Justin Masterson. The Indians are rumored to be listening to offers on both he and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, and either of those moves could have a dramatic effect on Masterson’s fantasy value.

Fantasy owners would likely have their own uncertainty of Masterson whether or not he was in trade rumors. Zach Sanders listed him as the 28th-best starting pitcher last season worth $11 in standard formats, but Masterson showed a big spike in his strikeout rate over previous seasons and has a reputation as having extreme platoon splits.

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Julio Teheran Breaks Out

Atlanta Braves pitcher Julio Teheran finally lived up to his promise last season. The 22-year-old had been knocking at the door for two years, but couldn’t seem to fall into a full-time role. When he finally got his chance, Teheran didn’t disappoint. In his first season as a starter, Teheran tossed 185.2 innings with a 3.20 ERA, and a 3.69 FIP. There were some big questions about Teheran’s ability to pitch in the majors, particularly after 2012 saw him post a +5.00 ERA in Triple-A. One of those issues was still present last season, and is really the only reason to be concerned about Teheran moving forward.

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Roberto Hernandez Heads to the Land of Cheesesteak

No, not the Roberto Hernandez who saved 326 games and spent his career in the bullpen, silly. It’s the Roberto Hernandez who became the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona of course! After a disappointing season with the Rays that saw him post a 4.89 ERA and eventually get banished from the starting rotation, Hernandez signed a one-year deal with the Phillies yesterday. Twice Hernandez has earned positive value in fantasy leagues, while he has torpedoed the ratios of many a team in all other seasons. Now he moves into the National League, where pitchers typically see a bump in value.

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Valuing Your Last Roster Spot

Fellow RotoGrapher Chad Young recently posted on the value of playing time as it pertains to weekly vs. daily leagues. The first commenter, Kris, asked a great (and difficult) question – “what is a roster spot worth?” Basically, how many dollars did an owner forgo to roster, say, Oscar Taveras last season?

The easy answer is, it depends. While I could sit here, reconstruct a standard league, make a handful of assumptions, and come away with a rough estimate as to the value of the last roster spot, such an analysis would miss too many factors. Instead, I will take the rest of this article to highlight some of the things you’ll want to consider when deciding how to deploy your final roster slot.

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Taijuan Walker Is Inexperienced and Who Cares

Taijuan Walker has graced the top tier of many prospect lists for some time now, and for good reason. The former first rounder from 2010 shot through the Seattle Mariner minor league system, displaying a great fastball, a good cutter, and what have been called work-in-progress tertiary pitches in his curve and change.

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Someone Like Ryu

On top of sharing the present author’s nationality, Hyun-Jin Ryu is noteworthy for his strong rookie season. After posting seven spectacular seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization, Ryu was signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in early December of last year. As the first South Korean player to be posted, some wondered how much the difference in competitive talent would hurt Ryu. One season doesn’t make a career, however it seems as though Ryu is the real deal.
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Gavin Floyd Heads South to Atlanta

After making just five starts in 2013, Gavin Floyd landed on the disabled list and headed in for Tommy John surgery which, obviously, put him on the shelf for the duration of the season and put his estimated return time to somewhere around mid-May of 2014. Not really the way you want to head into your walk year, is it? But the surgery was successful and all reports on his recovery have been positive. No one is jumping up and down and raving about his newly reconstructed arm, but the reports have been good. As such, Floyd was given a one-year, $4M contract by the Atlanta Braves and he will now finish his rehab under their watch. How things shake out in May, though, will be taken as they come. Read the rest of this entry »


Yordano Ventura, Thrower of Flames

If chicks dig the long ball, then scouts dig the high-octane fastball. And 22-year-old Royals right-hander Yordano Ventura has quite an electric one. His 97.5 average fastball velocity was the highest among every single pitcher who made a start in 2013. Even cooler, his fastball touched 101.9 mph according to PITCHf/x. It’s not outrageous for a reliever to throw that hard, as nine of them have since PITCHf/x has delivered reliable data. But starting pitchers simply don’t. Ventura officially unleashed the fastest fastball in the PITCHf/x era.

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Grant Balfour in Baltimore

Grant Balfour has never called a hitter-friendly stadium home. He’s about to, since he signed a two-year deal to ostensibly be the closer in Baltimore. Will it matter?

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Cliff Lee: Still Studly

I have a H2H league with my old college teammates that’s a little bit…funky. It’s a 6×6 league that includes K/BB with the usual five pitcher categories. We also roster about 1.5 times more pitchers than position players. In most leagues, it’s typical for owners to spend about 70 percent of their budget on position players. But for my league, the optimal split favors pitchers.

I ran my own models, used the tools available at Last Player Picked (currently defunct) and Baseball Prospectus and kept coming away with the same result – Cliff Lee was the most valuable player in the league with a suggested auction price in the upper $50’s. While I had my doubts about the valuation, I happily selected him for $34. According to Zach Sanders, he returned over $25 in normal leagues last season and I have every confidence that he blew away the $34 I paid for him in my league.

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