Today I will look at a few injury updates, notably Matt Kemp and Miguel Cabrera, and then look at hitters with past back injuries and the struggles they may experience next season.

• Miguel Cabrera “may” require surgery to repair his groin. (source)

“He has a groin [injury], they say Grade 2, Grade 3, which means there’s some tearing of fibers in that area,” Dombrowski said. “It was not going to heal with rest, we were assured of that.”
…
If Cabrera does have surgery, Dombrowski said, he’s expected to be fully recovered in time for Spring Training.

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James Paxton, Enny Romero, Danny Duffy, Derek Holland, David Price, Chris Sale, Brad Hand, Martin Perez, Francisco Liriano, Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Matt Moore, Ross Detwiler, Patrick Corbin, Kris Johnson, Hector Santiago, Tony Cingrani, and Cole Hamels. A distinguished group of twenty, is it not?

The above list constitutes all lefthanded MLB starting pitchers who averaged 91.5 mph or more on their fastballs in 2013. As you can see, it consists largely of two groups: good, established MLB starters and unproven but exciting young guys who only got a few starts in the majors during the past season. Almost none of these guys have neither exciting presents nor exciting futures, and thus, anyone who projects to join this relatively selective club merits a closer look. One such pitcher is Pirates southpaw prospect Joely Rodriguez.

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Yes you do. We all do. We all know who Paul Goldschmidt is, and if you don’t, then you have no business being involved in fantasy baseball, plain and simple. The only reason for the headline was for the pure enjoyment of a good play-on-words. In fact, choosing which pun to use for the title was the hardest part of writing this article. Goldschmidt Sandwich? You’ve Got Some Goldschmidt on Your Face? Goldschmidt Happens? I Drafted The Best First Baseman in Fantasy Baseball and Took a Big Goldschmidt on the Rest of My League? The options are endless and the debate over which one is funnier is probably more complex than the debate over which first baseman is the best in fantasy baseball. It’s tough to argue against Zach Sanders’ ranking of Chris Davis as number one thanks to his power output this year, but looking forward, I’ll take Goldschmidt over him every chance I get. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the more common pieces of advice you read about drafting in the first round of a fantasy baseball league is that you want to play it safe. “You can’t win it in the first round, but you could lose it”, they say. And Albert Pujols was the epitome of safety. From his rookie 2001 season through 2011, he was a near lock for a .300+ average, 100+ runs batted in and 35+ home runs. That is a long period of sustained elite performance. You pretty much knew what you were getting and what you were getting was a top of the line fantasy player. But oh has it gone downhill fast.

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Okay, so maybe Moss doesn’t only grow on the north side of things. That is what I get for learning my outdoors lessons from Hey Arnold! and never being a Boy Scout. Nature references aside, Brandon Moss has put up big numbers for the Oakland A’s and fantasy owners for two straight years. After bouncing around with the Red Sox, Pirates, and Phillies, Moss has finally found a home in Oakland as their primary first baseman.
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While they say that the only certainties in life are death and taxes, another truism we can all seem to bank on is that change is inevitable. Nothing stays the same and evolution is a daily part of our lives in virtually every aspect. How you react and adjust to that change is the key to your survival. You can remain stuck in your ways, fight against the current and struggle each and every day or you can roll with the punches, accept the need to adapt and thrive through change. Last season Adrian Gonzalez found himself at one of those evolutionary crossroads, made the conscious decision to change and adapt, and now fantasy owners are left wondering if drafting this “new and improved” version of the formerly heavy-hitting first baseman is going to be worth the price of admission moving forward. Read the rest of this entry »

OK, I’ll admit, the vast majority of people who owned this player didn’t start him at first base. Yet here we are, talking about Mike Napoli as fantasy’s 16th best first baseman according to Zach Sanders’ FVAR rankings. 16th best is still startable. Maybe as a 1B in deeper leagues, or maybe as a corner infielder in your regular 10 or 12-teamer. Regardless, while that’s not where people played him this year, first base is where we have to start thinking Napoli going forward. Playing with avascular necrosis in both hips (also known as “the injury that ruined Bo Jackson“), Napoli doesn’t figure to squat behind the plate anymore. But it’s not all bad — every cloud has silver linings.

One advantage to no longer being a full-time (or even part-time) catcher? The sheer volume of playing time. Just ask Victor Martinez. By plate appearances, 2013 was Napoli’s top year so far. He stepped up to the dish an impressive 578 times; 68 more than his previous career high set with the Angels in 2010. Of course, the driving factor was that Boston’s bearded righty didn’t catch a game for the first time since he broke into the big leagues. But less wear on the tires means more chances for Napoli to help fantasy owners in any of the counting stat categories.

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Remember when Mark Trumbo came up in 2011 and finished second in the Rookie of the Year balloting, thanks largely to things like “29 homers and 87 RBI”, and we all laughed because his .291 OBP made him seem like a one-dimensional slugger who had caveman skills and little else? It seemed he’d be further marginalized in 2012 when Albert Pujols arrived and Kendrys Morales returned, but after a laughable attempt to play third base, Trumbo found a home in the outfield, as well as getting 38 starts at first base and DH. He maintained the power, but increased the OBP to .317, helped by a walk rate that went from an atrocious 4.4% to a still-not-great 6.1%.

Headed into an age-27 season and bolstered by the trade of Morales as well as the health concerns of Pujols, Trumbo looked like he might be in for a big season, but whether you consider his year successful or not really depends on how you perceive such things. From a standard 5×5 fantasy point of view, it was a very good year. Trumbo hit 34 homers, scored 85 runs, and drove in 100 — career highs, all — more than enough to make up for a poor .234 batting average. Read the rest of this entry »

After an excellent partial season in 2011 and a strong follow-up in 2012, Allen Craig became a trendy sleeper who wasn’t, as his hype increased his cost in preseason drafts and made him a rather expensive target. Alas, he was a bit of a disappointment, as he suffered from a power outage and a foot injury cost him nearly all of September. All in all, he was just the 14th most valuable first baseman in fantasy leagues this season.

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Episode 75
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss a southpaw who enjoyed a rebound season and chatting about the first base crop.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 44 min of joyous analysis.

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