With Biogenesis dominating the news front, injury information again is a little scarce, but I was able to scape up a bit.
Pitchers returning from the DL
• Brandon McCarthy looks fine with his average sinker velocity consistent with his previous speeds.
We can now say, with confidence and the backing of legal proceedings and pronouncements, that Ryan Braun did steroids. Those in yearly leagues have all said their curses dropped him — a good percentage of them won’t dip back into that well again, choosing to hold a grudge, or to just avoid the insecurity. But in keeper and dynasty leagues, the opportunity for arbitrage is here. Ryan Braun is available, and in a particularly desperate way in some of those leagues. But what will he look like without the juice?
If you’ve been experiencing a lack of production from the second base position in recent weeks, you’re likely not alone. Over the last 30 days, second basemen across the league are only hitting .237/.293/.346 with a .282 wOBA. That’s 26 points below the overall league-average during the same stretch.
With that depressing statistic in mind, we delve into the tiered rankings. Keep in mind, as always, these tiered rankings don’t include every single eligible second baseman. It is based off the ESPN eligibility requirements, so guys like Kyle Seager (tier two) will not be included in these rankings.
Let’s do this.
On Saturday Blake Murphy updated something I looked into awhile back, which was hitters with a reverse platoon split. This reminded me of another unusual split I came across earlier this season. Despite the fact that Arizona has a the 4th most hitter-friendly basic park factor and is the 8th most homer-friendly home run park for right-handed hitters, right-hander Paul Goldschmidt has been better on the road in his career. During his call up season and first full season (2011-2012), Goldy had a .338 wOBA at home and .382 wOBA on the road. Some of that was a strikeout rate that was 3% lower on the road, but that alone isn’t enough to account for a 44 point difference in wOBA.
He has been basically as good at home and on the road this season, but he has still been slightly better on the road. This just seems so strange because the average basic park factor for his road games (weighted for the number of games he has played in each park) is 99.27, and the HR as R factor for his road games is 99.17. That’s compared to a 105 basic park factor and 105 HR as R factor at home in Arizona. In other words, Goldy has had conditions 6% more favorable at home in his career, yet his wOBA is significantly higher on the road.
Last Tuesday, I compared the average home run and fly ball distances for qualified hitters with last season. Of the 10 hitters who enjoyed the largest distance surges, 8 of them had also experienced an increased HR/FB rate. Today, I check in on the other side of the coin — those hitters whose distance has declined the most. Whether an injury is to blame or some other explanation is behind the drop, it’s a bad sign for a hitter’s power and HR/FB rate.
Welcome to another week of the Roto Riteup, which can help you pass the time before the return of Breaking Bad.
On today’s agenda:
1. BioGenesis suspensions announced today
2. David Wright’s out a month
3. Wil Myers progress report
Hard to believe we’re already into August…
• Well now look who is getting saves in Seattle. A few nights after Tom Wilhelmsen imploded in a non-save situation against the Boston Red Sox, Danny Farquhar earned save number two as (apparently) the Mariners’ new closer du jour. Farquhar has actually been quite impressive this year once you look past the abysmal 5.09 ERA; a “unlucky” .359 BABIP and 53% LOB% are what is keeping that number so far away from his sparkling 2.13 xFIP.
Episode 46
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor Brett Talley. We discuss a pair of injured catchers and a surprising demotion in Oakland.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)
Approximately 36 min of joyous analysis.
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Always, always, always know your scoring system. I know the other guys who write in this space have done a fantastic job breaking down some of Draftstreet’s unique scoring rubric (and where you want to chase), but this point can never can be repeated enough.
Example? I have a good friend who just started playing Draftstreet a few weeks ago. Certainly not new to the fantasy baseball scene, but just getting his feet wet in daily games. Friday night we had a GChat conversation that went something like this (cleaned up for a family-friendly audience!).
Look for the present author among the crowd in Detroit as the Tigers host the Chicago White Sox.
On today’s agenda:
1. David Wright to the disabled list
2. A rotation shakeup in Oakland
3. Ryan Ludwick to return next week
4. Kole Calhoun’s fast start
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