Archive for March, 2013

Eno Sarris’ 10 Bold Predictions For The 2013 Fantasy Season

It’s that time of year again! One quick caveat out of the way — these are bold predictions, meant to highlight interesting players in a pie-in-the-sky kind of way — and then we can start dreaming. I did okay with last year’s bold predictions, so let’s try it again:

1) Andrelton Simmons will be this year’s Jose Altuve.
Jose Altuve began last season as our 16th-ranked preseason consensus second baseman. He hit .290 with seven home runs and 33 stolen bases and ended the season as our 11th-ranked second baseman. This year Andrelton Simmons is our 16th-ranked preseason shortstop. It’s not actually that bold to predict him to join the top twelve shortstops, but hey, that’s how I get a couple right. Simmons has more power than Altuve, I like him for a similar batting average, and atop the Braves order, he might actually steal 25 bags.

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2013 Second Base Tier Rankings: Preseason

We released our consensus rankings earlier this month, but we enjoy going the extra mile and we place players into various tiers. It helps contextualize an individual player by grouping them with players of similar fantasy value. My personal rankings varied slightly from the consensus rankings, so they won’t be perfectly aligned. The differences shouldn’t be too dramatic, though.

Without further ado, here are the tiers:

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Brett Talley’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2013

We’re making bold predictions this week. My ten will be guys currently not being drafted as “starters” in ten-team mixed leagues that I think should and will be. In other words, I’ll be picking a guy going outside the top ten at each infield position, two guys going outside the top 50 in the outfield, and three guys going outside the top 60 starters. All ADP numbers are from ESPN.

1) Jonathan Lucroy, currently the 14th catcher being selected, will be a top ten catcher. Lucroy was well on his way to being a top ten catcher last season had he not missed two months in the middle of the year with a broken hand. Check out how he compared to other catchers with 300+ PA last year in the five roto categories on a per plate appearance basis:

Name

PA

HR

HR/PA

Rank

R

R/PA

Rank

Jonathan Lucroy

346

12

0.034682

14

46

0.132948

3

RBI

RBI/PA

Rank

SB

SB/PA

Rank

AVG

Rank

58

0.16763

2

4

0.011561

5

0.32

3

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Buying the Rick Porcello Hype

“Don’t trust the spring training numbers.” It’s a common phrase uttered by wise fantasy analysts. For many reasons, spring training stats are an unreliable gauge of a player’s talents. Despite the constant reminders that spring numbers don’t matter, countless articles will be written chronicling “player X” and his excellent spring. Rick Porcello has emerged as one of the more popular spring breakout candidates this year. Ninety-five percent of the time, it would be wise to laugh off these articles as small sample size fodder. But in the case of Porcello, there may actually be reason to buy into the hype.

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2013 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: Preseason

OMG, we’re a week away from BASEBALL that counts! You’ve seen the consensus starting pitcher rankings, questioned them and have been eagerly anticipating the tiers for a more detailed breakdown. Your wait has ended. It’s time to continue spurring comment arguments as I unveil the first edition of the American League starting pitcher tiers.

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Roto Riteup: March 25, 2013

Monday’s Roto Riteup was supposed to have a witty opening line. Supposed to.

On today’s agenda:
1. Daniel Bard’s downfall
2. Derek Jeter’s ankle
3. Ronny Cedeno and the Astros
4. Freddy Garcia, free agent

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Roto Riteup: March 24, 2013

We’re just one week away from the games that count!

On today’s agenda:

1. St. Louis Cardinals closer questions
2. Another Colorado Rockies starter injury
3. Joe Benson to Triple-A

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BAL Orioles Infield: Depth Chart Discussions

The Orioles were a middling offense last year, ranking in the middle of the pack in runs scored and combined wOBA. But they did hit the second-most home runs in the league. That power streak extended to the infield, where the Orioles boast some elite power options at first base, catcher and shortstop.

Add a heralded, young third baseman into the mix, and Baltimore has one of the more intriguing crops of infielders in the American League.

When analyzing the depth chart, second base raises the most obvious question mark in regards to playing time. Brian Roberts should break camp as the everyday option at second, but fantasy owners can reasonably expect him to lose plate appearances throughout the year — whether that’s due to injury or ineffectiveness. He’s 35 years old and has only played in 115 games in the past three seasons. And when he has been in the lineup, the Brian Roberts circa 2005-2009 has been nowhere in sight. In those last 115 games over three seasons, he’s only hit .244/.308/.648 .340 with seven home runs. That’s simply not useable at second base.

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Roto Riteup: March 23, 2013

This is prime drafting season now. Odds are by the time you read this, the author will be in a state of pure bliss: an Ottoneu auction draft.

On today’s agenda:
1. Adam Eaton’s injury
2. Jhoulys Chacin sidelined with back pain
3. Trevor Bauer and Scott Kazmir’s roles
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Nobody Cares About Your Scoresheet Team

It’s that great time of year again: Scoresheet draft review! And while I won’t make my last pick until Sunday at 15:51:46 — love that military time — that means I only have three more roster spots to fill after this is published.

After reading, you’ll know where I’ll be attacking to fill those last three spots.

So for those unaware, Scoresheet is in essence a baseball simulation fantasy league. It’s based on real-life stats. For instance, last season I thought Carl Pavano might be a good back-end rotation guy. Well, he missed almost the entire season, and my Triple-A replacement — whom shall remain nameless because the game dictates so — went something like 7-35. So while my team went 76-86 if I’m recalling correctly, I’d have done a lot better than Pavano and Felipe Paulino taking up 40% of my rotation. Read the rest of this entry »