2013 NL Starting Pitcher Tiers: June
Young starting pitchers continue to make their presence known this year. Since the last NL pitcher rankings, owners have seen Tyler Skaggs, Michael Wacha, Gerrit Cole and, soon, Zack Wheeler reach fantasy-relevance. And that’s just in the National League. Some of those players will play major roles on championship-winning teams this year. How should they be valued? Let’s turn to the rankings. This month, I’m using Iron Chefs for the tiers. So, please allow me to introduce a veritable pantheon of baseball giants.
Iron Chef Michael Symon
Clayton Kershaw
Adam Wainwright
Wainwright joins Kershaw in the elite tier this month. Wainwright can post a nice strikeout rate, and has refused to walk anyone this year. We’re now in June, and Wainwright is on pace for the seventh lowest walk rate since 1900. That’s pretty incredible. There’s no reason to worry about Kershaw. He’s as consistent as they come.
Iron Chef Masaharu Morimoto
Matt Harvey
Cliff Lee
Madison Bumgarner
Tier two gets a bit smaller this time around. Harvey deserves to be in this position based on how he’s performed this year. Slightly better control and a little more experience is the only thing that separates him from the other National League rookie phenoms. Lee and Bumgarner are good, and remarkably consistent. Tough to ask for much more from either of them.
Iron Chef Bobby Flay
Homer Bailey
Shelby Miller
Zack Greinke
Stephen Strasburg
Mat Latos
Jeff Samardzija
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Mike Minor
Admittedly, I had no idea Bailey was performing so well. It took a couple of seasons, but Bailey has finally lowered his walk rate, and increased his strikeout rate enough to be considered a near elite starter. Strictly based on stats, he should be in the second tier, but let’s see if the strikeout rate holds before moving him up too much. Miller is in a similar situation. The stats say he’s better than this tier, but it would be nice to see it a little longer. I haven’t been a big Ryu supporter all year, but it’s time to start buying into the performance. He’s outperformed the scouting reports thus far. Strasburg would be higher if health weren’t a question. Latos is consistently good, but rarely elite. Samardzija’s strikeouts make up for a slightly elevated walk rate. He’s still homer-prone, but Minor has limited walks and home runs better this season. He’s taken a big step forward this year.
Iron Chef Geoffrey Zakarian
Jordan Zimmermann
Matt Cain
Cole Hamels
Johnny Cueto
Lance Lynn
Gio Gonzalez
Ian Kennedy
A.J. Burnett
Patrick Corbin
Jose Fernandez
Kris Medlen
Andrew Cashner
Yovani Gallardo
Tony Cingrani
Matt Garza
The only thing missing from Zimmermann’s game is strikeouts. It could be a result of his approach on the mound, as he’s shown an ability to strikeout batters more in the past. It seems like he could be more interested in going deeper into games, as opposed to striking out hitters. Whatever he’s doing is working, so it’s hard to complain. Cain, Hamels and Gonzalez have all struggled more than expected, but you shouldn’t give up hope yet. Cain and Hamels are having home run issues, but have still maintained solid strikeout and walk rates. Gonzalez’s walk rate has gone backwards, and he’s not a top tier guy when he walks four hitters per nine innings.
Iron Chef Jose Garces
Kevin Slowey
Ricky Nolasco
Wandy Rodriguez
Josh Beckett
Scott Feldman
Michael Wacha
Francisco Liriano
Mike Leake
Marco Estrada
Dan Haren
Jon Niese
Paul Maholm
Tim Hudson
Julio Teheran
Ross Detwiler
Tim Lincecum
Gerrit Cole
Most of this tier is comprised of dependable, lower strikeout guys like Feldman, Hudson and Leake. Haren and Estrada have strong walk and strikeout rates, but have both been killed by homeruns. It could be that their stuff just isn’t good enough to fool major-league hitters right now, and not just bad luck. Jon Niese needs to get healthy before he moves any higher. Based on his numbers, he should be lower on this list.
Iron Chef Marc Forgione
Edwin Jackson
Jake Westbrook
Jhoulys Chacin
Tyler Chatwood
Jorge de la Rosa
Trevor Cahill
Eric Stults
Brandon McCarthy
Travis Wood
Bronson Arroyo
Wade Miley
Jacob Turner
Kyle Lohse
Jackson has a horrible strand rate, which has overshadowed his solid 3.39 FIP. He’ll get better. Chacin and de la Rosa have been surprising this year, but their home run luck will regress, and de la Rosa is a big injury risk. Cahill has gone backward, his strikeout rate is unacceptable and his walk rate is not great. That’s a bad combination. Stults does enough good things to be useful. It doesn’t hurt that he pitches in Petco.
Iron Chef Alex Guarnaschelli
Kyle Kendrick
Barry Zito
Jeff Locke
Dillon Gee
Shaun Marcum
This is the bottom of the barrel in shallower leagues. You probably don’t want to rely on these guys, though you might consider them for spot-starts. All can pitch effectively, but probably won’t over a long period, and lack upside.
*Alex Guarnaschelli is only down here because she hasn’t had enough time to establish herself yet. Let’s look at some pitchers who could still establish themselves this year for the final tier.
Zack Wheeler
Tyler Skaggs
Jameson Taillon
Keep an eye on those guys. They could still play a big role on their clubs this year.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Garza?
Nice work Chris, Ian Kennedy is doubled up …. where should he be? Cheers
Updated to include Garza and Liriano. Also made it so one Ian Kennedy was on the list.
Thanks for letting me know
R.I.P. Francisco Liriano… Enjoy your own tier in hell.
Kennedy is on here twice.
Michael Symon is your top tier? Clearly, Morimoto is THE Iron Chef. Bobby Flay should be somewhere in the minor leagues until he starts winning some battles. He can’t even win on his own show. I know, wins are an overrated stat, but…wait…whats this post about again?
Yeah, I would prefer more original (Japanese) Iron Chefs, fewer of the bastardized American version. And toally agreed on Morimoto. There are no American Iron Chefs without standing on the shoulders of their predecessor, period.
I love when Rotographs does the tiers. With that said, this tier is maybe the most absurd of the year (im rapping now).
Having Lance Lynn & Patrick Corbin in the 4th tier makes me question if you play fantasy or just watch baseball. However, having Jordan Zimmerman in the 4th tier?!?! That flat out punts the credability of this list.
Says the guy who makes absolutely no effort to back up his wild accusations.
Espn Fantasy Player Rater….check it out dude….very helpful for when you start playing fantasy baseball at somepoint
Zimmerman’s measly K’s… Corbin’s lack of track record… Lynn’s HR/FB a paltry 3.8%. Regression is coming for Lance and Patrick.
My only point in Head to Head is that K’s is one category. Just 1. Wins, ERA and Whip are 3. Im not even wasting my time discussing Zimmerman. But since Lynn became a starter last year what has suggested he has been anything but studly in those 3 categories. Also, he will throw in games of higher K numbers every now and then. He is backed by an outstanding offense and great defense.
Glanced at the article and rushed to my free agent list to search for Masaharu Morimoto.
All the top Japanese starters have already been snatched up in my league too.
I dunno if you’ve been Yovani or Garza lately–each of them hold about as much weight as Walter Frey’s word.
Meh, *seen
Now which Iron Chef would cook the best Frey pie? Also I think Zimmerman and Lynn need to move up a tier.
A top 5 fantasy starting pitcher in ALL of the majors, Jordan Zimmermann, is the 14th best pitcher in the NL. Fangraphs is trolling now.
These lists project their value the rest of the season, not their value up to this point.
What would suggest Zimmermann will regress ROS more than other pitchers?
Nothing.
Regression to the mean isn’t about all good players getting worse. It’s about all players, good and bad, “regressing” to what their expected performance was.
So a guy like J Zimm will probably do worse than he has been, while a guy like Matt Cain will do better than he has been.
These lists are about gauging RoS value going forward. That doesn’t mean we take the exact current season values and duplicate that list. It’s about predicting who will fall off their abnormal pace (Zimm) and who will pick things back up.
A 5.8 K/9 isn’t something to hang your hat on. .229 BABIP this year vs career mark of .284
This is fangraphs, don’t you guys look at numbers before hopping up and down about a ranking?
Oops, I forgot about Wins. Most important pitching stat there is.
The second best pitcher (Zimmerman) in standard 5×5 formats so far this season is in the Fourth Tier?
.229 BABIP and well below average strikeout rate
K rate could be higher. But if we are knocking down pitchers for 1 category every pitcher above him should be adjusted……The conversation regarding Zimmerman starts and stops with his Wins, ERA and WHIP.
“The conversation regarding Zimmerman starts and stops with his Wins, ERA and WHIP”
All of which are likely to regress as the season moves on.
Bobby Flay is way too high up there. Zakarian > Flay all day
Marcum’s ranking is absurdly low IMO; I’d put him in the Garces tier. He still has a decent strikeout rate and has better control than half of the guys in there. BABIP and LOR% (.330;60) should regress and he’s in a pitcher friendly park which should help with the HR/FB rate.
No Justin Verlander?
Okay
Can’t tell if you’re trolling or if you have reading comprehension issues.
Thinking with your Dick again?
I’m sincerely disappointed you didn’t go with all of the original Japanese Iron Chef names. Shame on you!
This.
You are right that Zimmermann is intentionally going P-to-contact to go deeper (and be damn effective). Going deep leads to a better chance of a W, and if you look closer (either watching him pitch or even at his Z-swing vs. Z-contact, etc.) you’ll see that he is painting the edges, and with enough movement to get really weak contact (and predictably strong ERA and WHIP). All of which is to say that he is once again underrated.
Yeah, but this is for fantasy, and “P-to-contact” isn’t a category in fantasy baseball – but strikeouts are.
.229 BABIP is silly even for an extreme flyball pitcher, which he is not. Also, while there may be some skill involved regarding popup rate, 18.1% has to be at least a few standard deviations away from the mean and will be mighty difficult to sustain.
Where’s king Felix?
OK
Was he traded to an NL team recently?
How can you leave out The Chairman? He’s so damn good, he’s the #1 bad guy on Hawaii Five-0 and he makes all these chefs cook for him every week.
Wheres Christopher Tillmans?
OK
What about Max Scherzer?
What about Jeremo Williams?
Love the naming theme, but even with the American Iron Chef theme, how can you leave out Hiroyuki Sakai and Rokusaburo Michiba off this? We’re talking a guy with a 70-15-1 record and a guy so cool they had a tribute episode to him! The ORIGINAL Iron Chef Japan! Even if you like or prefer the American version (I like the American version, but prefer the original), these two are simply great Chefs who are head and shoulders above Bobby Flay.
Also, Morimoto > Flay.
But I was glad to see the naming theme at all and am glad to see the effort put into this every month. 🙂
Literally using W-L record on Fangraphs. Have you seen his xFLAVOR? He’s bound to regress sooner or later.
Chris – where would you put Patrick Corbin? He is absent from your rankings and has certainly been a huge boon to fantasy rotations.
Nevermind, question withdrawn. I overlooked him and the search function failed me.
Very nice rankings. I’d put Latos up a tier though. Almost 50 GB rate, highest SwStr% of his life (admittedly it’s not that much higher than before). Hasn’t lost at home in over a year (I think), he is a real life and fantasy ace IMO
Nice rankings. A couple questions:
Would you really rather have Jon Niese (pitching like he’s hurt, lost velocity, no curveball anymore) than Julio Teheran?
Kevin Slowey (terrible team, 4.12 FIP) rather than Paul Maholm (good team, 3.83 FIP)?
your rankings gave some comfort, as i am bemoaning, ejax, questioning slowey, doubting gallardo and glad i have kershaw, baumgarner and gio. i would probably drop either ejax or slowey if i pick up beachy, but was leaning toward slowey. i was also thinking of trading 1 for g cole. your ranking s suggest things aren’t so bad in my own backyard, though my ststs bely that. atlnick
The nationals have 43 more games against the Marlins, Mets and Phillies. If you play H2H, the nationals schedule is obviously loaded with those divisional games.
Zimmerman’s BABIP may be much lower than his career average, but to his advantage he’s also playing crappy team.
derrr meant to “the nationals PLAYOFF schedule”
where would you put Brandon Beachy?
I just wanted to say that I wholeheartedly agree with your prediction that Zack Wheeler will play a major role in the Mets’ championship-winning team this year. They’re just an outfield and a couple of other pieces away…
Not sure what that minor-leaguer Skaggs is doing in that sentence.
Why is Ian Kennedy up so high? His walks are up, his Ks are down and his already low ground ball rate is even lower. He’s also giving up a career high line drive percentage. Yeah is 5.49 ERA is partly due to some bad luck, but it’s not like he’s lighting the world on fire (4.20 SIERA, 4.55 xFIP). Are those really third teir numbers?
*his 5.49 ERA
*tier
Yikes.
Where’s Dan Straily?
OK
Where’s Cheick Kongo?
OK