“It” being the long awaited breakout. After coming up through the Reds system as one of the top pitching prospects in the game, Homer Bailey was supposed to eventually lead the team’s rotation. But up until 2011, he had never posted an ERA below 4.43 and hadn’t pitched more than 132.0 innings. Through parts of five seasons, Bailey had been a disappointment and many were ready to give up on him ever becoming what had once been expected. Then 2012 happened and Bailey finally had that true breakout year we all thought he was capable of.

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The 2012 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on starting pitchers.

The players were ranked based on their 2012 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 140 innings pitched over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiple positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues.

These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

The writing had been on the wall for some time: Denard Span was unlikely to be long for Minnesota. And while the earliest rumors — dating back some 15ish months — suggested the Twins were looking at a package of Drew Storen and Roger Bernadina, the Twins wisely waited until Span proved healthy and got a relatively good return in exchange for the talented, young, and cost-controlled centerfielder.

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Yesterday, the Phillies announced that they simply couldn’t go any longer without Juan Pierre and so they decided to acquire his clone, Ben Revere. It cost them Vance Worley, which opens up a rotation spot for a new face. We still have a long ways to go in the off-season, so the team could very well sign another starter to replace Worley. But for this piece, let’s assume they replace him internally and check out their options.

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2012 was not kind to Cameron Maybin owners. After a seemingly breakthrough 2011 where he stole 40 bases, scored 82 runs, and coupled those with a 0.130 ISO, he came into this season perhaps not an elite option, but one that was almost universally drafted in fantasy leagues — a center-of-the-field positional player in his age 25 season who carried nearly guaranteed stolen base numbers with fair upside in most other standard 5×5 categories. On ESPN, Maybin came off the board 33rd among outfielders in fantasy leagues; 13th among his center field brethren (the latter number being especially important for leagues that don’t use generic outfield slots). However, after an up and down 2012, Maybin only slots in 71st in Zach Sanders’ end of season FVAR rankings — at $0 value, he was essentially replacement level; someone who (ignoring brand) was likely shuttled between the waiver wire and spot starts in most leagues.

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This offseason, as transactions on the big league level unfold, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.

This week: The Cardinals keep things open for their second baseman of the future, while the Giants and Rays will no longer have to fill holes by rushing their top prospects.

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The Winter Meetings are fun! So many rumors, so much inaction. Alas, there were several prospects outside the Rule 5 draft who were moved or rumored to move who are worth discussing. Of course, I can’t discuss them all, but if you’re interested in a player I’ll field questions in the comments.  Read the rest of this entry »

Last December, the Brewers won the posting for 30-year-old Japanese outfielder Norichika Aoki. The fee going back to his Japanese team was only $2.5 million; the deal he eventually signed in January was for another $2.5 million, but spread over two years (along with a team-friendly $1.5 million option for 2014). Aoki was so lightly thought of that he wasn’t really even in competition for a starting job in a Milwaukee outfield that already featured Ryan Braun, Nyjer Morgan, Carlos Gomez, & Corey Hart. When Eno Sarris posted our initial thoughts about him in January, the most optimistic view was mostly, “well, at least Braun’s suspension is going to open up 50 games worth of playing time.” As we of course later learned, even that didn’t happen, leaving Aoki’s situation uncertain at best.

So when we say that expectations for Aoki were low entering the season, that might even be overstating it. Fantasy players routinely ignored him in drafts, and for good reason. What was the point in bothering with a largely unknown import who was expected to get little playing time, especially after – fairly or (mostly) unfairly – the last Japanese position player, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, had flopped so spectacularly? Read the rest of this entry »

There are going to be buckets of “ones by land” in Philadelphia next year. Ben Revere has been traded to the Phillies, where he’ll continue to ply his speed-based game. Most fantasy players don’t have to be concerned with questions about defense or patience, but there are flaws to his game that are worth spotlighting.

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How many times have you had to rely on Joe Blanton? You don’t have to be ashamed, just admit it, we’ve all been there. It’s the last day of your fantasy matchup, and you’re looking for the one spot-starter who could give you a slim advantage. No matter what stat you try and sort by, Blanton always seems to top the list. Desperate, you take the chance and hope it doesn’t come back to bite you. In his career, Blanton has been the perfect AAAA player in fantasy leagues. Good enough to either be the last man on your roster, or the top choice on the waiver wire. Does joining the Angels change his value?

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