Is it me, or is there something special about having a month with five Saturday’s in it. Either way, we’re now through 40% of our September allotted Saturdays.

• The FanGraphs team is like a big family. A big, nerdy, baseball loving family. The first cap here is thanks to our own Jeff Zimmerman for pointing out to me what a great debut Brock Holt is having. Brock initially started the 2012 season in Double-A, but he hit is way to Triple-A and then earned himself playing time in the big leagues this season. He has filled in admirably for Neil Walker at the keystone and might make for a solid replacement at shortstop for Clint Barmes. Sure, Holt has a .500 BABIP (in 21 plate appearances no less) but at this late of a point on the season, any hot hitter is worth riding. Holt is hitting .368/.381/.421. Holt has hit — and hit well — at every level in the minors, save for 32 PA’s back in Rookie Ball. Keep an eye on his playing time and where he starts defensively. If he makes room for himself at shortstop, he could be a nice late round draft pick for next season. In Yahoo! and ESPN leagues combined, Holt’s ownership rate is 0.1%. I just wish his first name was “Steve.”
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• He’s human! Aroldis Chapman allowed a three-run shot to Matt Dominguez on Friday night, turning a potential win for the (likely) playoff-bound Reds into a loss to the lowly Astros. The outing absolutely killed Chapman’s peripherals, sending his xFIP soaring to… 1.63. Chapman’s otherworldly fastball velocity has ebbed and flowed a bit this year and is currently on a mini-downward slide, which may be in small part due to the fact that he’s already thrown more innings than he did all of last year (1 1/3 IP up on all levels with a month to go). That said, his xFIP is only up slightly to 2.37 since the start of August — up slightly because he put up a ridiculous -0.18 (yes, negative) in July. No reason to stop riding the Chapman train now.

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This week’s two-start piece includes a trio of righties and lefty who is a pretty good consideration in deep leagues. As an aside, Mike Minor is also a great play this week, but I didn’t feel he warranted a big write-up because he should be owned in most leagues already, at least if owners are still paying attention. Anyway, on to this week’s crew: Read the rest of this entry »

The list of September call-ups in the American League this year is rather disappointing once you get past Jurickson Profar’s name on the list. There’s no Jesus Montero or Matt Moore to go along with Profar this season. Since no impact arms, like a Shelby Miller, are being called up in the AL we’ll stick to looking at some notable hitters for these final ~25 games.

Jurickson Profar

As one of the top prospects in baseball anyone who plays fantasy should be well aware of his existence. The 19-year-old shortstop more than held his own at Double-A, posting a .367 wOBA, 129 wRC+ and hitting 14 home runs in 126 games. As good as Profar is, the Rangers have a, young, star shortstop in Elvis Andrus which limits his playing time dramatically. The Rangers would probably be best served by benching Michael Young and using Ian Kinsler at DH and playing Profar at second, but Ron Washington is too stubborn/loyal/stupid to do that. Young has been one of the worst every day players in baseball this season and Profar would provide better defense than Kinsler at second. In his only action this season Profar went 2-4 with a home run and double. He’s sat the last three games while Young and his .653 OPS have started them all.

In a perfect would Profar would be getting regular to semi-regular playing time, making him a startable player in deep mixed or AL only leagues. Sadly, Washington seems set on keeping Profar on the bench, almost making him un-ownable. In keeper leagues he should already be gone, but if he’s somehow still available grab him as soon as you can. He has the potential to hit for a decent average and provide a little bit of pop and speed if given the opportunity this season, but I wouldn’t count on it due to playing time issues.

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I can’t claim “killing your babies,” although I really wish I could. And before you go marching off with a fungo bat looking for your first born, please, put the bat down. ‘Killing your babies’ is a term/phrase/philosophy I’m stealing from an editor I worked with who used it to describe something difficult in writing. That is, sometimes you just have to get rid of entire chapters of your book, despite the fact that you think they’re brilliant — because they really just don’t work anymore. I like to apply this principle to fantasy baseball.

Admit it — you fall in love with players. To see certain names on your roster just warms the cockles of your heart. Even the sub-cockles. But there’s a point at which carrying your favorite beau is actually hurting your chances at winning. And although I actually know some managers who would rather lose with players they like (because, they say, they enjoy “rooting for them” – BAH!) — I refuse to believe that the good readers here want anything other than the final prize. If a player isn’t bringing your team closer to a championship, it’s high time to get out the hatchet. Kill your babies.

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Somehow, despite having the top OPS over the past calendar month, Mark Reynolds is still owned in just 51% of Yahoo! Leagues. Now, in most very competitive leagues, Reynolds is off the waiver wire and impossible to acquire, but there are still shallow leagues or slightly less competitive leagues where he is available. 49% of Yahoo! Leagues have not simply been given up on with a month left in the year.

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It’s time again to look ahead to the 2013 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the top potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now.

For those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2013 rookie primers are meant for players who will exhaust (or are expected to exhaust) their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Opening Day or soon thereafter. For now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the young talent at each position.

In case you need a brief example of how this sort of strategy can be worthwhile: In two deep leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, that allow for up to 10 keepers, I picked up Jarrod Parker, Addison Reed and Will Middlebrooks, as well as Paul Goldschmidt, Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart around this time last year, keeping them all for dirt cheap. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

First up? Catchers.

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I sat at my desk during my lunch break yesterday in search of inspiration for today’s piece. On the verge of giving up and right before I was to begin doing whatever it is lawyers do I noticed Matt Klassen was chatting here at Fangraphs. I quickly scanned his chat and ran across a question that asked whether or not a fantasy owner should keep Hunter Pence or Wil Myers this off-season. The question was enough to remind that our own David Laurila interviewed Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year just two short days ago. Ah, inspiration! Myers is obviously worth owning should your league’s rules allow you to keep even one minor leaguer on your roster without penalty. But, if that’s not the case and minor leaguers are part of your entire roster pool you need to consider the following discussion. Read the rest of this entry »

In my main league, I picked up rookie Colorado infielder Josh Rutledge about six weeks ago off the waiver wire. This is hardly because I had any sort of prescient idea that Rutledge would suddenly become a red-hot hitter who would help propel me into the playoffs; mainly, it was because previous flavor-of-the-week Trevor Plouffe was hurting, and the guy who was at least likely to get a shot at shortstop playing time with Troy Tulowitzki injured and Marco Scutaro traded seemed like a better option than the Nick Puntos and Brandon Crawfords of the world. 46 games later, Rutledge’s teammates are calling him “Baby Giambi” and his .399 wOBA (headed into play on Thursday) would be good for fifth-best in baseball if he could keep that rate up over enough plate appearances to qualify.

Bright red “small sample size” alarms are justifiably ringing there, and it’s of course far from realistic to expect that kind of production from Rutledge over a full season. Still, even having this kind of conversation regarding offensive output from a middle infielder is impressive, and it’s worth looking into the 23-year-old Alabama product as fantasy playoffs loom this season and 2013 keeper decisions start to get made. While Rutledge has been exclusively a shortstop in his time in the bigs, he moved across the bag to make his first start at second base on Thursday, which is where he’ll remain now that Tulowitzki is nearly healthy. Read the rest of this entry »