Today’s Roto Riteup is quite good. I think. That decision is entirely up to you.

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• Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs had a ninth inning to forget in the Bronx this afternoon. After not being used since before the all-star break, the Angels brought Frieri in in a 10-5 game, mostly to give him some late inning work. Soon, Twitter exploded with jokes about “closers who can’t pitch in save situations” as Frieri gave up a single and a pair of walks before getting yanked mid-at bat after throwing a fastball about three feet off the plate to Raul Ibanez. The other half of the Angels closing duo (Downs) came in and fared slightly better, (actually) recording a couple outs, but he also walked a couple and gave up an infield hit off his own glove before Mike Scioscia had enough and called on Kevin Jepsen to induce an Alex Rodriguez pop up to (mercifully) end the ninth. It has been mentioned in this space before, but the one flaw in Frieri’s game this season has been the walks (13.6% BB% coming into today’s game) which explains most of the differential between his ERA (1.42) and his xFIP (3.20). Downs’ problem has generally been a lack of stuff; which was also on display today (failing to put away Curtis Granderson on a handful of fouled-off breaking balls before missing low and away to walk in a run), but his biggest issue (and most uncharacteristic) were his walks this weekend in Yankee Stadium (four walks in the last 1.1 innings after only allowing six in his first 30). Both pitchers are outperforming their peripherals but are probably in no immediate danger of losing their late inning jobs given their performance in the first half. That said, the Angels do have some interesting candidates in LaTroy Hawkins (3.81 xFIP), Jordan Walden (3.91 xFIP, now on the DL) and Jepsen (4.44 xFIP) behind them if their free pass binges persist.

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Instead of an attempt at wit in today’s Roto Riteup, I’ll leave you with Dan Szymborski’s heatmap of Ryan Theriot. I saw this last night around midnight and couldn’t stop laughing. Baseball nerd humor at it it’s finest!

• Speaking of middle infielders, Stephen Drew is back; but more importantly he is back and his projection looks good. His rest of season ZiPS is for a .328 wOBA. If Drew had been healthy all year long, a .328 wOBA would place him seventh among qualified shortstops. I touched on Drew a couple of weeks ago, but no one has taken me up on my suggestion just yet. Drew is still available in 79% of Yahoo! and 85% of ESPN leagues. If you’re looking for a great second half SS eligible player, Drew could be your guy. Thanks to reader/commenter Mike for pointing out that Jed Lowrie left the game last night after an apparent ankle and knee injury. Lowrie has been nothing short of fantastic this season and was seen on crutches after the game. Drew could be the ideal replacement candidate.
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For me personally, it feels like offensive surprises and busts are harder to evaluate during the year because we have fewer tools to analyze. Power is one skill that is difficult to decide how real a spike or drop is, but Jeff Zimmerman has been mentioning a tool at Baseball Heat Maps that gives you the distance of a hitter’s batted balls, which may really help in this type of analysis. In the past, I have used the ESPN Home Run Tracker site to help determine how flukey a change in HR/FB ratio is, but I think looking at the raw average distance is a less flawed method. I looked at the five hitters whose HR/FB ratio has increased the most this year and then added their 2011 and 2012 average home run plus fly ball distances to the table.

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Baseball is back! Not only is baseball back, but so is your favorite fantasy baseball morning reading. We’ll just go ahead and assume that this is your favorite.

• Alexei Ramirez’s seasonal line is still looking rather bleak, but over the past 30 days he has come around. In fact, he hasn’t just come around, but he’s been on fire. A line of .379/.402/.495 for the past month is something that isn’t sustainable, but it sure is welcome to see, especially from a shortstop. As you can tell from that batting line, Alexei still isn’t drawing walks, but he has been able to post solid offensive numbers in past seasons without the walks. His seasonal BABIP is now .304, and one could reasonably expect Ramirez to hit numbers in the neighborhood of his ZiPS rest-of-season projection. For my two cents, I think he’ll exceed his projection, as I think his slugging will be higher than the predicted .387 SLG. I’d expect something like five to seven home runs with 10 steals the rest of the way. Ramirez is owned in the vast majority of ESPN leagues, but his Yahoo! ownership is only 64%. If he’s available, I’d pick him up.
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• Lots of injury bullet points the last couple days. Matt Capps is off the disabled list but will be eased back into the closer role. Capps is still a trade candidate, so don’t drop Jared Burton or Glen Perkins just yet. Surprise, surprise, Frank Francisco suffered a setback in his rehab from a sore oblique. With Bobby Parnell (a potential long-term fit for the Mets) pitching as well as he has (3.10 xFIP, 4.25 K/BB), he could stir up a controversy if Francisco doesn’t make it back soon, even if manager Terry Collins has given Francisco the vote of confidence.

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Now that we’re all back from our All Star respite, let’s get back to our regularly scheduled two-start business. This week features a veteran righty and a pair of young guns with a couple of sleepers mixed in. Read the rest of this entry »

Actually, I’ll be here after 1:15 ET, so this is just a placeholder until then. Don’t blame me, blame time zones.

In all likelihood, Brett Myers will be dealt at this year’s trade deadline. His eventual trade will cause a ripple effect in the Astros bullpen, moving a set up man to the ninth inning and a middle reliever up to a set up role. The options are currently Brandon Lyon — who actually may also be traded — and Wilton Lopez.

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Rankings week is mercifully drawing to a close, with only the pitchers left for Monday. It makes sense to close the offense with catchers, in a way — they are the least likely position to make an offensive impact on your fantasy team. Sure, middle infielders hit for a worse batting line, but catchers are close, and they accrue fewer plate appearances. Their teams need to watch out for their knees and always employ a tandem at the position — only five catchers are projected to accrue more than 500 at-bats this year by the updated ZiPs, and that’s not a ton. By contrast, there are three first baseman that might crack 600 at-bats, and 21 that should cross the 500 at-bat threshold.

Catchers: not only are they doing it worse, they’re doing it less often. Maybe that’s a boon, actually. Sometimes, especially in two-catcher leagues, it makes sense just to leave that space unfilled. Many of these guys are just going to hurt your team more with every plate appearance.

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