I made a mistake in my latest auction draft. A rookie mistake. I left money on the table. You know what, though — I’m not too worried about it. It was a natural risk that was bred from a few of my main tenets. Here are some of those personal rules — which I may have to alter now that I’m going public — and then I’ll discuss how implementing the rules went in yesterday’s particular draft.

1) Throw guys you don’t want. Bid on them a little bit so people don’t know that you’re throwing guys you don’t want. Watch them spend money on players you don’t want.

2) Budget two dollars for every bench spot. This creates end-game flexibility. You’ll be able to steal everyone’s one-dollar picks.

3) Compare early results for stars to your auction value spreadsheet. Adjust your plan accordingly.

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It’s been a pretty tough few months for Ryan Madson. First the 31-year-old right-hander reportedly had a four-year, $44 million offer pulled off the table by his former team before they went all in on Jonathan Papelbon. After weeks of sitting on the offseason sidelines, he took a one-year, $8.5 million pillow contract from the Reds with an eye on a big multi-year payday next offseason. That won’t happen now. A nagging elbow injury this spring turned out to be a torn elbow ligament, and now the former Phillie will miss the season with Tommy John surgery.

An injury of this caliber has some far-reaching fantasy implications beyond the obvious — Madson being non-rosterable — so let’s break it down…

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Don’t pay attention to spring stats. That’s one of the mottos we live by at RotoGraphs. And while spring stats can be terribly misleading, there are some instances where knowing the stats could give you a leg up in your drafts. Having great counting stats during the spring may not equal success — just ask Jake Fox — but some stats can give you an idea about how much playing time a player will receive, or how a player is recovering from an injury. Here are three spring performances that may deserve a closer look.

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As stat geeks, we are quick to tell less nerdy baseball fans that spring training stats mean nothing. Whether it’s the tiny sample size, the varying level of competition, the experimenting with new pitches/mechanics/stances etc, there is a ton of noise clouding the data. Even with the obvious explanations, there have still been studies performed to determine whether spring stats have any significance. Sure enough, historical studies have confirmed that spring training stats have limited value.

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Today’s Roto Riteup is going to focus on left fielders. Because it does, that’s why.

–  The Blue Jays have made a decision about their LF opening, and the job has been handed over to Eric Thames. Thames wasn’t a hyped prospect, but he’s shown power in Double-A, Triple-A, and the major leagues. Thames strikeout rate is a bit concerning, but he can be a good outfielder for you if you are willing to play him against only right-handed pitching.

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With it officially announced that Joakim Soria will receive Tommy John surgery, we are now focused on who ends up with more saves, Jonathan Broxton or Greg Holland. To me, Holland seems like the better bet to both get and hold onto the job for the length of the season.

For starters, Ned Yost has seen firsthand what Holland can do. He saw him net 24 shutdowns and meltdown just once, even though I doubt he uses those two statistics, he saw Holland’s dominance throughout last season. While Broxton does have the “closer experience,” he also pitched just 12.2 innings last year and recorded a 4.04 ERA the season before. His FIP of 3.01 that season was impressive, but I imagine Yost still values ERA more than any defensive independent pitching stat.

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As Chad Young already spelled out in his piece earlier today, the two of us recently completed a trade in the second FanGraphs Staff League: Pablo Sandoval and Hong-Chih Kuo for Matt Thornton and Paul Goldschmidt.

I was on the end receiving Sandoval, and as far as overall trade analysis goes, I have to agree almost entirely with Chad. Due to the relative strengths and weaknesses of both our teams, I think this was one of those trades that — right now, at least — rates as a win-win. Both of us are dealing from depth; I get the third baseman I desperately need without destroying my bullpen or offensive depth, and Chad improves his bullpen considerably and gets a young, high upside first baseman without hurting his offense. Only time will tell exactly how this works out, but in the moment, both of us left feeling quite happy with our returns.

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If your memory works anything like mine, you have a small pocket of your brain specifically used for random, useless baseball trivia. For instance, I remember that Willie Bloomquist started the 2011 season with a 10 game hitting streak. I forgot my daughter’s date of birth yesterday, but I apparently made room in my skull for this.

Indeed – looking at his stats, Willie Boom-Boom was hitting .340/.360/.468 with seven RBI and he even hit a home run. It turns out, that was 33% of his home run total and 37% of his total RBI for the season. He finished at .254/.310/.320.

When the season starts, we try hard to not read much into small sample sizes – and if you’re a longtime reader, you know that the sample size is constantly referred to for the first couple months of the season, and for good reason. But in contrast to Spring training, these statistics actually matter to our fantasy baseball teams, so it’s hard to ignore when one guy is hitting out of his mind and another is barely doing anything. As logical as I try to be, I guarantee you that I’m disappointed when half my team doesn’t hit a home run on opening day.

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Drafts be drafting. Let’s make this a fantasy-centered chat — even if beer and sandwiches and real baseball will always be at home in my chats — and get to the meat of it all. I’ll be here at 1230, and I promise… there will be (a) lightning (round).

The season is bearing down on us, so it’s time for a roundup of where some hitting prospects stand in their attempts to make Opening Day rosters across baseball.

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