160

That is by far the most important number related to Stephen Strasburg’s 2012 season. Not 62, his current ADP according to Mock Draft Central, with a range of 35-90 in mixed drafts. Not 9.3, his K/9 according to ZiPS, which is actually on the lower end of most projections that have been published so far. Not 5, the number of both the number of starts he made during the fantasy playoffs last year or his projected WAR according to the fan projections. 160, or the number of innings the Nationals are believed to have capped Strasburg at for the 2012 season before taking the leash off in 2013. Read the rest of this entry »

In leagues that designate between starting pitchers and relief pitchers, and especially in leagues that use both designations and account for holds, value can be found in relief pitchers with starting pitcher eligibility. Below are a couple names to keep an eye on if you participate in these types of leagues.

Alexi Ogando

Ogando’s fantasy value is taking a huge hit after his impressive rookie season. The young-right hander is being moved to the bullpen, and will primarily be a set-up man as Joe Nathan was signed to close games for the Rangers. Ogando’s move to the bullpen does give him some value as a dual-eligible reliever though, as he will have starter pitching eligibility in drafts. He should see his performance rise, as relievers often see their earned run average decrease by about a run after transitioning from the rotation. If Ogando piles up strikeouts and pitches to an ERA in the mid-2.50 range, he could have value to a league that accounts for holds, especially since he can be assigned to either pitcher role.

Kyle McClellan

McClellan did not have the type of success in the rotation that the Cardinals hoped for when they asked him to fill in for Adam Wainwright last season. He was eventually moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen, but did not pitch to the level of effectiveness that he did in 2010. With a full-time move back into the ‘pen, the sinkerballer may be able to tally holds as a dual-eligible reliever. He is not the most effective reliever and his strikeout rate is below average, but if you have a league where you can take advantage of his holds and dual-eligibility, he could be worth a look.

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As a speedy center fielder who stands just 5-foot-10 and weighs 190 pounds (dreads included), Andrew McCutchen hardly fits the power hitting archetype. But don’t let his small stature fool you — ‘Cutch can go deep. Possessing the quickest wrists this side of Gary Sheffield, McCutchen has increased his home run total from 12 as a rookie in 2009 to 16 in 2010 and 23 this past year. ‘Cutch has discovered his home run stroke by becoming a power threat to all fields. With a little more thump in 2012 and more walks from opponents pitching him carefully, he could become just the second Pirate ever to go 30/30 (some dude named Barry did it in 1990 and ’92).

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After sites like Mock Draft Central launched and league hosts like Yahoo! and CBS have added the information, Average Draft Position data has become all the rage. I have read so many articles referencing ADP, and yet, the majority of the time I still have no idea exactly what the author means or how owners utilize it. I recently read a line from a column about mock draft strategy that called ADP’s employment being overrated. Huh? I don’t get it. And how many times have I read that drafter X “reached” on a player? I am confused exactly what is meant by a reach. So let’s try to get back on the same page, while also figuring out exactly how the heck ADP data is actually best used.

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This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.

For our third over/under game, let’s take a look at Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.

The over/under for today’s game is an either/or: Trout or Harper. As in, which player would you want if you were starting a new keeper league today and had the first pick? First, kudos for rigging the game in your favor. Second, I hope it’s an ottoneu league. Third — which one are you taking?

One’s got wheels of steal and surprising pop. The other has light-tower power and the eye blacks of a champion. One is in a crowded outfield but has the ability to contribute in every category. The other has no roadblocks but may be more of your traditional slugger. If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult David Golebiewski’s excellent piece polling the major prospecters about their preference between the two players, or read Jason Catania on Keeper League Strategies. Zach Sanders’ piece on Valuing Upside Graphically might also come into play.

But since you don’t — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to suss out the difference between these two super studs. If your answer changes depending on league settings, feel free to include that in your answer.

Have at it!

Where would you anticipate a pitcher with a 1.07 WHIP, a 3.29 ERA, and a 9.92 K/9 would be getting drafted? To put those numbers in perspective, his WHIP would have been 11th best among starters, his ERA would have been in the top 30, and his K/9 would have been 3rd best in baseball, provided he had qualified for the ERA title, which he did not. While Cory Luebke’s numbers put him as one of the 20 best starters in baseball, his ADP of 138 very clearly does not. According to Mock Draft Central, Luebke is being drafted anywhere from 94th to 216th in mixed leagues, commonly landing between Anibal Sanchez and Tim Hudson. Read the rest of this entry »

So you take your Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez, you select Evan Longoria or Jose Bautista and breathe a sigh of relief that you have first base and third base covered, now let’s see about building something of a respectable pitching staff. And then around the 15th round it occurs to you that you have that pesky corner infield situation to tend to (not to mention middle infield, and for those of you in such leagues – one or more utility slots — but that’s for another post).

I have fallen into a false sense of security before during drafts where I select a player and feel a little like Ed Norton in Fight Club regarding his couch – that is, “I’ve got that sofa issue handled.” We know there’s more work to be done on the offense side of the dish, yet we might fail to plan as diligently as we did for the respective positions.

This post is a little strategy that might be quite “101” to some, but it was born out of comments about the need to plan for the flex positions in our leagues. The context is standard 5×5, 12 team, non-keeper roto leagues.

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Exactly fifty players stole at least 20 bases last season, but only six of them did it in fewer plate appearances that Eduardo Nunez. The Yankees’ reserve infielder swiped 22 bags (in 28 tries) in 2011 while only coming to the plate 338 times, and only four of those steals came as a pinch-runner. The six guys who stole at least 20 bases in fewer plate appearances fit into two basic categories…

Everyday Players in 2012
Dee Gordon (24 SB in 233 PA)
Jason Bourgeois (31 SB in 252 PA)
Desmond Jennings (20 SB in 287 PA)

Non-Everyday Players in 2012
Tony Campana (24 SB in 155 PA)
Eric Young Jr. (27 SB in 229 PA)
Jordan Schafer (22 SB in 337 PA)

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We’ve spent so much time on these Would You Rathers with respect to keeper leagues that it’s time we threw some out for those that re-draft each year.  Taking long term benefits out of the way, which player would you rather draft this season — Yoenis Cespedes or Bryce Harper?

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Judging the Braves defense in 2011 depends on which stats or methods you see as the most accurate. For instance, UZR has the Braves ranked in the bottom five of defensive teams while DRS has the Braves ranked in the top nine. Alex Gonzalez (-0.3 UZR, +15 DRS) and Freddie Freeman (-12.6 UZR, 0 DRS) are the two players the numbers disagree with most, and are a big reason for the differences in the two totals.

Whatever stats you decide to look at, it is easy to see that the Braves’ defensive strength was in the outfield, where both Jason Heyward and Martin Prado were above average defenders. The Braves shuffled centerfielders for a majority of the season, with Jordan Schafer, Michael Bourn, and Nate McLouth all amassing similar innings totals in center. McLouth was quite poor in center while the other two were at least average to above average.

The problem with the Braves defense, and what is likely to be an even bigger problem this season, was the infield. Freeman likely is not the plus defender many expected, but he probably also is not as bad as the one year UZR sample suggests. He is closer to average defensively, which is fine. Gonzalez was a top notch defender the whole season, which was the lone reason for the Braves sticking with him at shortstop for the entirety of the year was in his high quality glove.

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