Archive for January, 2012

Astros Add Snyder to Catcher Mix

For at least the last decade, the Houston Astros have been a veritable wasteland for offensively productive catchers.  From years of service courtesy of the light-hitting Brad Ausmus to unsuccessful rookies like J.R. Towles and Jason Castro to a failed experiment with an aging Ivan Rodriguez to the punchless veteran Humberto Quintero, there hasn’t been an Astros backstop worth looking at in fantasy since the days before Craig Biggio was moved to second base.  However, with the recent signing of Chris Snyder, that could all change here in 2012.

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Carlos Pena Returns to the Trop

Carlos Pena is a Tampa Bay Ray again. While it’s easy for fantasy owners to reminisce about the 116 home runs Pena hit between 2007-2009, Pena’s 2010 was the worst offensive showing on his career. After re-establishing some of his value in Chicago this past season, Pena will return to the Trop in 2012. Though Pena has experienced success there before, the park is tougher on lefties than Wrigley Field. At age 34 (in May), will Pena continue to be a useful fantasy option — or will the Trop do him in once again?

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What is Position Scarcity, Continued

I first want to thank everyone who read What is Position Scarcity, Really? and commented, as it led to an interesting discussion with lots of good points and observations. I quickly realized how in-depth this concept could go and that I may not have explained myself as well as I would have liked. It happens all too often, as I sometimes suck at clearly stating my argument and finding the words to use so that everyone understands what I am trying to convey. I have been emailing with a reader/listener of my radio show who read the aforementioned post and it was evident that I had not done a good enough job convincing him either. Luckily, as I was typing my response to him, it suddenly hit me, as I thought of something I should have included in my original article, but failed to.

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Brad Hawpe Resurrects in Texas

The likelihood of the Texas Rangers signing Prince Fielder grew even slimmer on Friday when the team opted to take a cheaper route and sign Brad Hawpe to a minor league league deal.  Hawpe, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, also received an invite to spring training and, if he makes the cut, is expected to provide insurance for incumbent first baseman Mitch Moreland, who is currently recovering from off season wrist surgery.  Now the question remains…will Hawpe have any fantasy value in 2012?

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Eno Sarris Pan FanGraphs Chat

I’m ready. Let’s talk real or fantasy (or not) baseball. It’s up to you. (Okay, I’ll be here at 12:30, but you get your question answered first if you drop it in now).


Buy Low on Jason Heyward

A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldn’t legally buy a beer. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.com’s latest ADP rankings.

While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Here’s why.

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Non-Roster Invitee Madness: J.R. Towles

Minor League contracts with an invitation to spring training have been popping up like wildflowers this offseason and have seemingly become more common in recent years than they were in the early part of the decade. Frequently, it’s a way for teams to get a good look at an aging free agent without committing either the roster spot or any amount of money they’ll actually miss.

That doesn’t mean that players on an NRI are inherently worthless, especially in a fantasy context were you can let the team do the heavy lifting of figuring out whether a player has much left to offer. For deep-league players, especially those in two-catcher, AL- or NL-only leagues, there’s talent floating around in the minor league pool that will likely get a shot at a backup job. The most promising of the bunch: J.R. Towles.

Towles was once a shiny prospect in the Astros organization, a catcher that could hit, flashed a little bit of power, and could throw out a few runners — enough to make it possible that he’d stick behind the plate anyway. It’s hard to look at Towles’ stats and say that he had a fair chance and threw it away; he’s never had more than 175 major league PAs in a season and even his time in the minors has been fragmented. Injuries have played a role, though the exact extent to which that has been his Waterloo is hard to tell given the state of minor league injury data.

Nevertheless, the fact remains that he can play enough defense to stick behind the plate and has a minor league OPS of .859. He’ll turn 28 just before camps open, so it isn’t as though you have to hope against all odds that he’ll recapture the promise of his youth. The question is whether he’ll be able to make the team or if he’ll have to hang out in Rochester until a roster spot opens up. The Twins are rather stocked on catchers with Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, and Drew Butera all already on the roster, but that doesn’t mean the way is barred for Towles.

Mauer and Doumit don’t exactly have the best record of staying healthy and the Twins seem content with the idea of rotating the two between catching, first base, and DH in order to keep both bats in the lineup while lessening the catching load. What this means is that there’s a real possibility that they’ll carry a traditional backup catcher, meaning Towles need only beat out Butera and he’s on the roster. Which is doable, but might be difficult.

This time last year, Towles wouldn’t have had a prayer of beating out Butera, who the Twins like for his ability to handle the pitching staff and throw out runners. He is, in almost every way, your quintessential all-glove-no-hit backup catcher and the team believed they could live with that. What they thought they could live with was a player who hit .220 and threw out about a third of baserunners in whatever limited playing time they got. In 2011, Butera threw out just under a third of those who ran against him — a perfectly fine rate — but hit just .167/.210/.239 in over 250 PAs. Butera is still a better defensive catcher than Towles, so if the Twins want to carry a catch-and-throw catcher, it’ll be Butera and Towles will head to Triple-A. If they think there’s a chance that whoever fills the role is going to get anywhere near the 250-300 PAs that Butera got last year, Towles will get a definite chance to show he can still hit in camp.

For the vast majority of fantasy players, Towles will still be too deep to use even if he makes the roster. However, he’s worth following through camp for players in multiple-catcher leagues, as he isn’t guaranteed to be mediocre and with the respective injury histories of Mauer and Doumit, he’ll have as good a shot at concerted playing time as any third catcher in baseball.


What is Position Scarcity, Really?

Last night on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable radio show (live every Wed. night at 9 PM EST!), the question was posed as to whether position scarcity was greatest in the outfield this year. I was pretty shocked to hear such a suggestion as I figured it was pretty well known that every year catcher is the scarcest. It got me to thinking that this may be an issue of semantics and that many people still aren’t sure exactly what is meant by the phrase position scarcity. So here I am to explain.

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ottoneu News: Keeper Deadline, Abandoned Teams

Despite the Seattle storm (not to be confused with the Seattle Storm) that has me snowed in, baseball is actually just around the corner. Pitchers and catchers are due to report in about a month, fantasy auctions are on the calendar, and all ottoneu players are fretting over their keeper decisions.

With that in mind, there are three topics that readers have been asking about that deserve some attention today: 1) Keeper decisions, 2) Filling abandoned teams, 3) Starting new teams and leagues.

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Projecting Yu Darvish

The Rangers finally got their man yesterday, agreeing to sign Yu Darvish to a six-year, $60 million contract on top of the $51.7 million posting fee they will pay the Nippon Ham Fighters. At $111.7 million overall, it’s the most money any team has ever invested in a right-handed pitcher as part of one contract in baseball history. Darvish won’t get all of that money of course, but that’s what Texas is shelling out to get him. Interestingly enough, the 50th percentile ZiPS projection values his next five years at 22.4 WAR and $112 million.

As you know, Darvish’s performance in Japan was out of this world good. He’s had several years with the Nippon Ham Fighters better than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s best season with the Seibu Lions, better than anything Kei Igawa or Hiroki Kuroda or Hideki Irabu ever did. At 25 years old and with a scouting report that reads like a pitcher you created in a video game, fans have every reason to get excited about his future. But how should we value him in fantasy?

Darvish’s expected performance is next to impossible to pin down because of the difference between NPB and MLB, meaning the talent level, the actual baseballs and mounds, park effects, the whole nine. The recent history of Japanese pitchers coming over to the bigs isn’t very good, though Dice-K has been better than he generally gets credit for. Darvish is a different breed though, he’s physically bigger than most of his peers (listed at 6-foot-5, 220 lbs.) and is a pure power pitcher. Let’s see what the projection systems have to say…

W IP ERA WHIP K/9 WAR
Oliver n/a 193 2.45 0.99 10.3 6.4
ZiPS 13 194 3.62 n/a 7.8 4.5
CAIRO 14 190 3.44 1.25 7.1 n/a
RotoChamp 15 200 3.33 1.17 8.1 n/a

Obligatory: Projections are not predictions, just a reasonable estimate of talent level.

Three of the four systems essentially agree with each other while Oliver is really far out there on the optimistic side. That system basically sees 2010 Felix Hernandez potential, while the others are stuck somewhere between the 2011 versions of Javier Vazquez and Wandy Rodriguez. That’s definitely not a bad thing, but I get the sense that Darvish will be valued much more highly on draft day. It felt like everyone I spoke to thought Dice-K went much earlier than expected back in 2007.

My biggest concern for Darvish is his workload, especially at such a young age. He threw 232 innings last year and has thrown at least 200 in four of the last five years, but that was on a seven-day schedule. Now he’ll be pitching on a five-day schedule in that 100-degree Texas heat all summer, so fatigue down the stretch is definitely something worth monitoring. Then again, he’s young and world-class athlete, so perhaps he’ll just power through it. It’s all part of the mystery.

Since we don’t have a player or fan projections page for Darvish just yet, I intend to do a little crowdsouring early next week to see what the masses have to say about his expected 2012 output. We’ll also crowdsource his average draft position at some point as well. I expect him to be something like the 20th starting pitcher off the board at the moment, maybe even a little bit later than that. There’s no denying the upside, but those early picks should be spent on certainty.