The first domino has fallen in Miami. Jose Reyes will be the shortstop, for the next couple of years at least, and Hanley Ramirez will play third base. That second domino has pushed the Marlins’ remaining position battle into centerfield. Who will emerge from the three-headed beast at that position in 2012? Crockett got the occasional urge for stability in his life, but it’s chaos that produces fantasy value picks. Let’s break down the three candidates.

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As we dive deeper into the rankings, we start to come across some youngster lacking track records and a veteran with some injury concerns. Saves are saves though; it’s amazing what we’ll put up with to make sure we get as many of them as possible.

I’ve included Zach Sanders’ end of season player rankings for reference.

Tier One (link)
Craig Kimbrel
John Axford
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera

Tier Two (link)
Ryan Madson
Brian Wilson
J.J. Putz
Jose Valverde
Heath Bell

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If you’re one of those people who has a hard time justifying the use of a high draft choice on a catcher and you like to bargain shop, then perhaps San Diego Padres backstop Nick Hundley is a name you should consider this season.  He’s not one to top many lists right now and between the mediocre stat lines and the power-suppressing ballpark he calls home, the 28 year old backstop has become much more of an afterthought in fantasy drafts.  However, if you take a closer look into his numbers and the circumstances surrounding his career, there is definite reason to believe that there is growth potential on the horizon which could result in him being a possible breakout sleeper candidate in 2012.

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The Houston Astros aren’t going to be a good baseball team next season. But that doesn’t mean they should be ignored in fantasy baseball. Players on lowly teams like the Astros can often fall under the radar — becoming the ideal sleeper candidates. The Astros have at least two such players next season in Bud Norris and J.D. Martinez. Both players took steps towards relevancy last season, and appear poised for larger roles this year. What should owners expect out of Norris and Martinez going forward?

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Last week I had a little fun and decided to have a debate with myself about Brett Lawrie. Since it was a genuinely enjoyable article to write, I am going to do it again. This time I will be debating the merits of Eric Hosmer, with my friends Bull and Bear starring in the show.

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Found the light switch. In the zone. In a groove. Dialed. Signed a deal with the Devil.

Call it what you want, but after Mike Carp’s sizzling finish to 2011, fantasy managers want to know just who the hell this guy is who was supposed to be simply “organizational depth” for a fledgling franchise.

The 2011 Seattle Mariners, buoyed largely by some fantastic starting pitching, hung around in the AL West race long enough to let Mike Carp bludgeon AAA pitching until the organization couldn’t not call him up. So they did. And he stunk. He stunk badly. Like .200/.333/.257 with no home runs and 14 strikeouts over 15 games bad. And then they couldn’t not send him back down – which they did on July 3rd.

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By now you’ve already heard the news that the Rockies traded Chris Iannetta and his over-inflated OBP to the “can we please have Mike Napoli back, our catchers stink” Angels while signing Reds free agent Ramon Hernandez as a replacement and mentor for prospect Wilin Rosario.  If not, then wake up and check out articles here from Erik Hahmann, Jack Moore and Chris Cwik, all of whom have chimed in on the move.  But while all that is certainly big news, my fantasy radar keeps me in Cincinnati.  With the departure of Hernandez, the Reds will have a new catching tandem to watch and, more than likely, bigger possibilities on the horizon.

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Chase Headley was an exciting and very promising player in the minor leagues after being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2005 amateur draft. Over four minor league seasons, Headley hit .301/.399/.500. In 2008 at AAA Portland, Headley hit .305/.383/.556 with 13 HR in just 65 games, earning a permanent call to the majors.

Since then, the power hasn’t really developed as the Padres probably envisioned. He has a career line of .269/.343/.392 with just 36 home runs over more than 2000 plate appearances. In real-life baseball, Headley is valuable because of his low cost and decent glove but in fantasy baseball circles, you’re typically looking for more out of your corner infielders. But there may be some reason for optimism with Headley going forward.

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We’ve seen many catchers already changing teams this off-season. Most of the moves have been of little consequence to the fantasy owner, as backstops John Jaso, Gerald Laird, Jose Molina, Rod Barajas and Taylor Teagarden are not men of great social or political import. The Angels and Rockies set out to change that this past Wednesday.

New Angels General Manager Jerry DiPoto, obviously not a fan of the “offense” Jeff Mathis had been providing the team, dealt starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood to Colorado for Chris Iannetta. He never seemed to have the backing of the Rockies’ front office – his name always swirled in trade rumors – or manager Jim Tracy. His low contact rates will keep him from hitting for a good average but the 15-20 home run power and excellent plate discipline more than make up for it. The 28-year-old hit .238/.370/.414 with 14 home runs, 55 runs batted in and even added six steals in 426 plate appearances last season.

To compare, the Angels trio of catchers combined to hit .190/.253/.301 with 10 home runs, 49 runs batted in and one steal in 605 plate appearances. You almost have to try to be that bad. Iannetta has benefited from playing in Colorado where his career .869 OPS is excellent, but his road total of .707 is still good relative to his position. His power numbers may dip a bit in pitcher friendly Anaheim but given ~400 plate appearances he should continue to be among the top half of fantasy catchers next season.

To replace Iannetta the Rockies signed veteran Ramon Hernandez. The soon to be 36-year-old hasn’t collected more than 352 plate appearances since 2008 – catching is hard, ya know? – but has hit well in the time he’s been allotted. Over the past two seasons Hernandez’s .790 OPS ranks 10th among all catchers with at least 650 plate appearances. He doesn’t hit for the power he once did but his contact rate has remained steady over the years. I mentioned that Iannetta had been helped by his home park but he pales in comparison to Hernandez. Playing in Cincinnati’s bandbox the past three seasons Hernandez had an average OPS of .854 compared to .680 on the road. He certainly made a smart decision moving to Coors Field.

The main drawback with Hernandez is his age. He turns 36 in May, and after a hot start to last season that saw him hit .322/.377/.539 with 10 home runs before the all-star break he tumbled down hill the rest of the way hitting just .220/.287/.305. His skills are declining, maybe not as much as his second half would indicate but declining nonetheless. Playing in Coors should mask some of his inabilities, and he’ll likely get more playing time than young Wilin Rosario, but don’t set your expectations too high for 2012.

Bust. Injury-prone. Waste of money. Entering the 2011 season, Alex Gordon was burdened by all of these labels. The Nebraska Cornhusker stud, a Golden Spikes Award winner, number two pick in the ’05 draft and career .321/.438/.578 hitter in the minors, struggled with quadriceps, hip and thumb injuries early in his MLB career and batted just .244/.328/.405 from 2007 to 2010. Moved off third base in deference to Kansas City’s new hot-shot hot corner prospect, Mike Moustakas, Gordon was an afterthought fighting to prove he was still worthy of being in, much less anchoring, a big league lineup.

That all changed during his age-27 season. Gordon stayed healthy while living up to his minor league dossier and former #2 overall prospect status from Baseball America, swatting pitchers for a .303/.367/.502 line in 690 plate appearances. His offensive surge during a season in which run-scoring once again declined meant that his bat was 41 percent better than average (141 wRC+), compared to seven percent worse than average from ’07 to ’10.

The question now, of course, is whether Gordon is here to stay as a .300+ hitter and all-around offensive threat. Was his torrid 2011 a sign of things to come as he’s in what are typically a hitter’s peak seasons, or will he be overvalued in 2012 by euphoric owners who overlook warning signs that his sudden turnaround was too good to be true? The truth likely lies somewhere between those two extremes — Gordon did indeed make progress at the plate, but expecting him to replicate his 2011 season would be a good way to end up disappointed in 2012.

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