It wasn’t the resigning the team, or fans, had hoped for last week, but Rafael Furcal’s return to the Cardinals is an important one.

It’s important for the Cardinals because they’re going to contend for a division title despite the loss of Albert Pujols, and Furcal is better than nearly every alternative currently on the market. It’s important for the fantasy owner because now the Cardinals may actually have a viable fantasy option at shortstop. It’s a position that is among the weakest in baseball and no team knows that better than St. Louis. Last season Ryan Theriot played 91 games at short before the addition of Furcal pushed him aside, hitting .267/.313/.323 with one home run – his only all season. The 2010 season saw Brendan Ryan come to the plate a remarkable 482 times while playing shortstop. I say remarkable because he hit .223/.279/.294, good for a .573 OPS, third lowest in baseball. Not even his stellar glove should have kept him in the lineup that often.

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As more trades, free agent signings and roster moves happen, I’ll continue to look at the resulting impact on prospects for the 2012 season. In this edition…

Why the Cubs’ acquisition of David DeJesus is a good thing, whether Jonathan Papelbon killed the fantasy value of a Phillies’ relief prospect and how owners are going to wind up hating Chien-Ming Wang.

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You’ve probably noticed by now that some of the gentlemen of Rotographs got together in their virtual forum to pull off a 12-team keeper draft over the weekend. Due to other obligations, the lists of participating managers didn’t include yours truly, so hopefully that will give me a bit more objectivity as I make a few observations.

I’ve been the resident third base scribe for the past year, so I’ll dedicate this short post to some of the more interesting picks involving the hot corner.

It didn’t take long for the debate to get brewing as Evan Longoria was selected as the overall #4 pick followed by Jose Bautista, overall #6. Longoria, coming off an injury-shortened season had an usually low batting average at .244, no doubt dragged down by miserable fortune (.239 BABIP). He has been a pretty remarkably consistent player, demonstrating the ability to hit for good average with a take-it-to-the-bank 30 HR’s and 100 RBI profile, assuming you toss out his career low 11% HR/FB from 2010. Bill James currently projects a .275/.370/.535, 35 HR, 116 RBI, 101 run season for Longoria, which probably earns him a #4 overall slot.

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Before we get into the fourth of what will be five tiers of keeper closer rankings, we’ve got two pieces of business to attend to. One is Rafael Betancourt, who inherited the Rockies’ ninth inning job following the trade of Huston Street to the Padres. I have him in Tier Two of my holds rankings, and he’d very likely fit into Tier Two of the closer rankings, probably right behind Heath Bell.

Secondly, and more importantly, I completely whiffed on Joakim Soria. Left him out of rankings entirely. That’s obviously a pretty severe screw-up on my part, and I’m not going to make any excuses. Flat out whiffed. Anyway, Soria had the worst season of his career in 2011 (4.03 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 60.1 IP) as shoulder problems gave him some trouble, but I think we all expect him to right the ship next season. Soria still struck out a ton of batters (8.95 K/9) and walked a few (2.54 BB/9), he just ran into a case of homeritis (1.04 HR/9). Hopefully a winter of rest and a healthy wing allows him to keep the ball in the park a little more in 2012.

I’ve included Zach Sanders’ end of season player rankings for reference, but they weren’t the only criteria used to create the rankings or delineate the tiers.

Tier One (link)
Craig Kimbrel
John Axford
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera

Tier Two (link)
Ryan Madson
Joakim Soria (late add)
Brian Wilson
J.J. Putz
Jose Valverde
Heath Bell
Rafael Betancourt (late add)

Tier Three (link)
Drew Storen
Joel Hanrahan
Kyle Farnsworth
Carlos Marmol
Sergio Santos
Jordan Walden

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Most of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ offseason moves have been met with a snicker. Rod Barajas? At least we’ll get to see the pierogie race earlier, with him getting out so quickly. Clint Barmes? Isn’t that a pseudonym for “Expensive Ronny Cedeno?” The Erik Bedard signing seems fit for ridicule, too. Looks like Charlie Morton will have a rehab buddy.

But that last one’s not really fair. Pittsburgh paid little for Bedard’s services — just $4.5 million, with $500K in possible incentives — and he’s coming off his best, healthiest season since he finished fifth in Cy Young balloting with the Orioles back in 2007. The Bucs went for upside with Bedard instead of giving similar dough to the Chien-Ming Wangs and Aaron Harangs of the world, and you should do the same even if it means absorbing a few potshots from your league buddies.

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Chris Parmelee

Chris Parmelee started 20 of the last 21 at 1B for the 2011 Twins by filling in for the injured Justin Morneau (55 games at 1B) and Joe Mauer (16 games at 1B). Both Morneau and Mauer are huge injury risks for the 2012 season and have a good chance to end up on the DL at some point during the season. Chris Parmelee looks like, for now, he will be the backup 1B going into the season with Michael Cuddyer still a free agent.

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We got the RotoGraphs team together for a mock dynasty draft, the results of which I believe you can see here. (Just remember that Brandon Wood is a placeholder for Nolan Arenado, Anthony Vasquez = Danny Hultzen, Hector Gomez = Jurickson Profar, and Anthony Slama = Trevor Bauer.)

My team seems strong and young, at least to me. My core infield is Dustin Pedroia, Mike Morse, Brett Lawrie and Elvis Andrus, and I love starting the draft with the infield at the premium positions. Got some love in the outfield for my Jay Bruce pick earlier today, and even though I waited longer than anyone not named Podhorzer for starting pitchers, I ended up with Michael Pineda, Dan Hudson and Ricky Romero. Maybe I’ll write about all this in the future.

But maybe the most interesting thing, at least today, is that I took Ryan Braun with my second-round pick in this dynasty league mock.

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The first base position is starting to stretch a little thin, but we still have a couple of interesting young hitters and a pair of veterans that may or may not have something left in the tank in Tier Four. A few of these guys have multi-position eligibility as well, and that’s always a plus. Zach Sanders’ end of season player values were included for reference, but they vary pretty wildly this deep into the rankings. Trust me, they weren’t the only criteria used here.

Tier One (link)
Miguel Cabrera
Joey Votto
Albert Pujols
Prince Fielder
Adrian Gonzalez

Tier Two (link)
Mark Teixeira
Paul Konerko
Eric Hosmer
Michael Morse
Freddie Freeman

Tier Three (link)
Carlos Pena
Mark Trumbo
Ryan Howard
Ike Davis
Gaby Sanchez

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Tracking average draft position (ADP) can be an incredibly useful tool in preparing for your upcoming fantasy drafts.  It’s most helpful in standard snake-style drafts as you’re able to see, on average, where a particular player is taken; whether you can wait a few rounds to grab him or if you have to act quicker than you thought to pick him up.  Obviously it’s less helpful if you’re in an auction, but it does help you see which players are, for the most part, off people’s radars and can be stolen late in your auction for a cheaper price tag.

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Last night, the RotoGraphs crew got together and conducted our first mock draft of the season. The draft, held at Mock Draft Central, was a standard 5X5 keeper/dynasty league draft. Rosters requirements were as follows: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, CI, MI, UTIL, 9 P, 5 BENCH. Throughout the week, we’ll have articles analyzing the draft. I’ll kick things off with my thoughts about the first couple of rounds.

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