Nyjer Morgan (Yahoo: 18 percent, ESPN: 19 percent owned)

There are plenty of players out there who are known more for their antics than for their production, and Morgan may well be one of them, but when his alter egos have alter egos, it’s hard to blame people for failing to dig deeper than that. However, if you’re one of the people who follow T-Plush on twitter, but not in the box score, you’re missing out.

Morgan is wrapping up a career year and has become a much better rounded player than he was in previous seasons. He’s stolen far fewer bases than in the past — just 12 this season compared to 42 in 2009 and 34 in 2010 — but he’s supplementing the steals he is getting with a .313 BA and a career best 4 HR. While his 12 steals are something of a low water mark, he has grabbed six since in the last three weeks, so there is some concrete hope that he’ll be a bigger asset in that category going forward.

While the return of Carlos Gomez could spell reduced time for Morgan, I’m less than concerned. Morgan isn’t a huge defensive liability, so the switch from Gomez to him isn’t a simple defense for offense trade; it’s a big step down at the plate for a small gain in the field. I could see Gomez stealing a few PAs a week as a late-inning defensive replacement, but the Brewers would be foolish to put the two in a straight platoon.

Dee Gordon (Yahoo: 9 percent owned, ESPN: 14 percent owned)

September call-ups are a mixed bag as far as fantasy goes, some of the players called up are worth a speculative grab, others are like ackee: toxically unripe. Though he is a rookie, Gordon isn’t a September callup in the traditional sense; his return to the Dodgers was from the disabled list, not from Albuquerque. He certainly looks healthy once again as in the six games since he returned from the DL, Gordon has 12 hits and boasts a line of .462/.462/.615.

At this point in the month, anything said about a player like Gordon should set off huge bells in your mind because of the sample size. His overall 2011 line of .277/.288/.336 is probably closer to his real talent level, but that doesn’t mean that Gordon isn’t worth your time. While his performance at the plate makes him a prime candidate for regression, his performance on the basepaths is intriguing. He’s already swiped four bags since Sept. 1, a trait, unlike his batting average, which is confirmed by his previous time in the majors.

The Dodgers are clearly keen on utilizing Gordon’s speed, as well they should be, and he should get plenty of chances to steal from the leadoff position. While he’ll have fewer opportunities as his on-base percentage rejoins reality, it seems likely that Gordon will still rack up a decent total for the rest of the month, provided he continues to get the green light.

If you need stolen bases badly, Gordon is likely to outperform Morgan. However, if you’re looking to replace an ineffective or injured player, I’d rather grab Morgan, whose production across categories seems more likely to stick around past the next week than Gordon’s does.

When it comes to looking ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position, there’s just no slowing us down. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catcher, First Basemen, Second Basemen

Time to get to the third basemen.

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When the FanGraphs meet-up took place in San Francisco on Tuesday night and the group was sitting around the TV hanging on each and every pitch thrown by Stephen Strasburg, inspiration hit for today’s Would You Rather column.  Proven talent versus monumental upside.  Seasoned veteran versus young upstart.  Future Hall of Famer versus….future Hall of Famer?  There are a lot of pros on each side and very few cons.  So if it were up to you…

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So, after missing last month due to a wild road trip in bison land, I am back with an updated set of rankings for your perusal. I don’t think I ever clarified how I decide to move players or maintain rankings, but it is basically strictly looking forward. If you drafted now for the rest of the year, what should the order be? I don’t care what a pitcher’s current ERA is, to me that’s just some random number the ball landed on on a roulette wheel. The skills and projected future skills are much more important and this philosophy is reflected in the rankings.

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– Even though I get to watch him almost any time I want, it’s still strange to see Mike Carp take home the AL Rookie of the Month Award (presented by, who else, Gillette). Looking toward next year, Carp’s BABIP may be high, but he tends to absolutely crush the ball when he’s at the dish. He started to flash a little bit of power last year in the hitter friendly PCL, but he really crushed the ball in AAA earlier this season, and it may have finally translated over to big league success. If I were to predict a line for next season, I’d like to think Carp could hit at least .270 while smacking 25 homers out of the park and posting a league average walk rate. Plus, if you can only draft players with facial hair of some kind, then Carp is eligible for your roster.

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Today I am looking at available 2nd basemen (<10% owned) that could help a team in the last few weeks of the season.

Note: All owned numbers are from ESPN.

Scott Sizemore (6.7% owned) – Scott began the season with the Tigers before getting traded to the A’s. Since the trade, he has seen regular time at 3B. He looks to be a decent option for a team needing help at 2B (or 3B).

Scott has hit for decent power this season with 9 home runs in only 360 PA, with 2 to 3 coming in every month he has played. In September so far, he already had 2 home runs to go with a 0.294 AVG.

If you believe in going with the current hot hitter, Sizemore is your man. In the last 7 games, he has a 0.294/0.400/0.647 slash line. The improvement is not from an inflated BABIP (0.231), but instead from cutting his K% down from around 25% to 10%.

Also, Scott is qualified at both 2B and 3B. The extra versatility helps with maintaining a full active roster in the last couple of weeks. He will probably not be able to maintain his current increase in AVG, but for players owned in less than 10% of all league, Scott is probably the best 2B available.

Jimmy Paredes (2.1% owned) – Jimmy has been the starting 3B (2B qualified for this season) for the Astros since the 1st of August. He has produced a triple slash line of 0.300/0.336/0.433. On the surface he looks like a good option, but his stats are a bit inflated.

He currently has a 0.400 BABIP for the season. This BABIP will not be maintained (a season’s best value is usually around 0.380). Besides a BABIP adjustment lowering his average, he strikes out more than 26% of the time.

The key for Jimmy is that he is starting everyday and accumulating counting stats, no matter how small. If an owner’s AVG is set in the rankings for the season, it may be best to add a hitter like Jimmy. He is not a good player, but he is available and playing everyday (no platoon) and that is all some teams need in a player.

Trevor Plouffe (4.2% owned) is another option and Dan Wade recently wrote about him here at Rotographs.

The second — and last — regular season edition of the NL Starting Pitcher ranks is here. The top remains largely the same, but the bottom has changed quite a bit. The rankings are for the rest of the season — hence no Jordan Zimmermann — and are tiered to AFI’s top 100 film villains with a few of my favorites thrown in.

The Dr. Hannibal Lector Tier
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Clayton Kershaw
Cole Hamels
Tim Lincecum

The best of the best, these pitchers have anchored real and fantasy rotations all year long. The Phillies haven’t said anything about skipping starts to keep Halladay et al. fresh for the postseason, but the possibility of that does make me a tick nervous. The fact that none of their trio is a particularly young arm bodes well for owners.

The Darth Vader Tier
Madison Bumgarner
Matt Cain
Ian Kennedy
Matt Garza
Daniel Hudson

There’s no such concern about skipping starts in this group. The West is the NL’s closest divisional race and until the gap widens, both the Diamondbacks and Giants are going to putting their best team out there, youngish starters included. Garza owns a top-10 WAR and a top-3 K-rate, yet I can’t help but feel he’s been largely forgotten this season; he could be a bargain on draft day next year.

The Sauron Tier
Zack Greinke
Tim Hudson
Stephen Strasburg
Brandon Beachy
Yovani Gallardo

Strasburg looked fantastic on Tuesday, but the Nats haven’t thrown off the reins just yet. He’d be higher, but pitch counts will hurt his ability to get wins and could make for a bad line if he has one really rough inning. Greinke is still giving up more runs than it looks like he ought to be, but the majority of his remaining starts look to be at Miller Park, where he’s been nearly unbeatable. I may be a bit bullish on Beachy, but his strikeout numbers have been good and, as one of the few healthy arms the Braves had right now, they aren’t going to clip his innings.

The HAL 9000 Tier
Roy Oswalt
Johnny Cueto
Chris Carpenter
Mat Latos
Javier Vazquez

Oswalt makes the big jump here, proving that he’s healthy and effective in returning from his back injury. Cueto’s WHIP and ERA both went up in August, but his strikeouts rose as well, so he doesn’t drop as far as he might have. Vazquez is obviously the wild card here, but he had a fantastic August and those strikeout numbers are for real.

The Harry Lime Tier
Vance Worley
Cory Luebke
Shaun Marcum
Ryan Dempster
Anibal Sanchez

Worley hasn’t lost time since Oswalt’s return, and he’s the least likely of the Phillies starters to be skipped during the playoff prep, unless they’re going to try to transition him into a bullpen role for the playoffs; it’s something to keep an eye on. Luebke could be a tier up, but I’m worried about fatigue with him. He’s walking more batters than he did in July and while I still like him, it’s enough to just tip him one run lower.

The Joker Tier
Hiroki Kuroda
Edwin Jackson
Chad Billingsley
Tim Stauffer
Ricky Nolasco

Apart from his shelling on Aug. 3, Jackson has been pitching well for the Cardinals, dropping his ERA in six consecutive starts. I must confess, I thought a move to the NL would do his strikeout numbers some good, but it hasn’t helped as much as I’d hoped. Nolasco seems to be fading as the season wraps up; he’s still performing passably, but he’s been pretty pedestrian of late.

The Auric Goldfinger Tier
Wandy Rodriguez
Ryan Vogelsong
Kyle Lohse
R.A. Dickey
John Lannan

Rodriguez had an up-and-down month of August, but his lows weren’t terrible and he posted solid strikeouts while staying Houston. Vogelsong’s calling card was his low ERA, which rose a bit in August. He’s still turning in solid outings, but he’s no longer as compelling as he was a month ago. As much as I love the knuckleballer, Dickey scares me. He had a strong August, it must be said, but I’m stuck feeling like the other shoe is going to drop.

The Agent Smith Tier
Ted Lilly
Josh Collmenter
Randy Wells
Jaime Garcia
Chris Narveson

After what has been a rough year for Wells, he turned it on August and had a solid month. He’s still allowing far too many HR and striking out too few to rise much higher than this, but if you’re digging deep, he’s been playable of late. I’ve mentioned my expectation that both Lilly and Garcia will regress already and I’m sticking by that.

The Hans Gruber Tier
Aaron Harang
Dillon Gee
Jhoulys Chacin
Derek Lowe
Henry Sosa

Chacin has already surpassed his career high in innings, and doesn’t show signs of slowing down, which concerns me not only for the end of this year, but also for next year. I’d be higher on Lowe — and more tolerant of his poorer turns — if he was going deeper in his starts. As it is, there’s just too little upside with him to make it worth sweating through starts like he had on Monday. Gee has been ebbing and flowing between good and terrible starts, allowing 1, 8, 1, and 6 ER in his last four outings. He provides solid value when he’s good, but the downside is a severe punishment.

The Major General Donald McClintock Tier
Randy Wolf
Mike Leake
Bud Norris
Esmil Rogers

Like Gee, Wolf split his time between great and execrable, but Wolf had fewer strikeouts to soften the blow of his more Mr. Hyde-like outings. The book on Norris in August is the same as it ever was: too many baserunners, too many runs, but a very nice strikeout rate. Expect the same in September from both him and Rogers.

The Wicked Witch of the East Tier
Jonathon Niese
Jair Jurrjens
Johan Santana
Tommy Hanson

I think there’s a fair chance that none of these four pitches in the regular season, which makes them virtually valueless. Unlike the guys below them, there’s at least a chance, so if you’ve got the free DL spot, you can hold on to them and hope. However, if you’re in a roster crunch, you’re probably safe dropping any one of them.

Off the list:
Jordan Zimmermann
Jason Marquis
Livan Hernandez
Carlos Zambrano
Jonathan Sanchez
Paul Maholm

Hernandez and Zimmermann made their exit from the rotation gracefully, Zambrano less so, but most of the rest of these guys fell out of the rankings due to a season-ending injury. If one of these guys is still on your roster in redraft, set them free, they won’t be back this year.

The inaugural season of Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball here at FanGraphs is coming to a close, and hopefully you’ve enjoyed the experience as much as I have. Deep rosters (40-man) with minor leaguers and 60-day DL maneuverability … it’s great. I even have Yu Darvish stashed on my bench (cost $1 on auction day, $2 next year to keep), hoping he’ll anchor my pitching staff next season.

Anyway, I’ve long been a sucker for trying to find value in middle relievers in fantasy, but in traditional 5×5 formats they’re almost useless. A points league is another matter, especially those based on linear weights like Ottoneu. If you’re unfamiliar with the linear weights scoring, you can see it here. It’s not a surprise that some top middle relievers are worth as much, if not more than some closers, but how much? Let’s look at the top producers for each demographic, starting with the closers. Just some advance warning, these point totals do not include last night’s games.

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Time to re-visit those monthly rankings, again.  As always, the criteria used for these is as follows:

1.  Current performance level
2.  Expected performance for rest of season
3.  Value based on standard 5×5 categories (avg over OBP)

One note, despite the fact that it is late in the season, we are not accounting for keeper value right now.  We are staying within the parameters of this season alone.  Keeper league rankings will be done at season’s end.  Injured players remain on the list at the bottom so we can just see who was up there from start to finish.  That being said, here’s how the catching position looks right now….

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Fantasy trade deadlines have a tendency to come and go unnoticed, but I refused to let that happen in my ottoneu FanGraphs Points league. After mostly letting my team do it’s own thing this year without many roster moves, I opted to make some aggressive offers at the deadline in an attempt to shape my roster heading into the offseason period. I ended up completing three deals, each of them interesting and a little unique in their own right.

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