Let’s take a look at a pair of two young AL East players that can provide a quick boost for your team down the stretch…

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In the spirit of trying to help and really give the public what they want, this ongoing series does, in fact, take requests.  A few pairings have been mentioned in previous posts and have been discussed in the comments sections, so today’s was pulled off of Twitter (feel free to submit yours to @rotobuzzguy) and brought here for discussion.  It’s more upside vs proven talent, but this time we’re talking speed….and a lot of it!

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Good things come to those who wait. If that’s true, then Matt Moore better be really really good. Even though Moore was regarded as one of the top — if not the top — pitching prospect in the minors, the Tampa Bay Rays waited until September to call up their top prospect. Owners have waited all season to use utilize Moore, and now that he’s finally arrived, it’s time to determine how much value he can provide to fantasy teams going forward. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2011 season has not even ended yet, but I am already excited by the variety of players I may potentially roster next year at a discount. Many owners come into their drafts with a target list of players that they are hoping to acquire. To be honest, I do not understand this at all for single-season leaguers. All I am interested in is value and do not really care what name is attached to my projected stats and resulting valuation. Without getting further off topic, I did a quick sort by SIERA and was surprised to see Jonathon Niese’s name ranked 18th, right behind Tim Lincecum.

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– Ian Kinsler has decided that now is the time to turn on the jets and get going before the playoffs start. In a little over a month, the second baseman has hit ten homers and stolen a couple bases, all while hitting a contextually low .278 thanks to a poor BABIP. Sometime this week, Kinsler will set a personal best in games played, yet his uncharacteristically healthy season has gone mostly unnoticed. His batted ball times are a little worrisome, but I’d like to think he could be a .270/20/20 guy next season, and that’s assuming he misses time. Add in his production if healthy or replacement level production when he’s on the DL, and you have a very good fantasy second baseman.

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Here is the latest update to Week 24 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Greinke, Lilly, Danks, Willis, Detwiler, Hand

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Cueto, Peavy, Eveland, Wang.

Let’s take a look at John Danks. On May 29th, Danks allowed 9 ER in 4 IP to send his ERA to 5.25 and his record to 0-8. Since then he’s 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA. Over those last 13 games, Danks has 76 Ks and 17 BB in 81.2 IP.

For the season, Danks has a 3.77 xFIP, which is the lowest mark he’s ever recorded. His ERA is now down to 4.09, higher than what it has been recently, but essentially equal to his lifetime 3.98 mark. It’s been a tremendous in-season turnaround.

Danks pitched okay the first month of the season, with four Quality Starts in six games with 36 Ks in 39 IP. It was May when Danks really hit the skids. In five starts that month, he had a 6.89 ERA with 14 BB, 10 Ks and 6 HR in 31.1 IP. In the first two months of the season, Danks allowed 11 HR in 70.1 IP. He gave up 84 fly balls in that span and had a 13.10 HR/FB rate.

In his last 13 games, Danks has surrendered 6 HR in 81.2 IP. He’s allowed 85 fly balls in that span for a 7.06 HR/FB rate. For the season Danks now has a 10.1 HR/FB rate, almost exactly equal to his career mark of 10.0.

We also see that Danks had trouble with his cutter early in the year. In 2009, Danks’ cutter was 19.1 runs above average while in 2010 it was 10.8 runs above average. In the month of May, Danks’ cutter had a -2.8 run value. Starting in June, Danks has had a positive run value with his cutter each month of the season.

Danks has a home game against Detroit and a road game against Kansas City this week. He has an ERA two runs higher on the road this year, with 76 IP both at home and on the road. But Danks’ road xFIP is 3.40, compared to a 4.13 home xFIP.

The White Sox lefty was knocked around in his last two outings, including a road game in Detroit, which has prompted fantasy owners to own him in just 51.8 percent of ESPN leagues and to start him in just 47 percent of CBS Sports leagues.

This year Danks is 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA against the Tigers in three games and 16.2 IP. Against the Royals he’s 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two games and 13 IP. Combined, he has 34 Ks in 29.2 IP against these teams.

Trading is an important part of most fantasy leagues. With the exception of a few leagues, most notably NFBC formats, owners are free to swap players with their fellow league mates throughout the season until some imposed trading deadline. Many fantasy owners believe that skillful trading, as one component of in-season roster management, is the biggest factor of success. But after passing the deadline in my one league that I commish, I am left wondering: is trading dead?

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Hey guys! Gotta pop in and out today, but wanted to be around in a time of need. Throw a question at me, preferably one that’s about chat-sized, and I’ll try to answer it some time today.

Happy Friday!

On Monday, I introduced my Luck stat for pitchers and hitters. Today, I will look into some improvements to the hitter portion of the stat. Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 24.

Brandon Beachy – After getting lit up in his first start after the All-Star break, Beachy has gone nine starts with a .267 ERA and a 1.019 WHIP. He continues to strike batters out at an impressive clip, with a 10.17 K/9 in that span. This week he gets two home starts and Beachy has done a very nice job keeping the ball in the park at Turner Field. In road games, he’s allowed 11 HR in 64 IP while at home it’s 5 HR in 62 IP. The matchups are favorable, as he goes up against FLA and NYM, so make sure Beachy is active.

Bruce Chen – While the matchups are favorable for Chen this week, with home starts against MIN and CHW, he has been beat up in his last two starts, as he’s allowed 10 ER in his last 11.1 IP. The common narrative is that after bouncing around for a number of years, Chen has finally learned how to pitch, evidenced by his 22-14 record the past two years for a poor KC team. But in those years, Chen has a 4.79 and 4.70 xFIP, right in line with his lifetime 4.71 xFIP. Put him on your bench.

Dillon Gee – At the end of June, Gee was 8-1 with a 3.32 ERA. Since then he’s gone 4-4 with a 5.89 ERA. He’s surrendered 12 HR in 62.2 IP in that span and has just a 1.53 K/BB ratio. Gee’s allowed 4 or more ER in 6 of his last 11 starts. Regression has caught up to Gee, who now has a 4.42 ERA and a 4.46 xFIP. Gee helped keep the Mets in the fringe of the Wild Card race the first three months of the season, but he’s not worth starting at this point of the season.

Aaron Harang – In his last four games, Harang has recorded fourth straight Quality Starts, doing a nice job of righting his season after he hit a mini-rough patch just after the All-Star break. In those four games, Harang has 24 Ks in 26 IP. He’s pitching well and has favorable matchups this week, as he squares off against Eric Surkamp and Joe Saunders, so make sure Harang is in your starting lineup.

Rick Porcello – With a 4.87 ERA, the tendency is to dismiss Porcello’s 13 Wins. But his xFIP is nearly a run lower at 4.03 and Porcello has done a nice job of improving his walk rate in the second half of the season, as he’s allowed just 9 BB in 59.1 IP. However, he’s been a bit unlucky in both his BABIP (.325) and HR rate (14.29) since the All-Star break. The other thing to keep in mind with Porcello is how he dominates RHB (.633 OPS) and struggles versus LHB (.881 OPS). He faces CHW and OAK this week, with neither team being a lefty-hitting powerhouse. Get Porcello in the lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 24 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, F. Hernandez, Cain, Hamels, Price, Cueto, Masterson, G. Gonzalez, Oswalt, Billingsley, Dempster, Niemann, Lohse, Harrison, Peavy, Dickey, Saunders, Moscoso, Myers, Britton, Surkamp, Pineiro, Eveland, Wakefield, Lincoln, Wang, Rogers, Volstad, Lopez.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 22 pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to start. W, 8 Ks, 5.73 ER, 1.636 WHIP, 11 IP, 7 ER
Cecil – Advised to sit. 7 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 12 IP, 8 ER
Davis – Advised to start. W, 8 Ks, 7.36 ERA, 1.909 WHIP, 11 IP, 9 ER
Fister – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 1.17 ERA, 0.522 WHIP, 7.2 IP, 1 ER
Kuroda – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6 IP, 4 ER