Archive for August, 2011

Week 20 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 20 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Halladay, Shields, Millwood, Hensley, Wang.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Lee, Hanson, Vazquez, Davis, Detwiler.

Let’s take a look at Chien-Ming Wang. He’s pitched just 137 innings between 2008-2010 as he has battled foot and shoulder problems. Some feared that his career was over but Wang has indeed made it back to the majors and has three starts under his belt this year. He has a respectable 3.60 ERA, but he has allowed six unearned runs so far and 12 runs in 15 IP.

But before we give up on Wang, let’s look at his three outings start by start:

7/29 – 4 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 4 FB, 7 GB, 6 LD
8/3 – 5 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 2 ER, 5 FB, 14 GB, 3 LD
8/9 — 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 FB, 11 GB, 1 LD

His 2.40 BB/9, 58.2 GB% and 7.7 HR/FB all match up quite well with his 2005-2008 heyday, when he won 19 games in the two years he made 30+ starts. He was always a pitcher who outperformed his xFIP and this year it’s even more dramatic due to his virtual complete lack of Ks (1.80 K/9).

However, Wang lives and dies not by his ability to strike batters out but by his penchant for getting batters to beat the ball in the ground. In his last two starts, he’s induced 25 GB and allowed 9 FB in 11 IP. Yes, these are very small sample sizes. But it is still very encouraging to see him doing what he did best when he was healthy.

With matchups against the Reds and Phillies this week, two of the bottom four teams in the NL in GB%, Wang may have his work cut out for him. But as a guy likely available on the waiver wire, he’s a much more interesting pick than either Kevin Millwood or Clay Hensley.


No, Really, Add Yuniesky Betancourt

Let me preface this by saying that Yuniesky Betancourt is not a good player. He’s been worth 2.8 WAR in 3475 plate appearances. That’s horrendous. In purely fantasy terms he’s never been particularly good either. He doesn’t hit for power, or run, or hit for a high average, or get on base. But, because he can play shortstop, not very well mind you, teams have given him over 500 plate appearances a season five years running.

He began this season just like any other, i.e. badly. In May he hit .176/.200/.289. Things started to come around in June as his OPS for the month ended at .690. Then it was summer time and Yuni was livin’ easy. He had a great July, for him, hitting .299 with a .752 OPS and 13 runs and 13 RBI. He’s carried that over into July as well as his .953 OPS would attest. To make it simple, over the last 30 days he’s hit .380 with 3 HR, 20 RBI and even 2 SB. Only four other shortstops have been better than Yuni over that time: Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Asdrubal Cabrera and J.J. Hardy. Those four are owned in over 70 percent of leagues while our man Yuni sits at just 28 percent. He’s hit so well that even noted fantasy writer Jason Collette traded Jason Motte for him a few weeks ago.

We all know that the shortstop position is as shallow as a kiddie pool. Any unexpected production is welcomed with open arms. He’s not likely to keep this up until the rest of the season, but if you have a void at shortstop, or own a slumping player like Elvis Andrus or Alexei Ramirez, it’s worth overlooking the name and trying to cash in on the hot streak while you can. Another player in a similar situation to Yuni’s is Cliff Pennington. He’s owned in just seven percent of leagues but has hit .342/2HR/13RBI/2SB over the past month. Unlike Betancourt he’s been a good hitter relative to his position in his short career, so it may be more than a fluke.

Betancourt may not get many more hot streaks like this. Do him a favor and pick him up. He’s been a punching bag for so long that I’m sure he’d appreciate seeing his ownership percentage tick up over the 30% barrier.


RotoGraphs Chat – 8/12/11

Hola! Eno Sarris will be here at 1230, but the chat window will be open shortly after noon so you can leave your questions in the queueueue.


Rotographs Reader Survey

RotoGraphs is looking for information on the types of leagues that our readers are in order to more specialize the content. Feel free to submit information on one or as many leagues you belong. Any information would be greatly appreciated. Goto the following link to answer the questions. Thanks for your time and we will publish the results soon.

Link to RotoGraphs Reader Survey


Two-Start Pitchers: Week 20

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20.

Chad Billingsley – Consistency has been hard to come by for Billingsley in 2011. Yes, he’s had some stretches where he’s run off multiple wins in a row, but those times were not backed with strong pitching. And here recently it’s been hot and cold for the Dodger righty. The one constant seemingly for Billingsley has been poor results on the road. In his last seven road starts, he’s given up 4, 4, 6, 0, 3, 5 and 3 ER over 45 IP for a 5.00 ERA. For the season he has a 5.53 road ERA, so it’s not like these last seven are out of character for him. Billingsley has a 6.59 K/9 in road games and allows more HR on the road. This week he squares off at MIL and at COL, two really good HR parks. Give him the week off if you can.

A.J. Burnett – It has been over six weeks since Burnett notched his last win and he has not been particularly impressive in defeat, either, with a 6.00 ERA in his last seven starts. One of the big problems in that stretch is that he has allowed 8 HR in 42 IP. The good news for Burnett this week is that he squares off against KC and MIN, two of the worst teams in the league in hitting HR. He’s also struggled with his command recently and the Twins have the fewest walks of any AL team. Both of these starts are on the road, which likely works in his favor as the Bronx faithful are not overly fond of Burnett at the moment. Put him in your lineup this week.

Gio Gonzalez – In his last four starts, Gonzalez is 0-4 with an 8.44 ERA. In that span, he has a 2.109 WHIP. Gonzalez’ BB/9 has definitely been a problem (6.3) but no one is going to succeed with the .433 BABIP that Gonzalez has during that stretch. So, is there an injury or is it a slump? Gonzalez also has a 9.7 K/9 in that stretch and his 10.0 SwStr% is right at his 9.7 percent mark for the season. It does not seem like an injury and there is no discussion of any health problems. He has two home starts this week and Gonzalez is 7-2 with a 2.21 ERA at the Coliseum. Also his home FIP is 1.07 beneath his road FIP. Keep Gonzalez active this week despite his recent horrible pitching.

Mike Leake – A 3.0 K/BB ratio and five Quality Starts in his last five games have not translated into a great record for Leake, who is 2-3 in that span. He has a nifty 2.53 ERA in his last 32 IP and a normal .316 BABIP. This week he squares off against the slumping Pirates (3-13 in their last 16 games) and Nationals (7-11). Leake is pitching well and he has favorable matchups, so make sure he is active this week.

Cory Luebke – A high pitch count kept Luebke to five innings in his last outing but that was hardly a surprise, as he notched 4 BB and 8 Ks. The walks were out of character but the strikeouts are what fantasy owners have come to expect from the converted reliever. Since moving into the rotation on June 26th, Luebke has a 9.3 K/9. His 2.98 ERA as a SP exactly matches his xFIP. Luebke is stretched out as a SP and has thrown between 100-110 pitches in each of his last seven outings. He has struggled somewhat at home (3.42 xFIP) but he faces two teams from the East Coast and there’s no reason not to have him in your lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Gallardo, Lester, T. Hudson, Ogando, Jimenez, Bumgarner, Hanson, Holland, A. Sanchez, Pineda, Harang, Liriano, Porcello, Wolf, J. Sanchez, Lilly, Dickey, Vazquez, Collmenter, McDonald, Westbrook, Davis, Blackburn, Alvarez, Moscoso, Hunter, Mills, Duffy, Chatwood, Paulino, G. Richards, Detwiler, Lopez, Sosa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 18 pitchers and how they fared.

Danks – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 6.00 ERA, 1.667 WHIP, 6 IP, 4 ER
Lackey – Advised to sit. W, 10 Ks, 5.68 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 12.2 IP, 8 ER
Peavy – Advised to sit. W, 10 Ks, 1.80 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 15 IP, 3 ER
E. Santana – Advised to start. 2 W, 14 Ks, 1.04 ERA, 1.039 WHIP, 17.1 IP, 2 ER
Vazquez – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 13 IP, 2 ER


Ankiel, Encarnacion, and Kubel: Waiver Wire

Rick Ankiel (Yahoo: 6 percent owned, ESPN: 15 percent owned)

After an extremely pedestrian first half, Ankiel seems to have found his groove at the top of the Nationals’ batting order. He has hit .290/.342/.536 since the All-Star break, but has really turned it on after the trade deadline, hitting .308/.357/.692 with 4 HR since August 1. Of the 18 games left this month, the Nationals play 10 at home — where Ankiel has hit six of his seven home runs — plus another six in hitter-friendly Cincinnati and Philadelphia, giving him a good chance to continue his torrid month.

If you can spare the extra bench spot, Ankiel has large enough platoon split to be worth acting on. His OPS drops nearly .200 points against lefties, which makes him look far less interesting than he is against righties. If you can’t platoon him, he’s still worth a grab, especially in NL-Only, but temper your expectations when he faces Cole Hamels.

Edwin Encarnacion (Yahoo: 29 percent owned, ESPN: 78 percent owned)

Right from the outset, if you play in a league that counts defense, Encarnacion might not be your best pick-up. E-5 isn’t his nickname for no reason. Encarnacion owns one of the AL’s five highest OPS marks in the second half thanks to a line of .361/.475/.627 line, but he managed to find even a higher gear over the last 10 days, hitting .423/.559/.654 in August. The one knock on his month so far is that he has just one RBI and that came on his only home run so far. However, it’s almost unthinkable that he wouldn’t start driving in his teammates if he stays this hot for a while longer.

Encarnacion’s BABIP this month is .435, so he’s definitely finding the holes in the defense, but his yearly mark is an entirely unremarkable .307. So, while I think some regression is likely, it isn’t the sword of Damocles hanging over his head. Toronto plays a fairly favorable schedule the rest of the month, but they get the Red Sox and Yankees for 11 games in September, so, unless the divisional and wild card races are already sewn up early, Encarnacion could face a tough slate of pitching. Having an alternative in mind if he starts to struggle is wise.

Jason Kubel (Yahoo: 51 percent owned, ESPN: 93 percent owned)

On production alone, I like Kubel a lot. In the 18 games since he returned from the DL, Kubel has hit .319/.382/.565 with 4 HR and 13 RBI, which is more than respectable from a player with his paltry ownership. He’s been one of the Twins’ most consistent hitters over the last nine games, hitting .387/.406/.774 since August began — in fact, his 774 SLG would be the team’s fifth highest OPS this month.

While I think his consistent contributions keep him in the lineup, with Justin Morneau rejoining the team on Friday, the Twins are simply overfilled at three of the four corner positions and Kubel’s not exactly an option at third base. Jim Thome is rightly going to get plenty of playing time in his quest for his 600th home run, keeping Kubel from being the full-time DH, and Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Ben Revere, and Kubel are all competing for time in the outfield corners — especially since Alexi Casilla’s return means that they won’t simply stash Cuddyer at 2B to alleviate some of the pressure.

For the team, it’s a nice problem to have, but it’s really just a mess for owners. I think his production is going to be good enough going forward to be worth the possibility that he may not play every day, but do keep a close eye on the lineup, especially until Thome hits his 600th.


Adrian Gonzalez’s Power Outage

Adrian Gonzalez has been pretty much everything the Red Sox expected him to be and then some after sending three top prospects (and Eric Patterson) to the Padres to acquire the now-29-year-old slugger over the winter. Gonzalez leads all of MLB in batting average (.348) and runs driven in (92), and is tops among big league first baseman with 5.1 WAR. There is a slight problem though (and a really hesitate to call this a problem), and it’s the lack of homeruns, especially recently.

Since the middle of June, the arbitrary end point of June 18th, Gonzalez has hit just three home runs. Three in 212 PA. He hit three homers in the 22 PA immediately prior to that, and 15 in his first 311 PA of the season. It’s kinda hard to believe that he’s being out-homered by Jacoby Ellsbury (19-18) while out-tripling his speedy teammate (3-2) this season. When you look at Adrian’s day-by-day batting ball profile, it’s easy to see why the big flies have been scarce for the last month and a half…

Gonzalez has stopped hitting fly balls, basically. His season ground ball rate is 46.7%, easily the highest of his career. He had been in the high-30% range the last two years. The high ground ball rate helps explain his MLB leading .389 BABIP (.310 career coming into 2011), which has resulted in the MLB best batting average. Let’s look at the spray charts, beginning with his first 311 PA (before this recent homer drought started)…

It’s a pretty standard Adrian Gonzalez spray chart. The majority of the fly balls are out to left field, and the majority of the ground balls rolled over to the right side of the infield. You can get a general idea of which balls clanked off the Green Monster for hits, and I count four (maybe five) balls hit over the wall the other way. Now lets look at the spray chart for his last 212 PA…

Again, typical Gonzalez in that most of the balls hit to the outfield went the other way while the grounders have been pulled, but where are they majority of the hits? They’re in shallow right and center, and a lot them are grounders sneaking through the infield (remember, the spray chart shows where the ball was fielded by the defender, not where it landed). There’s basically no balls hit deep to left, at least relative to what he was doing earlier in the season. I’d like to hear from the Red Sox fans out there … is Gonzalez battling a nagging injury? Have pitchers changed their approach against him (more offspeed, maybe pounding him inside with fastballs)? Is there any evidence that would help explain this sudden spike in ground ball rate, which has led to the lack of homeruns?

By no means has Gonzalez been bad this season, in fact I just ranked him the top fantasy first baseman last week. He’s hitting for a super-high average and is driving in what seems like two runs a game because his teammates are awesome, though after four straight years of 30+ homers with the Padres in Petco Park, we all expected him to do no worse than maintain that pace in Fenway. ZiPS projects him to hit just nine more dingers the rest of the way, which would bring his season total to 27. Gonzalez showed earlier in the year that he can get hot (eight homers in an 11 game stretch in May), so it would not be a surprise to see how outperform that projection. But has his relative lack of homers to this point been a little disappointing? Yeah I think that’s fair.

Big ups to Texas Leaguers for the spray charts.


James Darnell and Nate Eovaldi: Mining the Minors

At this point in the season, with just about seven weeks remaining, the chance that a newcomer to your roster will make a significant fantasy impact isn’t great, whether we’re talking about a recently-recalled minor leaguer getting another another shot in the bigs or one of the few elite prospects who has yet to get the call. But that doesn’t mean these players are entirely incapable of making useful fantasy contributions either.

Now that we’re down to the final push — when the fantasy playoffs are in sight, money is on the line and bragging rights are up for grabs — it’s the savvy owner who follows every turn of the the never-ceasing transaction wheel. Because continuing to play that slumping stud regularly (any day now, Carlos Beltran) or rostering that one-time starter who just lost his job (step aside, Travis Snider) or waiting for that injured star to return (hurry back, Rickie Weeks) or sitting on that pitcher who was traded to a tougher environment (hey, Jason Marquis is actually owned in some leagues) isn’t exactly doing much to help your cause now, is it? But maybe — just maybe — one of these guys can.

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My Head is Spinning…Catching Up After Vacation

I’m baaaack. After embarking on a week and a half long road trip through Montana, Wyoming and South Dakota, I was mostly deprived of keeping up with baseball, and the chances I did have to follow the news, I chose not to take advantage of. Blasphemy! I know, I know. Although my one (yes, to everyone’s surprise, I am only in one league this year) fantasy team has little chance at a money finish, I still did not want to have any distractions during this adventure-filled vacation. Of course, I probably picked the worst possible time to take this trip, as the crazy trading deadline was smack in the middle of it. As you could imagine, upon returning home and trying to figure out how to catch up on everything I missed, my head was spinning.

Ubaldo Jimenez is an Indian??? Huh??? That was the first thing I found out and my exact reaction. I later began my attempt at determining the best method to learn of all the baseball happenings, while not spending hours upon hours on doing so. Here is how I did it…

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Roto Riteup: Thursday, August 11th, 2011

– The Royals continue to bring prospects to the big leagues, calling up catcher Salvador Perez. The 21-year old Perez is exactly what you would expect from a Dayton Moore catcher: his batting average is high, his walk rate is low, and he doesn’t have a whole lot of power to speak of. Still, the idea of a catcher with a high batting average is certainly attractive in non-OBP leagues, so it might not be a bad idea to give this kid a shot if you’re looking for a catcher in deeper than standard leagues. It sounds like he’ll be the main catcher in KC, and who knows, maybe he’ll hit .280? If you’re in deeper (dynasty) leagues, he’s certainly worth a shot if you’re in need of catching help.

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