Archive for August, 2011

Two-Start-Pitchers: Week 19

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Brett Cecil – In his last six games, Cecil has thrown a Quality Start five times. The main thing holding him down right now is his propensity for the long ball, as he’s allowed 10 HR in 70.1 IP this year for Toronto. But this week he has home starts against OAK and ANA, two teams below average in hitting HR. ANA could give him some trouble, as their top three HR threats have combined for 40 HR and all three bat righty. All 10 of Cecil’s HR this year have been served up to RH batters. But the matchup against OAK looks good and Cecil is a guy you can likely pluck off the waiver wire and stream this week.

Matt Garza – In 21 starts this year, Garza has managed just 5 Wins. But he has an outstanding 9.02 K/9 and a respectable 3.78 ERA. His peripherals are even better, as Garza has a 3.14 xFIP, which is tied for the 10th-best mark among qualified hurlers. He’s been pitching well lately, with six Quality Starts in his last eight games. He’s been very good at home, where he squares off this week against WSN. Garza does have a road start against ATL, but the Braves have scored just 37 runs in their last 12 games. Keep Garza active this week.

Matt Harrison – The matchups are favorable for Harrison this week as he faces SEA and OAK. He’s also been pitching extremely well over his last 15 games, with a 2.57 ERA in that span. Wins have been hard to come by for Harrison this year, but he picked up a victory in three of his last four decisions over his last five starts. Get him into your lineup this week.

Daniel Hudson – Since being acquired from the White Sox last year at the trade deadline, Hudson has 17 starts at Chase Field and he is 9-4 with a 2.69 ERA and a 1.035 WHIP. This week he has home starts against the Astros and Mets, two teams that have made trades with an eye on the future which have limited their offensive firepower this season. Make sure that Hudson is active this week.

Justin Masterson – It has been a streaky season for Masterson, who started off 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA after seven starts. He then proceeded to go 0-6 in his next nine games. But Masterson is back on track since the beginning of July. He had six stars in the month and went 3-1 with a 1.58 ERA. Masterson still struggles against LHB but faces the Twins, who are playing without Justin Morneau. His other matchup is against the Tigers, which should be a little more difficult, but in two starts against Detroit this season he’s allowed 4 ER in 13.1 IP for a 2.70 ERA. He should be in your lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 19 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Haren, Shields, Marcum, Vogelsong, Baker, Stuaffer, W. Rodriguez, Kuroda, Jackson, Floyd, Fister, Lowe, Humber, Harden Marquis, Bailey, Pelfrey, Capuano, Morton, Guthrie, Willis, Hochevar, Britton, Hammel, Francis, Lyles, Rogers, Furbush, Hand, Wang.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers
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Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 17 pitchers and how they fared.

R. De La Rosa – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 3.60 ERA, 1.600 WHIP, 10 IP, 4 ER
F. Garcia – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 3.29 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 17.2 IP, 5 ER
Karstens – Advised to sit. 8 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER
Narveson – Advised to start. W, 7 Ks, 3.86 ERA, 1.371 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 5 ER
Pavano – Advised to sit. 2 Ks, 15.00 ERA, 2.444 WHIP, 9.0 IP, 15 ER


Leonys Martin, Brad Peacock and Garrett Richards: Mining the Minors

So you’ve probably heard Brett Lawrie has been called up. Of course, if this is the first you’re getting wind of this, I urge you to click on over to your league site, type in “Lawrie” in the Available Players search and add him, even in mixed leagues. Erik Hahmann will have more Lawrie analysis coming shortly, so don’t forget to check back here.

Also debuting later today? Trayvon Robinson, who was arguably the Dodgers top hitting prospect until he was basically given away to Seattle at the deadline for reasons I’m still trying to figure out. Here’s my take from last month on Robinson, who I think is only actionable in AL-only play. As I mentioned previously, his new power-over-speed approach this year won’t necessarily suit him well at his new team’s digs, which play a lot like his old team’s digs.

Until Lawrie and Robinson get their careers underway, though, you can read about three other guys who could be joining them in the bigs pretty soon.

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N.L. Starting Pitcher Ranks

The voices from on high have heard your plea for updated NL pitcher ranks and I shall deliver them to you. The tiers are sorted by how great it would be to have one of these things in your town.

The Pyramids of Giza

Roy Halladay
Clayton Kershaw
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee

These guys have given you a strong season from first pitch on and they don’t show signs of breaking down anytime soon. While Phillies fans are obviously rooting for their team to win the NL East by as many games as possible, owners who are relying on one or more of Halladay, Hamels, and Lee might quietly root for the Braves to keep the division close. A large lead increases the likelihood that the top of the rotation will be rested down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry »


Biggest Busts: Shortstops and Outfielders (ottoneu lwts leagues)

Wrapping up our survey of disappointing seasons, we turn our attention to shortstops and outfielders.

Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez, FLA
wOBA: .318
Avg. Cost $54.45
Performed As: $13
Value: -$42
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN
wOBA: .218
Avg. Cost: $6.96
Performed As: -$11
Value: -$18
Reid Brignac, TBR
wOBA: .207
Avg. Cost: $2.13
Performed As: -$17
Value: -$17

My pick to hit to his cost the rest of the way: Tsuyoshi Nishioka

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2011 First Base Rankings: August

New month, new rankings. The trade deadline had some fantasy impact on the first base position, but nothing too crazy. Here are last month’s rankings, which link back even further into the season.

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Pedro Alvarez and Paul Goldschmidt: Mining the Minors

With lots of ground to cover in the wake of all the call-ups and promotions following the trade deadline, here’s a rapid-fire version of Mining the Minors.

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No Bear Market: Tyler Colvin Gets Fantasy Boost After Trade Deadline

Technically, the deal that sent Kosuke Fukudome to the Cleveland Indians for a pair of minor leaguers was consummated three days before the actual trade deadline, but close enough.  While AL-only league owners are still debating whether or not Fukudome and his .364 OBP are worth a claim, the better potential fantasy value remains in Chicago as Tyler Colvin gets another shot this season to prove his worth.  After a stellar rookie campaign in 2010, Colvin struggled mightily this year, but with a less crowded outfield and another chance to stake his claim on the Cubs’ right field job, Colvin has a prime opportunity to put his early season woes behind him and make himself indispensable to fantasy owners for these final two months. Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: Thursday, August 4th, 2011

Today marks the fourth day of a new feature we will be trying out here at RotoGraphs. In an attempt to keep you, the fantastical reader, informed, we will be looking at some of the stories around baseball that have an effect on your fantasy team. Because this piece is ultimately being read by you, your opinion is requested. Please chime in using the comments and let us know what you would like to see from this piece.

– After undergoing surgery on his left shoulder, Cincinnati Reds’ third baseman Scott Rolen will miss at least a month of action. Odds are the Reds are going to give Miguel Cairo most of Rolen’s playing time, and he has actually played well for Cincy this year, already contributing over 1.5 wins to his team. Cairo’s fantasy value is certainly limited, but he may not be a terrible pickup in very deep leagues if you own Rolen. Another player to keep an eye on in Todd Fraizer, but it appears Dusty Baker prefers to keep him on the bench.

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2B Rankings for the Rest of Season

Today I am am looking at the top 20 2B for the rest of the season. I am not taking into account if they should be moved up or down for keeper value, just their production this season. I am looking for healthy and versatile players on teams looking to make a playoff run to maximize playing time. The following is my rankings with notes on some players.

1. Dustin Pedroia – It took him a while to get going, but the SB ability ranks him above Cano.
2. Robinson Cano – Finally knocked off the top perch. He is solid, but lacking the SB.
3. Ben Zobrist – I put him over the next two do to position flexibility.
4. Ian Kinsler – Pedroia without the average.
5. Chase Utley – Utley has really picked it up and is putting up HRs and SBs at near Pedroia pace.

The following 4 (#6 to #9) may not put up the numbers of the next 3 (#10 to #12), but their multiple position elligibilites are a must at the end of the season. With most league’s trading deadlines already past or coming up, these hitters can help with roster flexibility if a player on your team hits the DL.

6. Michael Cuddyer
7. Michael Young
8. Daniel Murphy
9. Ryan Roberts – I am not sold at all on him going forward to next season, but 15 HRs and 14 SB in about 100 PA less than most of the other 2B is not shabby.

I like the following 4 2B quite a bit. If you own any of them, there is not much of a reason to look for an upgrade.

10. Brandon Phillips
11. Danny Espinosa
12. Neil Walker
13. Howie Kendrick

14. Dustin Ackley – I would have him much higher for a team out of contention in a keeper league. I could see him struggle as pitchers begin to adjust to him.
15. Martin Prado
16. Kelly Johnson – Really streaky. I drafted him in too many leagues and he is driving me nuts.
17. Dan Uggla – Extremely one dimensional with his 22 HRs (and the Runs and RBI that go with it). Could definitely be higher or lower on the list depending an owners need for HRs.
18. Rickie Weeks – A player must be on the field to help and he may not be available until September. If an owner is in contention in a keeper league, it may be wise to trade him off for a lesser talent to help with the final push.
19. Placido Polanco – Falling hard since he is not able to keep his BA near 0.300.
20. Jemile Weeks – SBs are elite. AVG is nice. Power is non existent. I about put Gordon Beckham here instead.


Santana, Hughes: AL Starting Pitchers

On a night when Ricky Romero was a Desmond Jennings‘ home run away from a no-hitter, when the White Sox were thankful that the rain saved them from three more innings of Phil Hughes, and when David Huff held down the potent Red Sox’s offense only to be being demoted for his troubles, perhaps the most surprising pitching line came courtesy of the Angels’ Ervin Santana. The right-hander shutdown the Twins en route to the first complete game following a no-hitter since Tommy Greene did it for the 1991 Phillies, for a line of 9 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K.

It isn’t at all uncommon for a pitcher to struggle after a no-hitter or perfect game: Francisco Liriano lasted just three innings against the Tigers after throwing a season high 123 pitches in no-hitting the White Sox and Edwin Jackson made it out of the sixth inning just once in the month after his 149-pitch no-no. Two factors helped Santana avoid their fate on Tuesday. First, his no-hitter wasn’t as strenuous as many no-hitters are; he threw just 105 pitches, barely above his season average of 102. Second, the Twins didn’t exactly wear him out with their approach. While Santana did tie a season high with 121 pitches, he got seven first or second pitch outs and had innings of just seven, eight, nine, and 11 pitches. Santana has given up more than three runs in an outing just once in his last nine starts, but he’s rostered in 89 percent of ESPN leagues and 72 percent of Yahoo! leagues, so it’s worth checking if he’s on the wire, especially in shallow leagues.

While it’s unlikely that Santana or Romero (owned in 89 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 100 percent of ESPN leagues) are available to you, Tuesday’s other impressive AL starter probably is. Phil Hughes (owned in 36 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 24 percent of ESPN leagues) was cruising against the White Sox before rain shortened his start, as he needed just 65 pitches to make it through the sixth inning. He has three quality starts in four outings since the All-Star break, but isn’t yet logging many innings in his starts, which is why his low pitch count last time out is especially notable.

Hughes is still relying heavily on his four-seam fastball, and hasn’t yet gotten his cutter back to it previously effective state. The key for Hughes -— and the point at which he returns to being a solid fantasy options —- is his feel for his secondary pitches, both his cut-fastball and curveball. Until his command comes back, hitters can simply wait for Hughes to throw fastballs if he gets into trouble. While his four-seamer is good, it isn’t good enough to consistently beat hitters who are waiting for it.

Despite Tuesday’s good start, Hughes still isn’t showing enough to be worth adding in shallow or even normal mixed leagues, though in AL-only or deep mixed, he may be a worthy gamble -— especially since his next three starts are against the Angels, Royals, and Twins. Nevertheless, it’s worth keeping an eye on his next start, if he can keep his pitch counts low and show improvement in his secondary offerings, he could be a solid addition to a team with playoff aspirations.