Even though the league ERA is at its lowest mark since 1992, fantasy teams can never have enough pitching. And because everything is relative, half the teams are still going to be below average in the category. If you find yourself in that unfortunate situation, here are three potential second half surgers from the American League.
With the All-Star break upon us, there isn’t really any news about NL starters to analyze, so here are a few notes to get you ready for the return of baseball that actually means something.
Last week we updated the closer rankings, so now let’s update the guys setting them up. Here are our June holds rankings, we can take you back to previous months. Here’s the holds leaderboard for reference as well.
While most are taking a little breather from their fantasy baseball teams during the All Star Break, it can’t hurt to scour your waiver wire and see who’s still out there that may help you out for your second half push. Players coming back from injury are always a good target as well as players recently called back up from the minors. Here are two for you to consider… Read the rest of this entry »
Ug. In the FanGraphs home league on ottoneu, the fantasy guy in the room has been embarrassed. It’s a Perm needs to open up its doors and sell, sell, sell. I hang my head in shame. My team of old dudes that take walks didn’t take enough of them and proved to be too old.
Maybe you guys can help me spot my most sellable veterans. So far the sharks are circling for Jonathan Papelbon, mostly. He’s not real old, but I have to think about possible returns too. Help me out here. And if you do, I’ll give you a tip on a good deal.
I have to admit, these posts are a joy. In no other article could you possibly recommend a hitter slashing .243/.305/.360 AND a rookie pitcher who allowed six runs over four innings in his Major League Debut and avoid losing your entire readership. I could do no wrong!
Juan Rivera, LAD OF | 6%
Usual lefty-mashing Marcus Thames was released yesterday and the Dodgers subsequently replaced him with Rivera. Initially, it appears he will take over that same role, only facing left-handers. This makes sense of course as in his career, he has posted a .357 wOBA against southpaws, but just a .326 mark against righties. Even this season, despite his overall struggles, he has put up a .393 wOBA against lefties, albeit in a small 55 at-bat sample. Obviously, you don’t really want Rivera if he only faces left-handers. However, Tony Gwynn, Jr. is no one’s idea of a starting left-fielder, even given his excellent defense. At age 33, it is certainly in the realm of possibility that Rivera is done. But we cannot forget he hit 25 home runs just two years ago. If he hits well out of the gate, he could easily win more playing time and provide some deep league value.
Kyle Weiland, BOS SP | 4%
This may be the first recommendation that literally throws up zeroes for the rest of the season. That is, it is very possible he does not pitch another inning for the Sox this year. But, with Jon Lester’s status up in the air, and no other clear-cut options, Weiland may stick around for a little while. He posted a strong set of skills at Triple-A this season and has seen his skills improve as he climbed the minor league ladder, which is a great sign. He has induced an above average percentage of grounders and his fastball averaged 93.1 miles per hour during his first outing. Control may be an issue, as it has not been great during his minor league career and he threw just 40.9% of his first pitches for strikes during his debut. At least he has the powerful Sox offense backing him, so he could luck into some wins even if he does have some struggles, assuming he makes it through five of course.
Not long after the final out of the All-Star Game was recorded, work broke that the Mets had traded closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers for two players to be named later. Obviously this deal has major fantasy impact, so let’s break it down.
The Brewers
“Francisco has been one of the best relievers in the game for many years,” said Brewers GM Doug Melvin in the press release. “He is a high-quality arm who will be a tremendous asset to our bullpen as we prepare for the final months of the regular season and playoffs.”
That language (“best relievers,” not “best closers”) leads me to believe that the Brewers will continue to use John Axford in save situations. He’s outperformed K-Rod this year (2.26 FIP vs. 2.98 FIP) but doesn’t have the same kind of track record, however there’s the issue of Rodriguez’s vesting option. If he finishes 21 more games this year, it’ll lock in a $17.5M salary for next season. There’s a better chance of Trevor Hoffman coming out of retirement to be the seventh inning guy than there is of Milwaukee letting that sucker kick in.
Axford owners, you’re safe. His role doesn’t figure to change. Yeah, K-Rod might steal a save here or there (they have the wiggle room to let him finish 10-15 games), but nothing crazy. Rodriguez owners are pretty much out of luck, you’ve got a great option for holds but just took a big hit in the saves department.
The Mets
There are two obvious candidates to inherit the ninth inning in Flushing. Jason Isringhausen has been doing a bang-up job as K-Rod’s primary setup man this season, though his 4.67 FIP and 4.81 xFIP do a better job of telling the real story than his 3.14 ERA. Izzy isn’t missing many bats (6.4% whiffs) and is giving up a ton of fly balls (just 30.5% grounders), so CitiField is saving him some headache. He has the Proven Closer tag and is seven saves away from 300, things that could impact his role even if they really shouldn’t.
The other option is hard-throwing Bobby Parnell, who has seen quite a bit of high-leverage work of late. He’s pitched to 1.56 ERA with 19 strikeouts and just four walks in 17.1 IP since coming off the disabled list at the end of May, and his stuff is clearly superior to Izzy’s. Parnell has just one career save (back in 2009), so if he does get the job, he might be on a very short leash. The team would probably be better off letting him handle the sticky situations in the seventh/eighth while Isringhausen starts the ninth fresh with no one on base anyway.
The dark horse is rookie Pedro Beato, but he seems like an extreme long shot. His 3.38 ERA matches his 3.38 FIP, but he’s seen more sixth and seventh inning work than anything else this year. Perhaps down the road, but Beato’s time is not now. I suspect that Isringhausen will get the call for the time being, but keep in mind that he’s on the trade block as well and could have a new address in three weeks. He’s the short-term option, but Parnell is the clear long-term solution here.
Aside: Heath Bell just got that more valuable on the real life trade market, so if you’re concerned that he’ll get moved to a club with an established closer, I’d look to sell him in fantasy now.
After a ho-hum second stint in the Bronx last year and a disastrous beginning to his Marlins career, most fantasy owners stuck a fork in Javier Vazquez. After all, the soon-to-be 36-year-old was struggling to hit the upper 80s on the radar gun while ensuring that every person in attendance at Sun Life Stadium went home with a souvenir home run ball.
But there has since been a twist in Vazquez’s seeming destiny to finish his career by getting pummeled in front of droves of empty orange seats: he’s starting to pitch more like the workhorse who routinely posted impressive strikeout-to-walk ratios.
Take a look at Vazquez’s K/BB ratio and xFIP by month:
Just when you were getting used to the “new normal,” it normalizes on you.
A lot has been written about Mark Reynolds this year, and rightly so, as he’s had one of the more head-scratching performances of the season. Back in May, he looked like he was on a “designated for assignment” path as he was hitting 9th in the batting order and every single one of his offensive statistics were just laughable. Many people pointed to his increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts as improvement and yet the results only got worse.
In an earlier post, I observed that pitchers seemed to have changed their repertoire versus Reynolds, that he was having somewhat rotten luck on batted balls, and that he was struggling mightily versus left handed pitchers, and I’d like to revisit both charts, as well as delve into the remarkable turnaround he’s seen in the last two months.
I’ve shown my fondness for power hitting shortstops in this space befor; writing about Asdrubal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta. Today the focus turns to one of the most overlooked players in fantasy thus far: J.J. Hardy.
Like Peralta, Hardy had success a few seasons ago then struggled with both performance (.292 wOBA in 2009) before seemingly righting the ship this season. Hardy is injury prone, which hasn’t helped his quest to get back to All-Star status. He was released after a moderately successful season, yet injury prone, season in Minnesota that saw him hit just six home runs in 375 plate appearances. In fact, before this season Hardy had just 17 dingers over his last 840 PA’s. That’s after back to back seasons with 26 and 24 respectively. The Twins traded him to Baltimore which looks to be the perfect landing place for the 28 year-old.
He’s missed a few weeks this season due to injury – did you expect something less? – but now that it appears he’s finally healthy he’s putting up numbers that will place him near the top of the shortstop rankings. Camden Yards is a great hitter’s park and Hardy is taking full advantage. In June, his one fully healthy month, Hardy hit .362/.409/.686/.324 (ISO) with 9 home runs and a .468 wOBA. Obviously he can’t keep that up for a full season, but it shows what he can do when healthy, especially in that ballpark. Currently Hardy is ranked 13th among shortstops in Yahoo! leages after only 237 at bats, and his .361 wOBA would be 4th in baseball if he qualified. His 13 home runs put him 4th at his position, just three behind Troy Tulowitzki. As our own Mike Axisa pointed out nearly a month ago, Hardy is hitting fly balls at a career high rate (49%) which translates into good things in Camden Yards.
The ZiPS projections have Hardy hitting .269/.323/.443 with 8 home runs and 26 RBI from this point forward. That would leave him with a .349 wOBA, which would have ranked 4th among all shortstops last season. Currently Hardy is owned in just 67% of leagues. That’s a crime. Yes, he gets hurt, but with a position as scarcely populated with good players as shortstop that number deserves to be much higher.