It may have taken four months, and nearly 1,000 plate appearances at AAA, but the Tampa Bay Rays have finally called up Desmond Jennings. For owners in keeper leagues, it’s finally time to rejoice. Owners in year-to-year leagues will now need to decide whether Jennings is worthy of a pickup going forward. Jennings certainly has that top prospect shine — he appeared on Baseball America’s top 100 list the last four seasons — but will he contribute enough to make an impact on fantasy rosters?
Read the rest of this entry »

On Saturday, I looked at the top five pitchers whose K% suggested their K/9 rates should be higher. Given the different denominators between the two metrics, it came as no surprise that pitchers who have benefited from good fortune found themselves toward the top of the list as they had fewer opportunities to punch hitters out. Today I look at the other side of the coin, those pitchers whose K/9 marks are higher than their K% would suggest.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is the latest update to Week 17 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Hanson, Below.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Sabathia.

Let’s take a look at Duane Below. At the beginning of the year it seemed unlikely that Below would be a two-start candidate even in September, much less July. After all, he was coming off a season at Double-A at age 24 where he went 7-12 with a 4.93 ERA, having allowed 17 HR in 126 IP.

Below started the year in Triple-A where he posted a 9-4 record with a 3.13 ERA before getting the call to Detroit. In his last eight games, Below was 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA. With Phil Coke struggling as a starting pitcher, the Tigers were looking for a new arm to fill out the rotation.

He got a nice break in his major league debut, as he faced the Oakland A’s, who are 28th with an average runs per game mark of 3.56 in 2011. Below went five innings, allowed three runs, only one of which was earned, and got a no-decision. The outing was enough to keep him in the rotation and he is set to face off against the White Sox and Angels this week, the latter one a home start.

The lefty Below is not overpowering but he did induce a lot of groundballs in his start against the A’s. But even though he gave up just six fly balls, one of them went for a home run. His minor league numbers suggested a pitcher who had trouble with the gopher ball and that played true to form in his MLB debut.

Below got good results early with his curve and changeup but it’s important to note he didn’t generate many swings out of the strike zone (O-Swing% of 18.8) and his SwStr% was just 3.9. While it’s important to realize that it’s just one start, those are not numbers that inspire confidence for continued success in the majors.

The punsters and headline writers will no doubt enjoy the wordplay that a fellow who has an adverb/preposition for a surname offers them. But fantasy players should not share their enthusiasm and let others pick Below off of the waiver wire.

On Friday, I posted an article on SP/RP qualified relievers. In the comments, Andrew asked my take on Sam LeCure and/or Lance Lynn, so I will look at both now.

Note: I am gone for the week and scheduled and wrote this article ahead of time so some of the stats may be a couple days old.

Sam LeCure (0.0% ESPN) – Lecure has been relegated to the bullpen after making a few starts in April. As a reliever, he has been lights out with an ERA of 0.71, 0.75 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 3 Holds over 24.1 IP in 16 games. An over 4:1 SO:BB ratio is always nice from any pitcher.

He has been helped by a 0.217 BABIP and 3.7% HR/FB%. Even though his FIP (2.49) and xFIP (3.22) as a reliever are several times larger than his ERA, they are still respectable.

One main issue holding down his value is that he is not being used in a way to pick up Holds. Since his last Hold on May 16, he has only been used in one game that the Reds held a lead and it was 5-0 win.

Lecure is a nice SP/RP source for Ks and can help pad an owner’s WHIP and ERA. His main drawback is that he is not being used in a way to pick up Holds.

Lance Lynn (0.1% ESPN) – After making a couple starts in early June, Lynn has been in the Cardinals bullpen where he has thrived. In nine games as a reliever, he has a 2.45 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.89 WHIP and 2 Holds. His ERA is in line with his FIP (2.76) and xFIP (1.86).

The high K rate looks to regress a bit after looking at some other numbers. First his SwgStr% is 9.1%, which normally equates to a K/9 of 7.5 K/9, not 9.7 K/9 (I had to used combined SP and RP data since there are no splits for SwgStr%). The 7.5 K/9 values is closer to his average AAA K/9 value of 7.9. All of the AAA numbers where as a SP, but they give an idea of his K ability.

To start the season, Lynn was not used in a way to accumulate Holds. His usuage has changed a bit recently where he has accumulated his only two Holds of the season in 2 of his last 4 outings.

Lynn looks to be a nice source of WHIP, ERA and Holds. He should help with Ks, but probably not at the level he has so far this season.

First, another fist pump for David Appelman’s addition of K% to the site. No longer do I have to surf on over to an enemy site to get this information. As was noted in some of the comments on the announcement post, K/9 will be lower than it should be if the pitcher has benefited from some good fortune that allowed him to face fewer batters than expected. So, assuming the pitcher’s luck does in fact regress, he should see his strikeout rate rise. Here are the five pitchers with the largest difference between their ranking in K% and K9.

Read the rest of this entry »

Back on May 6th Zachary Sanders wrote a waiver wire post about Todd Helton. At the time he was owned in only 12% of Yahoo! leagues and 19% of ESPN leagues. Some of you heeded Mr. Sanders’ advice as Helton’s ownership in ESPN leagues is up to 98.8%. Kudos to you, Mr. Owner. But those of you in Yahoo! leagues…what gives? Why do you hate Todd Helton? His ownership is just 61%.

All Helton has done is hit .324/.407/.502. No matter what type of league you’re in a slash line like that has value, even if its just as a bench bat. No, the 11 home runs and 50 RBI aren’t the type of power numbers you’d usually want from your first basemen, but Helton’s .177 ISO is actually higher than it’s been since 2006. The month of July has been especially good to Helton. He’s hit .396/.507/.604 in 69 plate appearances with seven extra base hits and 16 RBI. Expecting a 1.111 OPS to continue is a pipe dream, but there’s no reason he can’t maintain a figure in the high .800’s or low .900’s thanks to his fantastic on base percentage. His OBP has climbed each month going from .359 to .385 to .396 to .507 in July. Of the 17 first basemen Yahoo! has ranked in the top 100 Helton is the only one with an ownership percentage of 82.

Granted, you’re not likely to start Helton over players like Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Paul Konerko, etc, but Carlos Pena and Billy Butler are owned in more leagues despite being lower in the rankings. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Helton keeps his average above .320 for the season. Only seven players in baseball hit above .320 last year. More players hit 30+ home runs. That presents real value.

Check your rosters. That last bench player you have that you rarely use? Drop whoever it is in favor of Helton. He’s better than the alternative.

Eno will be here at 12:15 EDT to take your questions, but you can begin leaving your questions now. If you like.

I have profiled several SP/RP qualified relievers so far this season (here and here and here) with David Hernandez currently being the best out of the bunch. Today I am going to dig a little deeper and look at some SP/RP relievers on the fringe of being owned.

Alfredo Aceves (0.6% owned ESPN) – On the surface, Aceves looks to have pitched OK as a reliever this season with 7 Holds, 2.64 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. These stats are all smoke and mirrors. The rate stats are being driven by a low BABIP of 0.188. His FIP (4.72) and xFIP (4.60) are much higher.

The one item he has been able to improve has a reliever is his walks. As a starter his walk rate is 5.57 BB/9, but as a reliever it is down to 2.64 BB/9.

I would not count on him padding your rate stats. I could see him being a decent source of counting stats like Holds (Boston should have plenty of leads) or Wins.

Daniel McCutchen (0.1% owned ESPN) – Like Aceves, McCutchen has some nice stats as a reliever, a 3-1 record, 8 Holds, a 1.20 WHIP and a 2.19 ERA. His low ERA is being driven down by a low BABIP (0.265) and HR/FB (6.3%). McCutchen has not been much of a strikeout pitcher in his time in the majors (4.9 K/9) and has walked a few too many batters (3.1 BB/9). All these stats lead to a FIP (3.87), xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.13) that are each about twice his ERA.

The only reason I see to own him is if an owner is in desperate need of Holds.

Aaron Laffey (0.0% owned ESPN) – Another player with a nice and pretty ERA (2.39). His ERA is not being suppessed by a super low BABIP (0.280) or HR/FB (13.9%). Instead, he has some how stranded 91.3% of the base runners allowed this season. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but his FIP (4.61), xFIP (4.00) and SIERA (3.83) are all a bit higher than his ERA. With a K/BB of 1.75, he doesn’t provide much promise.

Also, he is generally not even used as a setup man, so his chances of generating Holds is at a minimum.

Final thoughts

All 3 of these pitchers have an ERA that is not sustainable and provide little in the way of Ks. If you are looking for some SP/RP qualified pitchers, I would look for one mention in one of my previous articles.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 17.

Rubby De La Rosa – Thought to be a potential closer earlier in the year, De La Rosa has instead found a home in the rotation for the Dodgers. A couple of rough outings have inflated his ERA while a couple of hard-luck losses leave his record at under .500 for the season. But in his last four games, De La Rosa has a 2.16 ERA with 7 BB and 22 Ks in 25 IP. Earlier in the year, walks were a big problem for him and he still holds a 4.09 BB/9. Even with that walk rate, De La Rosa’s FIP and xFIP are both below his ERA. He has two home starts this week. There’s a chance he’s still on the waiver wire in your league and if so he makes an excellent streaming option.

Freddy Garcia – After pitching on the road in five of his last six games, Garcia gets to make two home starts this week. The veteran has done quite well on the road this year and has been victimized somewhat by the gopher ball in new Yankee Stadium. Garcia squares off this week against SEA and BAL. The Mariners are one of the worst HR hitting teams in baseball, while the Orioles are middle of the pack, but hit one-third fewer HR on the road than they do in Camden Yards. They are have two of the worst records in the AL. Make sure Garcia is active this week.

Jeff Karstens – An 86.6 LOB% has helped Karstens to a shiny 2.28 ERA and eight wins. In the previous three years, Karstens was very consistent with his xFIP, posting rates of 4.77, 4.88 and 4.82 in that span. This year’s rate checks in at 4.40 – an improvement, perhaps, but still nowhere near his actual ERA. Karstens has kept runners off base and his 1.04 WHIP is the ninth-best mark in baseball. But he struggles with the long ball (1.33 HR/9) and has a poor 4.79 K/9. This week he has road starts against ATL and PHI, two of the top teams in the league and teams that are above average in hitting HRs in their own park. Give him the week off if you can.

Chris Narveson – Miller Park is a good hitter’s park but Narveson has performed much better this year at home (5-2, 3.81 ERA) than on the road (1-4, 4.97). Narveson allows fewer baserunners at home and has a better SO/BB ratio at Miller Park, but his main reason for success is that he’s only allowed 2 HR in 52 IP in his home park. This week he gets CHI and HOU, the two worst teams in the NL. Get Narveson in your lineup for these matchups.

Carl Pavano – In the first two months of the season, Pavano had HR/FB rates below seven. In June that number jumped to 8.8 percent and this month it sits at 12.5, as he’s allowed a HR in six consecutive starts. His first start this week is at TEX and the Rangers are second in the AL with 122 HR, with a league-leading 81 at home. Pavano gets a break with his second start at OAK, as the A’s are last in the AL with 26 HR at home. But Pavano has hardly been a road warrior this year, with a 5.07 ERA away from Target Field. Give Pavano a place on your bench this week if you have other options.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Sabathia, Weaver, Lee, Lincecum, Haren, Wilson, Hudson, Cueto, Hellickson, Morrow, Nolasco, Zimmermann, Worley, Holland, Dempster, Niese, Harang, Vargas, Lester, Leake, Myers, McDonald, McClellan, Dickey, Arrieta, Blackburn, Miller, Carmona, McCarthy, Saunders, Nicasio, Westbrook, Moscoso, Moseley, Happ, Davies

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Week 15 was the All-Star break, so no update on previous picks.

At approximately 4:45 p.m. Thursday, the Twitter handle @TheJK_Kid tweeted the following: “ITS TIME!” This was relevant because that account belongs to Indians prospect Jason Kipnis.

Read the rest of this entry »