Ever wonder how the starting pitchers representing the NL in the All-Star game ranked in terms of fantasy value? Wonder no more!

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We’re now halfway through the season, so let’s update our rankings of the guys shutting things down in the ninth inning. Here are the preseason, May, and June rankings for reference, as well as the saves leaderboard. This rankings are based on three things (in no particular order): current performance, expected future performance, and job security. That last one is important for closers but not always easy to gauge. There hasn’t been a ton of movement in the last month, but there’s always some…

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Maybe it’s just me and the fact that my fantasy teams are being decimated with injuries, but do there seem to be a lot more than usual?  Obviously, when you lose a player for an extended period of time it can be a nightmare trying to find similar production.  But if you’re just losing a guy for a two week stretch and need a temporary stopgap to hold you over, then there’s still help to be found.  Here are a pair of guys that seem to be available in a number of leagues and are likely to help you out on a short term basis. Read the rest of this entry »

For the first time this season, I nabbed a waiver wire pick from the “most dropped” players in CBS leagues. Since fantasy owners are generally as bad as non-professional stock market investors, picking up the hot players and dropping the cold ones just to watch the trend reverse shortly thereafter, I will continue checking out that list.

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Zack Greinke is currently starring in ‘The Peripheral Disconnect,’ but Felipe Paulino has been a worthy leading man for the role during most of his career. The 27-year-old righty, long a scouting favorite for his mid-90s gas and upper-80s slider, has nearly a run-and-a-half difference between his xFIP (4.06) and ERA (5.50).

Yet Paulino, now in his third different organization within the past year, appears poised to get off baseball’s D-list by matching process and results with the Royals. Given a chance to start in K.C before another wave of upper-echelon pitching prospects arrives, the former Astro and Rockie is making Dayton Moore look like a smart man.

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It’s been a little while since we’ve updated the shortstop rankings. There’s been some substantial movement since the last edition, including a new number one. Please feel free to debate the rankings/call me an idiot in the comments.

Tier 1:
Jose Reyes
Asdrubal Cabrera
Troy Tulowitzki

Reyes has easily jumped to the number one spot rankings, taking his place back amongst the fantasy elite. He’s easily having the best season of his career, hitting .354/.398/.529 which would all shatter his previous highs. Even though the slugging percentage is excellent he’s only hit three home runs, which may have to do with CitiField more than anything as Reyes is on pace for career highs in triples and doubles. The BABIP is .375, which is likely to go down, but Reyes is the type of player who could sustain that for a single season. Ranking Cabrera second over Tulowitzki and Peralta was tough for me, but his 12 steals was the deciding factor. I’ve written enough about him this season, and as long as he keeps up the power numbers he’ll maintain a high ranking. Tulowitzki has the potential to make a run at Reyes with a strong second half, but until he can improve on his current .256 BABIP that’s going to be hard.

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As the season moves on, things are really settling in with the catcher rankings.  Not a whole lot of movement from tier to tier (almost none), but some movement within.  Remember, the criteria used for the rankings is as follows:

1.  Current performance level
2.  Expected performance for rest of season
3.  Value based on standard 5×5 categories (avg over OBP)

Here’s how it looks heading into July. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve written two pretty similar pieces on third basemen. One of which has made me look like a genius — the other has made me look like a total idiot. That’s one of the main issues with making predictions here on RotoGraphs. You try to come to the best conclusions based on stats, player history, etc. — but sometimes you still end up with egg on your face. Hindsight being what it is, I would like to look back at my methods in each instance and try to determine where I went wrong and what aspects of the process I had correct. I think this exercise will help the readers understand my methods and will let me know the areas where I can improve in the future.
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Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Verlander, Pineda, Cahill, Chacin

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Scherzer, Dempster, Zambrano, Moscoso, Cook.

Let’s take a look at Trevor Cahill. Last year Cahill had an outstanding season with 18 Wins and a 2.97 ERA but many pegged him as overvalued as his xFIP was 3.99 and he had a 4.19 FIP. The reason for the big differences was his .236 BABIP, the lowest mark of any qualified starting pitcher in 2010.

Also adding to the concern was a sub-par 5.40 K/9 and above-average 76.5 percent strand rate.

So, while many were expecting Cahill to crash and burn, he started out 2011 right where he left off last season. After 10 starts he had a 6-1 record and a 1.79 ERA. And his BABIP? It stood at a .259 mark. Perhaps the most surprising thing was that Cahill had 52 Ks in 65.1 IP. He was a star in all four starting pitching categories.

And then the wheels came off. In his last eight starts, Cahill is 2-5 with a 5.36 ERA. While his K rate was still above 2010, it slipped from earlier in the season, as he had 31 Ks in 47 IP. But the drop in strikeouts was nothing compared to the extra baserunners. Cahill saw his BABIP balloon to .315 and he allowed 79 men to reach base.

For the season his BB/9 sits at 3.85, nearly a full walk higher than last year’s rate. His WHIP, which checked in at 1.11 a year ago and was 1.10 after 10 starts, now is at 1.34 for the year. Cahill’s strand rate is almost exactly the same from 2010, but more runners on base means more runners crossing the plate.

Cahill still has a very respectable 3.28 ERA and both his FIP (3.84) and xFIP (3.66) are lower than what they were in 2010. So the question for fantasy players is: Was this the regression that was expected and is Cahill a 3.25-3.50 ERA-type pitcher, or is there still more correction to come?

Pitch Type Values show his breaking pitches essentially matching what he did in 2010 but the results from his fastball are just not there. In 2010, Cahill had a wFB of 27.7 while this year it checks in at just 1.4 for the year. On a per 100 pitches basis last year his fastball was at 1.43 (the fourth-best mark in the majors) and this year at 0.13 it’s essentially average.

Last year Cahill averaged 90.4 with his fastball and this year it checks in more than a full mph slower at 89.0. In his April 17th start against the Tigers, when he had 9 Ks in 8 IP, Cahill averaged 90.1 with his fastball. In his last start against the Marlins on June 30th, his average fastball velocity was just 87.4 mph.

A drop of three mph is significant and it is little wonder his fastball has not had the same success as a season ago. Until Cahill can recover that velocity, he is a risky fantasy play.

Last week Gavin Floyd was examined on Sunday night. He threw 14 IP and allowed 13 H, 3 BB and 8 Ks and was 0-1 for the week.

Happy 4th of July weekend to you all…

So some of the boys and I decided to test out our waiver wire skills and ran a quick little Deep League Waiver Wire draft.  We had to pick those that we thought would be the most productive for fantasy teams THIS season but had less than a 10% ownership mark using ESPN Fantasy as a guideline.  Since the pick’ns were pretty slim, we left the positions as follows:  C, CI, MI, OF, SP, RP.  I had the first pick of the four of us, so here’s what I did… Read the rest of this entry »