Jose Ceda and Alexander Torres: Mining the Minors
In this installment of Mining the Minors, we take a look at a pair of high-upside pitchers in Triple-A — one starter and one reliever — who pile up loads of strikeouts. And almost as many walks.
Archive for May, 2011
Two-Start Pitchers: Week 7
Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.
Jon Garland – After getting roughed up in his first start of the season, Garland has hurled four straight Quality Starts. One thing especially interesting about Garland this year is his batted ball profile. Typically a ground ball pitcher, Garland set a career-high with a 51.9 GB% last year. After five games in 2011, he has a career-low 36.8 GB%. Yet his HR/9 of 1.13 is essentially his career average. He has a home start against the Brewers and then goes on the road for his first start in U.S. Cellular since leaving the White Sox after the 2007 season. The Brewers are less potent on the road (.609 OPS) than they are at home (.852 OPS) and the White Sox are a below-average offensive team this year, so see if Garland is available in your league to stream this week.
Matt Garza – The overall fantasy numbers (strikeouts excepted) are nothing special for Garza this year but he has been pitching much better than his record shows. His xFIP is two full runs lower than his ERA and his FIP is even better. In his last five games, Garza has four Quality Starts and a 2.90 ERA. The matchups are not overly favorable to Garza this week, with two road starts, including one in an AL park, but he has been pitching well so do not be afraid to put him in your lineup this week.
Ubaldo Jimenez – Fantasy leaguers still consider Jimenez a must-start after last year’s sterling performance. But the truth is that Jimenez has not been good so far in 2011. It looked like he might be finally turning the corner with his start against the Giants in the first week in May but then he failed to get out of the fourth inning last time out against the Mets. His K/9 is better than last season and his BABIP is virtually identical to 2010. But Jimenez has a 6.67 BB/9 and is being victimized by the long ball, with 4 HR in 29.2 IP. He needs a spot on your bench until he shows something more.
Rick Porcello – The beginning of 2011 looked ugly for Porcello, who allowed 10 ER in 10 IP, with 4 BB and 6 Ks. But since then he’s yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start and has a 3.0 K/BB ratio, with 21 Ks in 31.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP are both close to his actual ERA of 3.67. Porcello is throwing more changeups this year but otherwise appears the same pitcher he’s typically been. It’s just that the results are better. With one home start and an Interleague game in Pittsburgh, the matchups are decent enough for him this week, so get him in your lineup.
Edinson Volquez – First off, if you have not already read it, immediately check out Cistulli’s piece on Volquez, which helps explain why a guy with great stuff is getting horrible results. Unfortunately, while there may be some reason for optimism for Volquez, it’s hard to get excited about a guy with a walk rate that high. Combine it with an elevated HR rate and it adds up to a guy who should be on your bench at this point in time.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
F. Hernandez, Lee, Hanson, Price, Johnson, J. Garcia, Cain, Shields, Marcum, Masterson, G. Gonzalez, Anderson, Burnett, Nolasco, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, Kuroda, Britton, Lewis, W. Rodriguez, Jackson, Lowe, Baker, Myers, Bailey, Stauffer, Zimmermann, Wolf, Duensing, Drabek, Lackey, Pineiro, Oswalt, Nova, Harrison, Pelfrey, Richard, Matsuzaka, Morton, Niese, Vargas, Westbrook, Coke, Litsch, Chatwood, Maholm, Lannan, Carrasco, Tillman, Galarraga, O’Sullivan, Mazzaro, Coleman, Mortensen.
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 5 pitchers and how they fared.
Dickey – Advised to start. 4 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.539 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
Hernandez – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 7.94 ERA, 2.118 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 ER
Jurrjens – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.93 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Leake – Advised to start. 5 Ks, 17.18 ERA, 2.182 WHIP, 3.2 IP, 7 ER
Tomlin – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 2.35 ERA, 0.391 WHIP, 7.2 IP, 2 ER
Brandon Beachy: Who Knew?
Leading up to the 2011 season, the Philadelphia Phillies’ Phantastic Four of Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt dominated any discussion about the NL East. Philly’s rotation has proven worth the hype, leading the majors in starting xFIP (2.69) by over half a run per nine frames. But the Atlanta Braves’ starters have been among the best in the majors, too, putting together a collective 3.35 xFIP that places second in the NL. While Philly’s rotation is fueled by guys making eight figure salaries, one of the key contributors for Atlanta is a rookie righty who didn’t hear his name called on draft day in 2008.
Within the course of a few years, Brandon Beachy has evolved from a part-time pitcher at Indiana Wesleyan who couldn’t buy a Kia with the free agent signing bonus that the Braves gave him ($20,000) to a starter who ranks among the likes of teammate Tommy Hanson and Clayton Kershaw in xFIP.
Joel Pineiro and Rick Porcello: Waiver Wire
Today’s Waiver Wire focuses on two ground ball pitchers who are enjoying good starts to their seasons, even though no one seems to be noticing.
Joel Pineiro: 11% owned
After five seasons (2004-2008) of being nearly unownable in anything other than deep AL or NL only leagues, Joel Pineiro has seen his career, both in real life and fantasy, rejuvenated by the addition of a sinker. He was taught the pitch by St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan while with the Cardinals in 2008. The next season he saw ground ball percentage jump 60.5%, more than 12 points higher than the season before. Pineiro also saw his ERA, FIP, and xFIP get below 4.00, the first time any of them had been that low since 2003. He took his new found success to Anaheim where he only pitched 152 innings, but won 10 games and had a very respectable triple slash line (ERA, FIP, xFIP) of 3.84/3.84/3.73.
Eric Hosmer, Julio Teheran, Jose Iglesias: Mining the Minors
As mentioned in Mining the Minors a couple weeks ago, timing is important when it comes to keeping tabs on minor-leaguers while they’re still, ya know, in the minor leagues. But knowledge was meant to be shared, not withheld. Hence, a second incarnation of this column is born — with the same 2011-or-bust focus for fantasy — only instead of highlighting players in the minors, this iteration will cover those who recently have either made their big-league debut or been recalled.
Similar to the other version of this column, which will still drop on Fridays, the Thursday edition will offer a quick take at lesser-known farmhands and veteran minor leaguers, but will also look at the top-end prospects, too — all with a nod to their fantasy relevance and impact for this season. To help owners, I’ll continue to include a player’s Talent Rating; but just as important is what I’m calling the Cling Factor, which points out the likelihood that a player will remain in the majors (or return, if already sent down) during this season.
Kotchman & Pena: 1B Risers
Let’s take a look at a pair of first baseman slowly inching their way towards fantasy relevance, or back to relevance in one case…
Kicking Rocks: Premature Draftulation
There’s really no need to be embarrassed. It’s a very common problem. In fact, I hear that it happens to a lot of fantasy owners. I, myself, have been known to experience it from time to time. No, no…I’m not just saying it to make you feel better. It happens to everyone. Believe it or not, even to girls. Read the rest of this entry »
AL SP Update: Tyson Ross’ Prospects
May 12, 2011
With Dallas Braden scheduled to undergo shoulder surgery next Monday and expected to miss the rest of the season, Tyson Ross‘ spot in the Oakland Athletics’ rotation just became a little more secure. With a 2.51 ERA on the season, his ownership percentage in CBS leagues has climbed from 3% to 12% since week 4. Let’s see if he is truly worth an add.
Head to Head: Pedroia vs Phillips
Today I will look at which of Dustin Pedroia or Brandon Phillips I would prefer to have as my 2B over the rest of the year. Pedroia has been a bit of a disappointment, while Phillips has had a better than expect season so far.
Joe Blanton: More Sinkers, More Success?
In today’s ultra-focused edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we take a look at Joe Blanton of the Philadelphia Phillies.