Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals | 50% Owned (Y!) | 57.5% Owned (ESPN)
The young righty didn’t exactly start the season out on a high note, as he struggled to strike batters out, and his ERA paid the price. However, Zimmermann has turned a corner as of late, and is looking like a darn good starting pitcher once again. Behold, as I give on to you split stats!

April: 29.2 IP, 4.25 K/9, 2.90 FIP, 4.55 ERA
May: 24.2 IP, 9.49 K/9, 2.70 FIP, 3.28 ERA

While Zimm’s April FIP looks awfully nice, his xFIP came in at around 4.00, so most of his work was done by keeping the ball in the yard. In May, however, his xFIP is in the low-3s.

Looking at some pitch f/x data, Zimmermann’s average fastball velocity is exactly the same as it was before he went under the knife, so it’s not like he’s trying to deal with a different arsenal of pitches at his disposal. His biggest problem has been a mediocre curveball that hasn’t been fooling hitters, but his fastball-slider combo is good enough to get righties out. He’s looking like he’s mixed-league worthy right now, and his ownership rates reflect that.

Tim Stauffer, Padres | 36% | 6.4%
Stauffer’s FIP and xFIP numbers look pretty darn good, and they have been backed up by good performances for most of this season. Over his past couple of starts, though, Stauffer has been hit around, and he still hasn’t picked up a win this year. I had the chance to watch Stauffer when he played the Mariners this past weekend, and he did not look sharp. Even though he kept the ball down in the zone and got a good deal of grounders, his fastball looked a little flat and his command was shaky at times. In my opinion, he was lucky to escape with a six innings and three earned runs. I still like the idea of Stauffer on my fantasy team, but you have to keep and eye on him during his next couple of starts to make sure he doesn’t blow up. If he doesn’t, he’s a great guy to have around.

Jordan Lyles, Astros | 0% | 0%
Lyles is Houston’s top prospect, at least according to our own Marc Hulet. Lyles isn’t anything spectacular, but he has a decent arsenal and has consistently posted FIPs in the 3s throughout his minor league career. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lyles up in the big leagues within a month or two, as the Astros need to take a look and see what they have long term with this guy. He won’t be great when he first comes up, but he could be a NL spot starter, at the very least.

Jonathan Broxton was a question mark coming into the season following his second half struggles in 2010, but the Dodgers had backup options in place in case he was unable to regain his past effectiveness. Hong-Chih Kuo had been one of the best relievers in all of baseball over the last few seasons, and the Dodgers also had the flamethrowing Kenley Jansen at their disposal. Vicente Padilla would also be in the mix once he recovered from offseason elbow surgery. Less than two months into the season, it’s all fallen apart in Chavez Ravine.

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Looking for outfield help with some pop to spruce up your fantasy roster?  Got a guy on your team mired in a slump and could stand to ride the pine for a week or two?  Deeper league owners should already be wise to these players (if you’re not, you’re probably sitting in last and could stand to pay some attention), but if you’re in a relatively shallow league, you might want to consider grabbing one of them.  Whether it’s to replace an injured Matt Holliday for a few games or a slumping Alex Rios for a couple of weeks, both of these guys can contribute, atleast for the short run. Read the rest of this entry »

Not every big fly is a home run.

Fantasy players in leagues that count slugging percentage know that they can find a competitive advantage in players that don’t hit home runs but do manage plenty of extra base hits. Those in ottoneu linear weights leagues know the same. So let’s look at some different players that have added value in leagues that count extra base hits that are not home runs.

The first idea that comes to mind is doubles power. Perhaps there are some players that hit doubles but don’t really have the power to get those balls over the wall (dirty). This year, the doubles leader is Michael Young, which might come as a surprise considering his two home runs so far. Other players with lower home run totals that appear in the top ten are Alex Gordon and Chipper Jones. Jacoby Ellsbury and Billy Butler are the only other surprises in the top ten.

The most attainable of this crew might be Gordon. He’s showing the best power of his career when measured by ISO (.181), but we know that statistic takes the longest to stabilize. Will his doubles power continue to offer value in non-home-run-centered leagues? It seems yes. Since strikeout rate stabilizes early and Gordon’s 21.4% strikeout percentage is the best of his career, we can assume that he’ll put more balls into play than in his average year. Contact percentage becomes reliable early as well, and his current 81.6% contact rate is well above his career number (76.8%). Put more balls into play with above-average career power (.163 ISO career, .150 is average), and you’ll end up at second base often enough. Consider trying to acquire Gordon if you need extra points in linear weights leagues, or some extra slugging percentage in OPS leagues.

Another way to add value in these non-traditional leagues is to show an above-average ISO when your home-run power is pedestrian. Most of the ISO leaderboard is conventional. Obviously Jose Bautista leads the list and Curtis Granderson and Mike Stanton follow closely. But you might be surprised to find Russell Martin and Shane Victorino rounding out the top 30 in that statistic.

Martin deserves some attention on his own because his work is superlative when seen in the context of his career. But Victorino has long been a secret boon in leagues that measure power in ways other than home runs. His career ISO is .153, but he’s bettered that mark since 2008. This year, by making more contact, he’s hitting the most fly balls of his career. That might seem like a poor idea for a speedy hitter, but obviously the Phillie center fielder has some power. Last year, Victorino did not hit 30 doubles for the third straight year, but he did manage to hit a career-high in home runs. if he doesn’t hit 20 home runs this year, expect him to challenge 30 doubles like he used to. Either way, Victorino, once healthy, will provide great power in leagues that can see past his pedestrian home run total.

Thank goodness for injuries opening up playing time for new blood or I would be out of a job. Injuries to Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth have provided opportunities for a one-time recent prospect and another one-time prospect who has become a productive bench bat.

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Entering the 2011 season, Wilson Ramos had three main obstacles standing between him and the Washington Nationals’ starting catcher job.

One was Ivan Rodriguez. Though Pudge hasn’t possessed offensive punch in years, Nationals manager Jim Riggleman dubbed the 39-year-old the main man behind the plate. Ramos’ other two obstacles were health and his tendency to hack at nearly everything thrown his way.

The 23-year-old broke the tip of his left middle finger and injured his hamstring in 2009, and he dealt with an oblique injury in 2010. Though he held his own in a short 82 plate appearance stint in the majors last year (.278/.305/.405), Ramos walked just 2.4% of the time while swinging at 38.2% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the MLB average is around 29 percent). Swinging early and often was nothing new for the backstop whom the Nats picked up from the Twins last July in exchange for Matt Capps — Ramos’ career walk rate in the minors sits at 5.5 percent.

Ramos has since leapfrogged Pudge on the depth chart, drawing the majority of starts. He has also stayed out of the trainer’s room and is showing a more refined approach at the plate. If you’re in need of catching help, it’s time to start taking this guy seriously.

In 122 trips to the plate this season, Ramos has a .262/.336/.430 triple slash. His .327 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) places him squarely in the middle of the pack among catchers with at least 100 PA. Ramos’ pop — he’s got a .168 Isolated Power that is comfortably above the .137 major league average — isn’t shocking, given that Baseball America said before the season that he “has good loft and leverage in his swing, giving him a chance to hit for solid-average or slightly better power in time.” Ramos’ patience, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise.

Batting mostly out of the fifth slot in Washington’s lineup, Ramos has jumped after pitches thrown out of the zone just 26.8% of the time. That, in turn, has allowed him to draw a walk in 9.8% of his plate appearances, above the 8.6% MLB average. Laying off those junk pitches means more hitter’s counts and chances for Ramos to utilize his power.

While changes in a hitter’s power production take a large sample size to become meaningful, that’s typically not the case with changes in plate discipline. Swing rates for batters become reliable after about 50 plate appearances, a mark that Ramos is well past at this point. Chances are Ramos’ increased patience in 2011 is more than a mere blip on the radar.

Despite the positive chances in Ramos’ plate discipline, he’s still on the waiver wire in 97-98 percent of ESPN leagues. This is a great time to add him to your roster on the cheap, before more people start taking notice of his quality bat. Ramos isn’t a top-tier catcher. But it’s a far better idea to take a chance on a maturing 23-year-old with a prospect pedigree than it is to settle for the A.J. Pierzynskis of the world.

Injury information courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’ Corey Dawkins.

Allow me to make an assumption. If you’re reading the roto-blog at FanGraphs you’re likely smarter than your league mates. We tend to attract a different kind of cat over here. You’re more rational. You have a deeper understanding of what makes baseball tick, and you use that information to outwit your lesser prepared league mates. That being said, you’re all aware of how fickle saves can be. If a closer has a few rough outings in a row, or a less than stellar ERA, people tend to freak out. Again, not you guys, those other people. Paying for saves on draft day tends to be a fruitless endeavor, but there’s no reason you can’t hoodwink an owner in May whose panicking over small sample sizes.

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On the morning of May 2nd, a fairly toasted Shin-Soo Choo flagged down a police cruiser and asked for directions home. As you know, the rest of his night went downhill from there, and for fantasy owners, the rest of his production has been pretty much downhill from there too.

While Choo isn’t the flashiest of players and he won’t single handedly carry you in a particular category, I wouldn’t blame owners if they figured they could pencil in a .300 batting average, 20 home runs, 20 steals, and 90 RBI on draft day and move on. But since the beginning of May, Choo has batted .236/.325/.361 with one home run and has struck out 29.2% of the time. Whether or not that incident has been the catalyst for such a slide, I don’t know, but Choo either presents a quandary for owners or a potential opportunity for trade mavens, so let’s dig in and see if we can’t unearth the cause.

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A brief (and terrible) joke: What is up with Nick Swisher?

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Let’s take a quick look at one of the more decimated outfields in the big leagues. The Atlanta Braves haven’t had a good outfield in years, but going into this season, they had trade acquisition Nate McLouth manning center and two home-cooked products in Martin Prado and Jason Heyward on the corners. It looked like it could be a decent-to-strong group and a change of pace for the Braves.

This weekend, Heyward went on the DL with his rotator cuff inflammation and McLouth left a game early with an oblique problem. That’s a good way to test your depth. Unfortunately, the Braves are short on depth in the outfield. Let’s look at the winners in this outfield mess.

Eric Hinske (4% owned in Yahoo, 8.3% in ESPN)
Obviously this career .256 hitter won’t continue to hit .355, especially when he’s out there playing every day. Most worrisome is what will happen when he goes up against lefties — some of his success this year have some from being hid versus same-handed pitchers (69 of 81 PAs have come against righties). He has a .300 OBP and .385 SLG against lefties, career, and those numbers go up to .347 and .456 against righties. If you can sit him against lefties, he makes for a good short-term pickup in deeper leagues just because he will be playing regularly and has a little pop. One note about his BABIP — since he’s been hitting balls on the ground more often this year, he actually has a .339 xBABIP. Yes, his .442 BABIP will regress, but it might not regress to his career .301 BABIP. He will probably put in the best seasonal batting average of his career this year.

Joe Mather (0% owned in Yahoo, 0.3% owned in ESPN
Acquired from the Cardinals in the offseason for outfield depth, Mather is now on fire in a small sample size. As a right-hander, he’ll probably work as Hinske’s caddy versus lefties — he’s not a center fielder by trade. He played all over the diamond in Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate (1B, 3B, LF, RF), but never in center, and he’s been moved to the corner outfield gradually over his career. On the other hand, despite being better against lefties in the minor leagues, Mather has not shown great numbers against major league lefties to date. His current swinging strike percentage (13.5%), paired with his BABIP (.545), suggests the batting average is headed for a nose dive.

The Rest
If McLouth hits the DL for an extended period of time for his oblique injury, a truer center fielder than Mather will be required. Diory Hernandez took over for McLouth in Sunday’s game, but the shortstop moved to third base, pushing Martin Prado back out to left fied and Mather in to center. Hernandez, however, hits like the defensive replacement he is. Could Jordan Schafer or Matt Young get the call? Both are better defensive center fielders, perhaps, than a career infielder. Neither is playing very well in Triple-A (.256/.309/.323 for Schafer and .255/.354/.306 for Young) but both are on the 40-man roster. Schafer is, however, showing the best strikeout rate of his career in the young season. If McLouth’s oblique is a problem, he might come up. If the new strikeout rate persists, he might be able to pair a decent batting average with some speed and a little bit of power (though, to be fair, the power has disappeared since 2009). Cautious interest, even in deeper leagues, is the best tactic here.