Our preseason reliever rankings were just that, reliever rankings. I’m going to break things up during the season, looking at closers and non-closers separately. There will be some overlap of course, but middle relievers don’t have much value in most leagues, so these rankings are based on the almighty save. As you’d expect, there’s already been a ton of changes since the season began. Guys have lost their jobs, others have gotten hurt, others have come out of (seemingly) nowhere. That’s just the name of the closer’s game. Let’s start off with three familiar names…

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Like vultures picking every last piece of meat off a carcass in the hot desert sun, it’s time for us to take another look at the waiver wire and see what remaining pieces of fantasy value lie in the pool of unwanted free agents… Read the rest of this entry »

Last week I introduced ottoneu Pick Six, a daily points game, and I wanted to update everyone on the recent updates to the game.  For those of you who don’t know, Pick Six is a game that takes less than 5 minutes to enter and lets you compete against other FanGraphs users on your ability to choose players for the day, with achievements for winning or accomplishing other feats.  It’s free to play, and you should definitely check it out.

The next time you visit the Pick Six site, your first stop should be the “Add Friends” tab.  You can now follow other users on Pick Six, allowing you to compare yourself to a subset of the day’s participants.  I think this is a pretty fun feature, but the real reason I am writing today is to share a few Pick Six users that you should consider following.

• nivshah – me, winner of May 3 (which means I totally know what I’m doing)
• Sarris – The captain of Team RotoGraphs
• Cistulli – Keeper of NotGraphs and general thorn in my side
• jhmoore, cloakedarbiter, Wolfersberger, zsanders, Allen – FanGraphs and RotoGraphs writers that all eat, breathe and live baseball (and sometimes also R)
• jinaz – Did the lion’s share of the work in developing the scoring system
• Steve Slow – Brought over the Sabermetrics library
• dooberfig, chy924, jpjazzman, Thad, jgshanas, jonathan1465 – Some of the participants in the original ottoneu league.  Also, not good at Pick Six, so good for your ego.

With over 200 participants in the first 6 days, I’m pretty sure I missed more than a couple of people you should be following.  In the comments, feel free to share your Pick Six profiles with each other, so you can add each other to your leaderboards.  Additionally, make sure to follow ottoneu on Twitter or Facebook for updates and so you can give more of the great feedback I’ve received so far.  Have fun, and good luck!

Clay Buchholz entered draft season as an obvious bust candidate to statistically-minded fantasy owners after finishing 2010 with the largest ERA-xFIP differential amongst qualified starters. However, Buchholz was at one point a top pitching prospect, like top three in all of baseball, and any scout would tell you that his stuff was good enough to make him one of the best young pitchers in the game. So the question was whether Buchholz’s ERA in 2011 would rise to the 4.00 level his xFIP suggested or if he would continue to improve his underlying skills while battling the luck regression gods, and see his ERA jump to just the low-to-mid 3.00 range. Well so far the bust side has been right, as he has posted a disappointing 4.81 ERA after six starts. Is it time to send his owner some offers? Nope.

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Of all the factors that go into making a successful fantasy trade, timing may be the most important. We’ve reached that point in the season where owners have experienced a month’s worth of data from their draft picks. Though we know a month’s worth of stats shouldn’t alter our expectations, it’s hard not to be frustrated with slow starters. This is where you might be able to take advantage of another owner in a trade. If you aren’t currently scouring your fantasy leagues, looking for undervalued trade-targets, you better start now. Until then, I’m here to help. Today, we’ll look at Brett Gardner as a player you should be targeting.
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The first month of the season has gone by. How is your team looking? Are you satisfied? Probably not, right? Does the urge to drive to Miami and beat up the slumping Hanley Ramirez grow stronger by the day? Are you sending threatening letters to Carlos Pena? Do you believe Jered Weaver’s hot start has been aided by the Luck Dragons?

If your answers to the above questions is “yes”, well, you may need more help than I am able to provide. However, if you feel capable of moving on, then may I suggest it time for you to start looking into the trade market. Today I’m going to focus on a pitcher with familiar names who, while off to great start, isn’t likely to keep up his current level of performance, creating an excellent sell high candidate.

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I still have the Aramis Ramirez experience fresh in my mind where I dumped him in frustration mid-June 2010 as he was struggling to hit even Congressional approval ratings. And then you know what he did in the second half — he turned into, well, Aramis Ramirez — hitting .276/.321/526. Ergo, I’ve become particularly attentive to the don’t-overreact approach.

While not having the major league success nor pedigree that Aramis Ramirez boasts, Pedro Alvarez and his start to the 2011 season reminds me a lot of this situation. Being your third base guy for the season, I wanted to take a deeper look at his struggles (sample size be damned) and see whether or not he’s planning on pulling an Aramis Ramirez on you going forward. For good measure, we’ll also peek at Chone Figgins and his continued struggles.

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Maybe it’s just because I’ve been keeping such close watch on my AL outfielders beat, but it seems that no position in fantasy baseball has seen more fluctuation in the first month of the season than this one. There are former studs still hitting sub-.200 (here’s to you, Carl Crawford, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells) while lesser-thought of has-beens are piling up RBIs (hello, Jeff Francoeur, Alex Gordon and Johnny Damon). And that’s to say nothing of a fella named Sam Fuld who’s gone from complete after-thought to straight up legen — wait for it — dary.

How do we make sense of such who-could’ve-seen-this-coming-ness? Why, by updating the RotoGraphs AL outfielders rankings, of course!

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A couple weeks ago, we updated the National League outfielder rankings. This week, we update a couple players that weren’t even on those rankings.

Jason Bourgeois, Houston (1% owned in Yahoo, 0.8% in ESPN)
Jason Bourgeois has no power, like none at all. His career ISO (.065) would put him at 19th-worst in the category among qualified players this year and his minor league power rates don’t suggest that he has much upside beyond. He also dodesn’t walk a ton. His 7.4% career rate is below average, he hasn’t walked in 36 plate appearances so far this year, and his best minor league walk rate in a season with more than 200 plate appearances was almost exactly average – 8.0% in Double-A with the Mariners in 2006. There also isn’t much to get excited about in terms of pedigree or prospectitude. He’s 29 years old and has been shuttling between Triple-A and the majors for four years now. He’s your typical fourth or fifth outfielder – not really a center fielder according to defensive metrics, but without the power you’d expect from a corner outfielder. Here’s the thing though. He has speed (30 stolen bases between Triple-A and the majors for the Astros last year) and doesn’t really strike out much (13.6% career, 11.1% this year). Oh, and Carlos Lee has a rib contusion, so he may have a bougie last name, but he also has some playing time coming. Deep leaguers that need steals, take note.

Xavier Paul, Pittsburgh (0% owned in Yahoo, 0.1% in ESPN)
Another flawed player stuck without the profile of either a traditional center fielder or corner outfielder, Xavier Paul has turned up where all failed prospects eventually tread: Pittsburgh. Now that Jose Tabata may need some time to rest his hamstring, Paul is in line for more playing time. Paul has shown a little more power away from Los Angeles, but is also striking out about two-fifths of the time. Most likely, he strikes out less and his .500 BABIP returns to earth, and the two effects cancel each other out to an extent. Expect an okay batting average with a handful of steals in the next couple weeks, but it’s unlikely that Paul unseats anyone. Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz fit together like a glove because of their platoon splits, and Andrew McCutchen is not going anywhere. Paul is more of a deep league injury replacement than a speculative pick because his lack of power and centerfield glove are flaws he may not overcome.

The calendar just flipped to May, so even the most patient fantasy owners among us must start re-evaluating roster spots. Here’s two young players that could help…

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