Archive for April, 2011

Josh Hamilton Out – Enter David Murphy

Earlier today, we learned that Josh Hamilton would miss six-to-eight weeks with a non-displaced fracture of his humorous bone. Check that, humerus – it’s not very funny for Rangers fans and Hamilton owners, after all. Badumching. What does this mean for the Rangers? We’ll be right along with plenty of waiver wire replacements, but the Rangers will obviously need to move things around.

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Shortstops: Early Season Additions

It’s been over a month since we debuted the shortstop player rankings. We’re only a little over a week into the season so it’s too early to make any significant changes to the rankings, but there have been many surprises among the position. Let’s take a look at a few of the more interesting players that have emerged thus far:

Willie Bloomquist

If I gave you 100 guesses at naming the third ranked overall player so far according to Yahoo! I’m betting no one would guess its Willie Bloomquist. The usually light hitting shortstop, who has never ended a season in which he gathered 100+ PA’s with an OPS over .700, is tearing the cover off of the ball. Originally filling in for the injured Stephen Drew, Bloomquist’s triple slash line of .394/.429/.524 with six stolen bases looks like a misprint. Now that Drew is back, Diamondbacks Manager Kirk Gibson has tried to find ways to keep Bloomquist’s bat in the lineup, playing him in left field the past two games. There’s zero reason to believe he’ll keep hitting anywhere close to this pace. His K% is only 6.1 so far, down from 17.5% for his career. The reduced strikouts are resulting in more line drives falling for hits; his LD% is up ~9% from last season. His ownership numbers are jumping by the day, but if you want to ride a hot hitter who will pick you up some cheap steals at a weak position there are worse options than Bloomquist. That’s a sentence I never thought I’d type.

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American League Outfielders: Manny Fallout

As you’ve all seen/read/heard by now, the big news late last week revolved around one Manuel Aristides Ramírez Onelcida and his abrupt retirement from baseball. Expected to be a big part of the Rays’ offense when he signed in the offseason, Ramirez said goodbye after just 17 (mostly hitless) at-bats rather than face whatever “issue” he was alerted of by MLB’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Our Jonah Keri chimed in with his immediate reaction in the wake of the news, but let’s break down the fantasy fallout of Manny’s decision.

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NL OF: Mike Morse, Allen Craig

Let’s take a look at a couple National League outfielders that might be interesting for teams of different depths.

Michael Morse (20% owned in Yahoo, 2.8% owned in ESPN)
Maybe ESPN has fewer five-outfield leagues. Maybe Yahoo has more NL-only leagues. ESPN’s projections aren’t fabulous – a .341 OBP with 15 home runs – but you’d think that would be owned in more than 2.8% of all leagues. Let’s not get too up in arms about this, though, because Morse is making it tough for us to love him. Yes, he’s playing at first base with Adam LaRoche feeling his sore shoulder, but its unlikely he’s going to be worth much more as a corner infielder than a fifth outfielder. The thing that is most concerning about his early-season work is his strikeout rate. So far he’s struck out in a third of his at-bats after putting up a 23.9% percentage over his career. It’s in a small sample size, but given that Morse struck out in 30.1% of his 55 PAs in 2009 and 24.1% of his 293 PAs last year, and that makes up about half of his 717 career major league PAs, we shouldn’t be sure that we know his true-talent-level strikeout rate just yet.

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Disabled List: Cody Ross, Jair Jurrjens, Chris Snyder

Cody Ross (calf) – 4.1% owned (ESPN) – Currently, it looks like Ross is not going to be back in the lineup for 2 more weeks. He seems to be recovering fine, but the real story here is who will be the odd man out once he returns to the Giants. Right now Torres (currently with a Achilles’ tendon issue that looks to have him out a week), Huff and Burrell are manning the outfield positions in San Francisco with Belt at first base. One of these 4 players or Ross will have to sit on the bench once he returns.

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Waiver Wire: April 11th

Two starters and an outfielder as you contemplate whether or not Willie Bloomquist is actually worth a roster spot…

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Deep League Waiver Wire: Chris Getz, Rick Ankiel, Felipe Lopez

Here are three players to keep your eye on in deeper leagues.

Chris Getz | 2% Owned (Y!) | 1% Owned (ESPN)
In terms of fantasy baseball, I’ve always been a Chris Getz fan-boy. I’m not exactly sure why, but a second baseman who could hit .275 with 20-plus steals is always someone to keep on your radar. Getz hasn’t yet hit .275 in his career, but g-d it I think he will. On the plus side, Getz doesn’t strike out all that often, and he does have the ability to steal bases, as he’s stolen 42 bags in his last 47 attempts. Getz has also been hitting at the top of the Royals lineup on occasion, so he could have some value in the “runs” category.

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Early Starting Pitcher Velocity Changes

It may be a bit early to analyze velocity changes as pitchers continue to build up arm strength and we are still working with tiny sample sizes, but as you could tell by now, I am a sucker for comparisons and ranking lists. We all know that velocity has a significant impact on a pitcher’s effectiveness and all else equal, the higher the velocity, the better the results. When a pitcher suddenly experiences an increase or decrease in his average fastball velocity, it could portend a change in performance, for better or for worse. Since fantasy owners sometimes jump on pitchers quickly after just one strong outing, it is important to identify the velocity changers early on before it becomes obvious in their results.

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Catchers Stock Watch: Risers and Fallers

While the tiers we established in our aggregate pre-season rankings gave you a sound foundation for your draft, you knew there was going to be some movement amongst the backstops.  I’m aware that we’re dealing with a small sample size of at bats, but if you’ve got a guy who’s hot, why not use him while you can? Or, if he’s cold, bench him for now and get yourself a temporary replacement.  Let’s look at a few names of backstops that are both rising and falling in current value. Read the rest of this entry »


Week 2 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 2 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

F. Hernandez, Price, Cahill, Burnett, Duensing, Pineda, Richard, Matsuzaka, Francis, Tillman, Penny, Litsch, Talbot.

Pitcher no longer scheduled for two starts: Stauffer

Of the new pitchers, Jeff Francis is an interesting one to examine. After missing all of the 2009 season recovering from shoulder surgery, Francis came back to pitch 104.1 innings for the Rockies last year. A free agent following the 2010 season, the former 17-game winner had to sign an incentive-heavy, $1 year/$2 million deal with the Royals.

While winless in his first two starts, Francis has pitched into the seventh inning both games and has a 1.98 ERA along with a solid 3.28 xFIP. He’s getting more swings out of the zone (31.3 O-Swing%) and batters are making less contact than normal. It makes him an interesting candidate for his two starts this week and he potentially has some favorable pitching matchups.

In his first game this week, Francis squares off against Brian Duensing and the Twins. In his first start, Duensing’s velocity was down 2 mph from his average last year. Plus Minnesota is next to last in the American League with a 2.62 runs per game average.

Francis’ second start comes against rookie sensation Michael Pineda. Dave Cameron reviewed Pineda’s first start and concluded that Pineda has some work to do with his off-speed offerings to lefty batters, who managed two doubles and a triple in his game against the Rangers. The Royals can stack a lineup full of lefties to face Pineda, including the red-hot Alex Gordon, along with Chris Getz, Melky Cabrera, the Kila monster and Wilson Betemit.

While those names might not strike fear into many hearts and minds, that group has led the Royals to a 6-3 start to the season. Available on the waver wire in most leagues, Francis is a potential pickup to stream for his two starts this week.