After blowing four saves in five chances, Ryan Franklin lost hold of his closer’s job for the Cardinals over the weekend. In his first crack at redeeming himself yesterday, the veteran right-hander allowed a solo homer (to Laynce Nix!) in two innings of work against the Nationals, coming into the 7th inning of game when St. Louis trailed by two. Clearly, he’s got a long way to go before reclaiming his job. But what about the guy that replaced him?
For years I have preached about the immense depth at starting pitching. You can find plenty of quality starters for cheap in your draft and, with the help of the waiver wire, can build a successful fantasy rotation without having to invest heavily in an ace or two. With a nice complement of some quality relievers, you can go cheap on starters and, in turn, bulk up on better hitters. In the end, your team dominates in the offensive categories, puts up a solid showing in almost all of the pitching categories, and leaves you at the top of your standings by season’s end. Read the rest of this entry »
When I first started playing fantasy baseball around 15 years ago and for many years after that, it was ingrained in my head that I should never draft rookie pitchers or add them to my roster (12 team mixed leagues, obviously in Only leagues, this would be difficult to pull off). I followed this for a while, always avoiding rookies and ignoring the hype. But as new statistical methods of evaluating pitchers became more mainstream and I learned how to use these methods, I realized that rookie pitchers should not automatically be discarded and expected to deliver minimal fantasy value. So I now have no problem drafting and rostering rookie pitchers and evaluate each pitcher on his own, forgetting about whether the rookie label is slapped on or not. With that wordy introduction out of the way, let’s take a look at how some of the top rookie pitchers have fared so far.
Last week I looked at a few 2B that were getting more playing time than expected when the season began. I have continue on this week looking at 3 more 2B that weren’t expected to have much of an impact this season.
Jonathan Herrera: 39 PA/0.359 AVG/1 HR/4 SB – 36% owned – The 26 year old Herrera has been a pleasant surprise this season for the Rockies. Even though he didn’t start the season at 2nd base, he has only been benched twice since starting in game six and has taken advantage of the situation.
He currently has a slash line of 0.359/0.510/0.513. Along with getting on base half the time, he is showing some of his speed by swiping 4 SBs so far this season. Also, he is a nice source of runs, 10 in just 12 games played. The amount of runs scored should not really be a surprise for someone getting on base 1/2 of the time and has CarGo, Tulo and Helton hitting after him.
There is no way that he is going to continue to get on base at his current clip, but if he ends up batting 0.300, with 100 runs and 20 SBs, he may just be one of the top fantasy steals of the year.
Jayson Nix: 42 PA/0.238 AVG/2 HR/3 SB – 3% owned – Nix is qualified at second base, but is getting all his playing time this season at 3B. He is doing OK. The 28 year old currently has a slash line of 0.238/0.360/0.429 to go along with 2 home runs and 3 stolen bases. His 0.238 may look low, but it is actually a career high for him which is being helped by a career high BABIP of 0.308.
His major problem has been that he has struck every third time he come to the plate. He may regress a bit to his lifetime rate of striking out 1/4th of the time. His walk rate of 16% has help his baseball value, but for fantasy leagues that use AVG, those walks are of no help. Toronto has now placed him at the bottom of the lineup in 6 of the last 8 games, so he will have less at bats and chances to score or drive in runs.
Right now Nix looks like an replacement level option at 2nd base in deep or AL only leagues.
Chris Getz: 57 PA/0.263 AVG/0 HR/2 SB – 2% owned – Getz has started all but 2 games at 2nd base for the Royals this season. Getz is mainly known for his defense and that is why he has been playing quite a bit. He has little fantasy value though. He will probably hit around 0.260 and generate no home runs. He does steal a few bases and since he is usually in the 1st or 2nd spot in the lineup, he may score a few runs this season.
Another problem is that his playing time is not assured. The Royals right now have Getz, Aviles and Betemit swapping between 2nd and 3rd base. Getz started the season hot compared to Aviles, so he has gotten more playing time recently. Getz has sense cooled off, so Aviles may be seeing more time at second. Betemit and his 1.010 OPS looks entrenched at 3B for now. This situation becomes even more jumbled once the Royals call up top prospect Mike Moustakas to play 3B.
Right now Getz is a possible option at 2nd base in deep or AL only leagues for owners that are needing some SB help.
The Ryan Franklin and Joe Nathan/Matt Capps stuff is old news by now, but let’s get you caught up on some others in danger of losing their jobs…
In today’s edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we look at three starters who aren’t as good as they seem to be.
While the obvious strategy is to have everyday players in your lineup to achieve maximum offensive production, sometimes, it makes sense to go with a platoon player. Maybe the at bats aren’t as regular — maybe he gets only three or four starts per week. But if his numbers are solid and he’s outproducing some of your regulars, then why not give him a try. Here’s a pair of platooners worth a look right now… Read the rest of this entry »
It’s time to check in on the FanGraphs Experts League! You can see the full rosters in this introductory post.
Our intrepid hero is doing ‘comme ci comme ca’ as the French say – in seventh out of twelve. I’m not sure exactly which direction I should tack. Clearly, playing Ryan Raburn in my MI spot hasn’t worked out so well – perhaps it’s time to use one of my FOUR FAAB DOLLARS to drop Josh Thole (my third catcher) or David Hernandez (my J.J. Putz handcuff) and pickup a middle infielder. The problem with that idea is that, with 40-man rosters, I’m stuck looking at Jonathan Herrera and Felipe Lopez. In a twelve-teamer. Maybe it’s time for a trade.
I hope it’s not time to cash in a prospect for this problem. I still have high hopes for Travis Snider. I wonder if the commissioner (Amateur Hour) would give me his $2 Orlando Hudson or $1 Freddy Sanchez for my $3 Erik Bedard, $1 Aaron Harang, or $2 Matt LaPorta? I wonder if I would do that. With Josh Johnson, Mat Latos, Ricky Romero, Jaime Garcia and John Danks as my starting five, I could perhaps trade some pitching – perhaps I should put $1 Jarred Cosart on the block. In the meantime, I’m going to start chatting up Team Rotowire about Howie Kendrick, who has probably hit half of his yearly home run total already.
Let’s take a look at the leader right now. Earl Webb, run by BaseballHQ writer Neil FitzGerald. My first inclination is to say that he won’t stick around in first for very long, but after more inspection, I’m not sure. His veteran team is certainly propped up by some fast starts – Alex Rodriguez, Paul Konerko and Matt Kemp, in particular, have performed ‘ably’ in the early going. As those batting averages regress to career norms, he may have some uncomfortable moments. The back end of the Earl Webb rotation is also iffy – he has two of John Lackey, Scott Baker and James Shields running out there every day, and no minor league prospects that might restock him in the future.
In general, that’s the team’s weakness: It’s very old. Ben Revere, Lorenzo Cain and Carlos Carrasco might be his youngest players. Perhaps he’ll be able to sell some extra pieces for prospects. Saaaay… stopgap MI Chris Getz to me for young pitcher? He certainly won’t be hunting on the waiver wire unless someone loans him some money.
On the other hand, by being a veteran team, he doesn’t have any glaring holes (like my MI problem). His worst everyday players in the lineup are probably Austin Jackson and Vernon Wells. It gets much, much worse than that.
Today’s Deep League Waiver provides fantasy owners with a potential third base replacement for Ian Stewart and my first dive into the pitching free agent pool.
Two weeks into the fantasy season, frustration can mount pretty easily. Even though “small sample size” has been pounded into your head, it’s still tough to deal with two weeks worth of failure. Thankfully, there’s still value out on the waiver wire. Some popular pre-season sleepers may have been dropped (or not even drafted) in your leagues. While it may have taken two weeks, these players are heating up and you might be able to take advantage of their hot streaks. Matt Joyce and Russell Branyan are two players that fit this bill perfectly.
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