Archive for April, 2011

Waiver Wire and the DL: Brown, Blake, Garland and Pineiro

This season I am looking at players that are currently on the DL, but are expected to come off of it soon. I am not going to look at any players owned in over 50% of all leagues, instead I want to focus on players that might be available in most leagues. These players should be picked up soon because they look to be coming off the DL within a month or so.

All owned rates are from ESPN

Domonic Brown (2.7% owned) – Wrist – Dominic’s return to the Phillies looks to be in late April right now. He entered the season with high expectations, but his wrist injury set him back. Of the players I am looking at today, he has the most upside, dominate power source, and the most downside, might not even play in the majors depending on how the other outfielders are doing in Philly. Another concern with me is his wrist injury. He may not have as much power as it usually takes a year to fully heal from a wrist injury.

Casey Blake (1.5% owned) – Ribs/Back – At age 37, he is not going to be a stud on your team. In deep or NL only leagues though, he may be a reasonable option at 3B, especially if you are needing a little power. Also, he may be platooned with another mediocre to below average 3B and used to facilitate better match ups. His exact time table for return is unknown, but he was originally trying to be ready by opening day.

Joel Pineiro (21.3% owned) – Shoulder – Joel is being dumped in many leagues (-15.6%), but looks to only miss a week to start the season. He should be a reliable starter once he is back healthy. The only big knock will be his shoulder. Shoulder problems just seem to keep coming back. Also, it is not generally a good idea to start an injured pitcher the first game back from the DL in case the injury is not healed, instead wait for him to get back into a grove.

Jon Garland (5.5% owned) – Oblique – Jon’s return is a little less for certain, but he is looking to be back in the rotation within the month. He may not put up great stats, but the home games in spacious Dodger’s stadium never hurt.


$2 Shortstops in Ottoneu Points Leagues

Let’s say you blew all of your money on Albert Pujols, Michael Pineda, and Eric Hosmer, and need a super-cheap shortstop in an ottoneu fangraphs points league.  Or, maybe you’re scrambling because Stephen Drew is dealing with his day-to-day, negative-MRI, weeks-old abdominal injury.  You have $2 to spend, and you need a shortstop with a job.  Here are shortstops who have been going for two bucks in ottoneu points leagues:

Name wOBA:ZiPS wOBA:Oliver TAv:PECOTA Average %Owned
Jason Bartlett 0.318 0.312 0.254 0.295 47%
Brent Morel 0.308 0.308 0.252 0.289 47%
Miguel Tejada 0.317 0.304 0.246 0.289 50%
Erick Aybar 0.304 0.301 0.236 0.280 37%
Alex Gonzalez 0.305 0.290 0.236 0.277 43%
Clint Barmes 0.295 0.293 0.240 0.276 3%
Orlando Cabrera 0.291 0.290 0.235 0.272 7%
Brendan Ryan 0.277 0.269 0.232 0.259 7%

Since it’s a FanGraphs Points league, we can get a good idea of value by simply ranking players based on your favorite offensive rate stat, be it wOBA here or at Hardball Times, or TAv at BPro.  I took a dumb average of the three projections just so we could get an overall ranking, but the average itself has no meaning in and of itself.

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Small Sample Size Musings: Venters & Kimbrel

A few weeks ago in Spring Training, new Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said that he planned to use lefty Jonny Venters and righty Craig Kimbrel as co-closers at the start of the year, basing their usage on matchups. It’s a great plan; a manager deserves to be applauded for not marrying himself to one set ninth inning guy and instead optimizing his bullpen, even if it creates headaches for us fantasy players. Yet when the time came yesterday, here’s how Fredi played his cards with two-run lead…

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