Here are the results from this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing, and I’m bothered by what you all had to say about Lee.

Robinson Cano
My vote: 7
Average: 7.7
Median: 7.5
Std Dev: 3.3

There isn’t much to talk about after these votes. We were all in agreement when it came to Cano, with all of us being pretty confident that he’ll go in the second half of the first round. The seventh pick is right where he deserves to go, but owners shouldn’t be blamed for getting a little bit excited and selecting him as early as fourth or fifth, because he could very well be worth it.

Cliff Lee
My vote: 40
Average: 24.8
Median: 24
Std Dev: 8.74

I’m ashamed of all of you for making me look so foolish, so I guess I need to say something about the disparity in our votes. First, in what world would owners pick Lee at the 2-3 turn? Because I’m pretty confident it’s not this one. In the small sample of mock drafts that I’ve been involved in, Lee has gone during the middle of the fourth round. Granted, these were before he chose to play in Philly, but has his value really gone up that dramatically? I seriously doubt it. He may go at the 3-4 turn, but I think you all are a good 10-12 picks off here, and even a fairly generous standard deviation doesn’t reach that mark. Like a great author once said, “I may be wrong, but I doubt it.”

This is the first time I’ve looked at the results and though y’all were just flat out wrong. What am I missing here? I desperately need voters to defend themselves in the comments, so please do so.

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPs projections for the Astros came out today, and the projections for that lineup are a depressing sight for Astros fans – or keeper-league owners with the misfortune of owning Astros. Let’s cover some of the low-lights, which happen to comprise the corner infield and middle of the lineup, here.

Brett Wallace: .261/.324/.414 with 17 HR and 59 RBI
We should have known this would be ugly when Bill James refused to project Wallace despite the fact that Wallace is probably the starting first baseman for the Astros this upcoming season. ZiPs projects a poor power output for a first baseman – his .153 ISO would prove to be barely above the .145 overall average last year, and squarely below the number qualified first baseman averaged (.203 ISO). Worse even are his plate discipline stats (32/129 K/BB). This kind of production might play while the Astros are in transition, but it won’t be a long-term solution, and if anyone steps to the fore and looks ready in 2011, they might even get a look this season. The only way that Wallace makes a good fantasy pick is if he drops too far (bench picks?) in a deep league draft – and even then, he’s probably a better late corner infield or utility solution than a first baseman. We always knew that Wallace had some stats that were inflated by his relative age and run environments, but these projections really hammer it home. This is why all his teams traded him.

Chris Johnson: .269/.303/.429 with 16 HR and 73 RBI
As bad as it sounds, having two mediocre corner infielders puts the Astros’ corner infield in the middle of baseball when it comes to at least one statistic. Their combined projected .160 ISO would have ranked 15th (tied with the Phillies!) in the league last year. Let’s hear it for the average guys! We all knew that last year’s .387 BABIP wouldn’t make it into the projections, and with his plate discipline last year (4.1% BB, 26.7% K) it’s no surprise to see that batting average plummet. What Johnson has going for him – that Wallace doesn’t – is his position. Last year, qualified third basemen put up a .174 ISO, which puts Johnson (.160 ISO) much closer to average at his position. The problem with these two men in fantasy, however, is that it’s much more likely that someone in your league values their upside just because of their age. And if they value their upside, they’ll pick them before you can. If your investment in Johnson is commensurate with the value of, say, the 20th-best third baseman in fantasy baseball – then he’s a value.

Pitchers can’t control every aspect of the game around them including the the defense behind them. A team’s defense can effect a pitcher’s WHIP and ERA by letting more batted balls turn into hits (increasing WHIP) therefore leading to more runs allowed (increasing ERA). The following is a look at how much a team’s defense could effect a pitcher’s ERA or WHIP.

Read the rest of this entry »

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we stay with the topical trend. We are using pick number instead of round again, so please vote accordingly.

We all knew that Cliff Lee was going to make a big splash in free agency, and that he would have a large and lasting effect on the teams involved. But, we all assumed those teams were the Yankees and Rangers, not the Phillies.

One of the good things about Cliff Lee returning to Philadelphia is that we already have a sample, albeit a relatively small one, in place. During his 80 innings (okay, you caught me, 79.2 innings) in the NL, Lee struck out over a batter an inning, and posted his best swinging-strike rate since his 52 inning year in 2003. His FIP was a tremendous 2.83, and we can all remember how dominant he was in the playoffs.

Lee is already 32-years old, and will turn 33 before the 2011 season ends. However, he does not rely on velocity, and his control appears to be the sharpest it’s ever been. The defense behind him will be more than adequate, especially in the infield, and getting to face pitchers once again will benefit his numbers. With all the free agency hype, will Lee’s value be overblown? Or could Lee actually be undervalued because of his lack of strikeouts? It’s your job to decide.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. This time around, we’re using pick number instead of round, as it works a little better for top players. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here. And while you’re at it, why not submit a fan projection for Lee by clicking here?

While everyone in New York and around the country is focused on the free agent the Yankees didn’t sign, let’s talk about the one they did. MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports that the team has signed catcher Russell Martin to contract of unknown terms (presumably one year), and he’ll now take over as their regular starting catcher with Jorge Posada shifting into the designated hitter role. The move impacts not just those two, but uberprospect Jesus Montero as well.

Read the rest of this entry »

First baseman Carlos Pena revived his career in Tampa, transforming from a disappointing former top-10 draft pick who passed through Texas, Oakland, Detroit, the Bronx and Boston to an offensive force. From 2007-2009, Pena had a .252/.382/.553 batting line, with a .393 wOBA that tied him with Miguel Cabrera for 14th among qualified MLB hitters over that time frame.

Unfortunately, Pena’s free agent walk year wasn’t near as impressive: the lefty masher hit .196/.325/.407 in 2010, and his wOBA nosedived to a career-low .326. That’s a solid number for a slick-fielding shortstop or center fielder, but hardly sufficient for a player at a power position. The Chicago Cubs recently signed Pena to a one-year, $10 million deal, hoping that the 32-year-old keeps the Bleacher Bums at Wrigley busy with a bounce back performance.

What caused Pena’s quiet year at the plate, and is he primed for a comeback in Chicago? Let’s try to find out.

Pena’s plate patience wasn’t a source of concern, as his 26.6% rate of swinging at pitches tossed out of the strike zone was well below the 29.3% big league average. Not going all Francoeur at the plate leads to hitter’s counts. According to Baseball-Reference, Pena got ahead in the count against pitchers in 42.8% of his plate appearances. For comparison, the 2010 American League average was 35.5%. It’s no surprise, then, that Pena walked in 14.9% of his PA. Among qualified batters, only Daric Barton and Prince Fielder took a leisurely stroll to first base more often.

However, while Pena remained a walk machine, his power declined. A .211 Isolated Power is hardly poor, but that figure was well below Pena’s previous work with the Rays: a .345 ISO in 2007, .247 in 2008 and a .310 mark in 2009.

Pena rarely hit a ground ball during his first three years in Tampa, but that changed this past season. He grounded out just 33% from ’07 to ’09 (44% MLB average). In 2010, he chopped the ball earthward 44.9% of the time. That spike in worm burners certainly didn’t help Pena’s power output. Based on Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s website, here are Pena’s ground ball rates by pitch type since 2008 (the first year for which the site has data). To provide more context, I also included MLB ground ball averages by pitch type from The Hardball Times’ Harry Pavlidis:

Pena saw an across-the-board increase on grounders, hitting more breaking and offspeed stuff into the dirt than the average MLB batter. His grounder rate on fastballs, though still below the big league average, shot up considerably as well.

Pena has long been a dead pull hitter, sizzling many of the balls that he puts in play to the right side…

…and many of those extra grounders came on pulled pitches. Those power-sapping ground balls, coupled with a very low BABIP, made Pena a lousy pull hitter this past year:

From ’07 to ’09, Pena was a prodigious pull hitter. According to our new expanded splits section, his .555 wOBA when pulling over that period was sixth-best among big league batters. But this past year, his wOBA to the right side of the field was a full 40 points worse than the average lefty batter.

Pena’s performance when hitting to center also suffered compared to past years, with more grounders, less pop and a lower BABIP:

He fared very well when putting the ball in play to the opposite field, but keep in mind he rarely goes to the opposite field:

With few hits falling to the pull side and to center, Pena’s overall BABIP nosedived to .222. From 2007-2009, Pena’s BABIP was .283.

Pena, of course, is often subject to a defensive shift that moves fielders more toward his pull side. Over at The Baseball Analysts, Jeremy Greenhouse did find that shifted hitters on the whole have a lower BABIP than non-shifted hitters, and that Pena’s ground ball angle (he hits lots of grounders toward the second baseman) is particularly shift-worthy.

But, while there’s little reason to expect Pena’s BABIP to approach .300, it’s also unlikely that it will remain over 50 points below his career mark. His batting average is never going to be pretty, but he’s more apt to hit in the .230s-.240s next year than below the Mendoza Line.

The key for Pena is to keep the ball off the ground. Those ground balls hurt his power numbers, and they’re especially damaging for a slow-footed slugger subject to a defensive shift.

Happily, he is moving from a park that damages lefty power to one that boosts it considerably — according to StatCorner, Tropicana Field depresses HR production by 11 percent compared to a neutral park, while Wrigley pumps it up by 19 percent. There’s little chance that Pena produces like he did during his peak years in Tampa. But with better luck and a more favorable offensive environment, Pena’s triple-slash could look an awful lot like his career averages: .241/.351/.490. Maybe not “Holy Cow!” worthy, but not bad either.

How do you think Pena will fare in Chicago? Make sure to submit a 2011 projection here.

Adam Dunn and the White Sox seemed like a fit since day one. Kenny Williams wanted a lefty run producer, and Dunn wanted a lot of years and a lot of money. It was a match made in hot stove heaven, and you can insert a generic “Dunn deal” pun here. Four years and $56M took care of things, and now one of the game’s premier power hitters joins a team that sorely needed a left-handed thumper.

Read the rest of this entry »

A quick look at a post by Jack Moore at RotoHardball shows the benefit a change in lineup can make. In short, the difference between batting second and batting fifth can be as much as .33 plate appearances a game, or around 50 a season.

A quick look at the nearest newswire will show you that the Red Sox have managed to revamp their lineup in just a few short days. At issue is what the new lineup will look like, especially since the team is now so lefty-heavy. It may not mean the difference between a good and bad season, but 50 plate appearances is not something to sneeze at.

In the last week, Buster Olney famously submitted his new lineup and then Carson Cistulli updated it by using Baseball Musing’s lineup optimizer tool. These two lineups are pretty different, but there is one similarity worth discussing further from a fantasy angle.

Yes, both the stat-head lineup and the traditional lineup feature Jacoby Ellsbury in the nine-hole. Maybe one focused on his 6.7% career walk rate, and the other was looking at Ellsbury as the ‘second leadoff man,’ but the results were clear enough that they strongly suggest that’s where Ellsbury will end up. That’s not a good thing for those projecting a bounce-back for Ellsbury.

It’s not that he can’t have success at the bottom of the order. It’s just that we have to temper the plate appearances. In 2009, he racked up 693 plate appearances – and that would make the Bill James’ projection (674 plate appearances) seem reasonable. However, Ellsbury had 504 plate appearances in the leadoff spot that year, where the average player (per Tango’s The Book) has 4.83 plate appearances per game. In the nine hole, Ellsbury could expect to see 3.90 plate appearances per game. That’s almost a full plate appearance per game.

Let’s take that .93 PA per game away from his 2009 numbers then. That’s a full 150 plate appearances fewer, meaning Ellsbury might hope to approach 540 or 550 plate appearances should he play in the nine hole most days.

But we also know that this figure represents the best possible upside.

Judging from Chris Cwik’s column on Friday, Ellsbury, J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron and David Ortiz may be splitting some time in the outfield and at DH, provided the tam does not move one of the group in the next few weeks.

After considering this group, the best probable scenario has Cameron as more or less a fourth outfielder and Ortiz as a platoon DH. Ortiz did put up a .268 wOBA against lefties last year, his third straight year of below-average work against southpaws. That’s 200 PAs that could go to someone else next year. Drew has been injured off and on the last few years, and usually ends up around 550 PAs, which is about 100 PAs short of a full ride in right field and his position in the lineup.

Would Mike Cameron be okay with 300 PAs? That would allow Ellsbury to enjoy 550 plate appearances in center field. The team says that they rate Ellsbury’s defense as above-average, and Cameron’s defense fell off, but short-sample UZRs are not so useful. If the two of them instead split the 850 plate appearances – meaning everyone stays healthy and Cameron and Ellsbury are essentially sharing center and the leftover PAs in right and at DH – then you’re looking at 425 PAs for Ellsbury.

This is no science, but you’re looking at a range between 400 and 550 plate appearances for Ellsbury most likely, and a risk that he gets only 350 or so as the backup. That means the real best case scenario – 550 plate appearances – would have Ellsbury with 153 hits, 83 runs and 48 steals using Bill James projections. That could be helpful if his draft spot drops, but the risk – 350 plate appearances – is that he ends up with 97 hits, 53 runs and 30 stolen bases.

And those projections are all using Bill James’ numbers, oft thought to be the rosiest of the mainstream projections.

Edit: On Saturday, this came through the interwebs:

Red Sox manager Terry Francona expects to bat Carl Crawford second or third in 2011, with Jacoby Ellsbury leading off.
“I’ll sit down with Carl, I’ll sit down with Pedey,” Francona said. “Obviously, he’s going to hit somewhere in the top of the order, second or third. But we want to have some balance, as much as we can, with Adrian and Youk following and David (Ortiz) and J.D. (Drew). There’s some things to think about.” We doubt Pedroia will be dropped in the order, so we tentatively expect him to hit second and Pedroia to bat third.

There’s a lot of risk here. I’m not even sure that more information in Spring Training will remove that uncertainty. Draft Ellsbury at your own peril.

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we are using pick number instead of round again, so please vote accordingly. Also in today’s edition, we use a suggestion from the audience, specifically reader “phoenix2042.”

Robinson Cano’s 2010 breakout was huge for a multitude of reasons. Some pertaining to fantasy baseball, and some that were more relevant to real life ballin’. Sometimes, when we see a player improve his power numbers, we’ll see a drop in batting average due to a changed swing and/or more strikeouts while going for the big one. This was not the case for Cano, who’s batting average dropped a single point despite a higher (yet still low) strikeout rate.

Cano’s now shown me that he can be a consistent .320 hitter if his BABIP doesn’t screw him, and entering his age-28 season, we could see even more pop from the middle infielder. He hit 29 dingers last season, so surpassing 30 would be pretty easy.

Cano has had over 600 plate appearances in each of the past four seasons, and has never made less than 500 trips to the plate in his career. He’s durable, plays a premium position for a good team, and produces at a high rate. This guys a first round pick, for sure, but how high should he really go in the first? That’s for y’all to decide.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. This time around, we’re using pick number instead of round, as it works a little better for top players. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here. And while you’re at it, why not submit a fan projection for Cano by clicking here?